Theoretical Framework and Empirical Modeling for Time Required to Vaccinate a Population in an Epidemic

The paper describes a method to understand time required to vaccinate against viruses in total as well as subpopulations. As a demonstration, a model based estimate for time required to vaccinate H1N1 in India, given its administrative difficulties is provided. We have proved novel theorems for the time functions defined in the paper. Such results are useful in planning for future epidemics. The number of days required to vaccinate entire high risk population in three subpopulations (villages, tehsils and towns) are noted to be 84, 89 and 88 respectively. There exists state wise disparities in the health infrastructure and capacities to deliver vaccines and hence national estimates need to be re-evaluated based on individual performances in the states.Comment: 14 pages, 1 Table, 5 Figures (A preliminary draft

Audit market structure, fees and choice in a period of structural change: evidence from the UK – 1998–2003

This paper presents evidence on audit market concentration and auditor fee levels in the UK market in the crucial period of structural change following the PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) merger and encompassing Andersen’s demise (1998–2003). Given the current interest in auditor choice, analysis is also undertaken at the individual audit firm level and by industry sector. There is evidence of significant upward pressure on audit fees since 2001 but only for smaller auditees. Audit fee income for top tier auditors (Big 5/4) did not change significantly while the number of auditees fell significantly, consistent with a move towards larger, less risky, clients. A decomposition analysis of the aggregate Big 5/4 concentration ratio changes over the period identifies the impact of four distinct consumer-based reasons for change: leavers; net joiners; non-par auditor switches; and (only for the audit fees measure) audit fee changes. Andersen’s demise markedly reduced the level of inequality among the top tier firms but PwC retained its position as a ‘dominant firm’. On switching to the new auditor, former Andersen clients experienced an initial audit fee rise broadly in line with inflation, with no evidence of fee premia or discounting. They also reported significantly lower NAS fees, consistent with audit firms and auditees responding to public concerns about perceptions of auditor independence. There is no general evidence of knowledge spillover effects or cross-subsidisation of the audit fee by NAS. The combined findings provide no evidence to indicate that recent structural changes have resulted in anticompetitive pricing; the key concerns remain the lack of audit firm choice and issues concerning the governance and accountability of audit firms

Guest Workers in the Underground Economy

Guest-worker programs have been providing rapidly growing economies with millions of foreign workers over the last couple of decades. With the duration of stay strictly limited by program rules in some host countries and wages paid to guest workers often set at sub-market levels, many migrants choose to overstay and seek unauthorized employment. The model we develop examines how the wage of illegal aliens and the flow of guest workers transiting to undocumented status are affected by the rules of the program, enforcement measures of the host country, and market conditions facing migrants at home and abroad. Lengthening the duration of official work permits is found to decrease the stock of undocumented workers, but it has an ambiguous effect on their wage. An expansion in the allowed inflow of documented guest workers has a negative impact on the wage of undocumented workers and an ambiguous effect on their stock

Measurements of daily energy intake and total energy expenditure in people with dementia in care homes: the use of wearable technology.

Objectives: To estimate daily total energy expenditure (TEE) using a physical activity monitor, combined with dietary assessment of energy intake to assess the relationship between daily energy expenditure and patterns of activity with energy intake in people with dementia living in care homes. Design and setting: A cross-sectional study in care homes in the UK. Participants: Twenty residents with confirmed dementia diagnosis were recruited from two care homes that specialised in dementia care. Measurements: A physical activity monitor (Sensewear TM Armband , Body Media, Pittsburgh, PA) was employed to objectively determine total energy expenditure, sleep duration and physical activity. The armband was placed around the left upper triceps for up to 7 days. Energy intake was determined by weighing all food and drink items over 4 days (3 weekdays and 1 weekend day) including measurements of food wastage. Results: The mean age was 78.7 (SD ± 11.8) years, Body Mass Index (BMI) 23.0 (SD ± 4.2) kg/m2 ; 50% were women. Energy intake (mean 7.4; SD ± 2.6) MJ/d) was correlated with TEE (mean 7.6; SD ± 1.8 MJ/d; r=0.49, p<0.05). Duration of sleeping ranged from 0.4-12.5 (mean 6.1) hrs/d and time spent lying down was 1.3-16.0 (8.3) hrs/d. On average residents spent 17.9 (6.3-23.4) hrs/d undertaking sedentary activity. TEE was correlated with BMI (r=0.52, p<0.05) and body weight (r=0.81, p<0.001) but inversely related to sleep duration (r=-0.59, p<0.01) and time lying down (r=-0.62, p<0.01). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that after taking BMI, sleep duration and time spent lying down into account, TEE was no longer correlated with energy intake. Conclusions: The results show the extent to which body mass, variable activity and sleep patterns may be contributing to TEE and together with reduced energy intake, energy requirements were not satisfied. Thus wearable technology has the potential to offer real-time monitoring to provide appropriate nutrition management that is more person-centred to prevent weight loss in dementi

Characterization and source identification of fine particulate matter in urban Beijing during the 2015 Spring Festival

The Spring Festival (SF) is the most important holiday in China for family reunion and tourism. During the 2015 SF an intensive observation campaign of air quality was conducted to study the impact of the anthropogenic activities and the dynamic characteristics of the sources. During the study period, pollution episodes frequently occurred with 12 days exceeding the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards for 24-h average PM2.5 (75 μg/m3), even 8 days with exceeding 150 μg/m3. The daily maximum PM2.5 concentration reached 350 μg/m3 while the hourly minimum visibility was <0.8 km. Three pollution episodes were selected for detailed analysis including chemical characterization and diurnal variation of the PM2.5 and its chemical composition, and sources were identified using the Positive Matrix Factorization model. The first episode occurring before the SF was characterized by more formation of SO42− and NO3− and high crustal enrichment factors for Ag, As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, Se and Zn and seven categories of pollution sources were identified, whereby vehicle emission contributed 38% to the PM2.5. The second episode occurring during the SF was affected heavily by large-scale firework emissions, which led to a significant increase in SO42−, Cl−, OC, K and Ba; these emissions were the largest contributor to the PM2.5 accounting for 36%. During the third episode occurring after the SF, SO42−, NO3−, NH4+ and OC were the major constituents of the PM2.5 and the secondary source was the dominant source with a contribution of 46%. The results provide a detailed understanding on the variation in occurrence, chemical composition and sources of the PM2.5 as well as of the gaseous pollutants affected by the change in anthropogenic activities in Beijing throughout the SF. They highlight the need for limiting the firework emissions during China's most important traditional festival

Environmental impact assessments of the Three Gorges Project in China: issues and interventions

The paper takes China's authoritative Environmental Impact Statement for the Yangzi (Yangtze) Three Gorges Project (TGP) in 1992 as a benchmark against which to evaluate emerging major environmental outcomes since the initial impoundment of the Three Gorges reservoir in 2003. The paper particularly examines five crucial environmental aspects and associated causal factors. The five domains include human resettlement and the carrying capacity of local environments (especially land), water quality, reservoir sedimentation and downstream riverbed erosion, soil erosion, and seismic activity and geological hazards. Lessons from the environmental impact assessments of the TGP are: (1) hydro project planning needs to take place at a broader scale, and a strategic environmental assessment at a broader scale is necessary in advance of individual environmental impact assessments; (2) national policy and planning adjustments need to react quickly to the impact changes of large projects; (3) long-term environmental monitoring systems and joint operations with other large projects in the upstream areas of a river basin should be established, and the cross-impacts of climate change on projects and possible impacts of projects on regional or local climate considered. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.Xibao Xu, Yan Tan, Guishan Yan

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade: The impact of demand reduction and enforcement efforts by China from 2005 – 2017

African elephants are iconic species threatened by poaching and China was considered as one of the main destinations for illegally sourced ivory. In this article we combine two surveys of ivory carving enterprises with other data sets, including Chinese government seizure statistics, market prices for illegal ivory and substitute goods, to understand the impact of enforcement and demand reduction measures on ivory prices and poaching. Our analysis indicates the strong enforcement measures to combat ivory smuggling temporarily suppressed the tendency of illegal trade while stimulating a steep rise in illegal ivory prices thereafter. Peaking in 2012–2013, prices thereafter fell due to government measures to reduce demand under China's ‘Ecological Civilization’ programme and the announcement of ‘The Eight-point Regulation of the Centre’. Our survey suggests that most Chinese carving enterprises were intending to close or to diversify their business activities away from ivory carving as a result of the total ban on domestic ivory trading by 31st December 2017. And China had banned domestic ivory trade for over half a year and all ivory carving enterprises closed their ivory business activities since this domestic ban. In order to prevent ivory demand in other countries that may undermine Chinese efforts, we argue that other countries now also need to adopt multifaceted actions to curtail their domestic ivory trade

Conceptualising fields of action for sustainable intensification A systematic literature review and application to regional case studies

[EN] After two decades of research on sustainable intensification (SI), namely securing food production on less environmental cost, heterogeneous understandings and perspectives prevail in a broad and partly fragmented scientific literature. Structuring and consolidating contributions to provide practice-oriented guidelines are lacking. The objectives of this study are to (1) comprehensively explore the academic SI literature, (2) propose an implementation-oriented conceptual framework, and (3) demonstrate its applicability for region-specific problem settings. In a systematic literature review of 349 papers covering the international literature of 20 years of SI research, we identified SI practices and analysed temporal, spatial and disciplinary trends and foci. Based on key SI practices, a conceptual framework was developed differentiating four fields of action from farm to regional and landscape scale and from land use to structural optimisation. Its applicability to derive region specific SI solutions was successfully tested through stakeholder processes in four European case studies. Disciplinary boundaries and the separation of the temporal and spatial strands in the literature prevent a holistic address of SI. This leads to the dominance of research describing SI practices in isolation, mainly on the farm scale. Coordinated actions on the regional scale and the coupling of multiple practices are comparatively un-derrepresented. Results from the case studies demonstrate that implementation is extremely context-sensitive and thus crucially depends on the situational knowledge of farmers and stakeholders. Although, there is no 'one size fits all' solution, practitioners in all regions identified the need for integrated solutions and common action to implement suitable SI strategies at the regional landscape level and in local ecosystems.This research was financially supported by the European Commission under grant agreement 652615 and conducted in the context of the ERA-Net FACCE SURPLUS project VITAL, with the national funders NWO (Netherlands), BMBF (Germany), INIA (Spain), ANR (France).Weltin, M.; Zasada, I.; Piorr, A.; Debolini, M.; Geniaux, G.; Moreno-Pérez, OM.; Scherer, L.... (2018). Conceptualising fields of action for sustainable intensification A systematic literature review and application to regional case studies. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment. 257:68-80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2018.01.023S688025