Hot Streaks in Artistic, Cultural, and Scientific Careers

The hot streak, loosely defined as winning begets more winnings, highlights a specific period during which an individual's performance is substantially higher than her typical performance. While widely debated in sports, gambling, and financial markets over the past several decades, little is known if hot streaks apply to individual careers. Here, building on rich literature on lifecycle of creativity, we collected large-scale career histories of individual artists, movie directors and scientists, tracing the artworks, movies, and scientific publications they produced. We find that, across all three domains, hit works within a career show a high degree of temporal regularity, each career being characterized by bursts of high-impact works occurring in sequence. We demonstrate that these observations can be explained by a simple hot-streak model we developed, allowing us to probe quantitatively the hot streak phenomenon governing individual careers, which we find to be remarkably universal across diverse domains we analyzed: The hot streaks are ubiquitous yet unique across different careers. While the vast majority of individuals have at least one hot streak, hot streaks are most likely to occur only once. The hot streak emerges randomly within an individual's sequence of works, is temporally localized, and is unassociated with any detectable change in productivity. We show that, since works produced during hot streaks garner significantly more impact, the uncovered hot streaks fundamentally drives the collective impact of an individual, ignoring which leads us to systematically over- or under-estimate the future impact of a career. These results not only deepen our quantitative understanding of patterns governing individual ingenuity and success, they may also have implications for decisions and policies involving predicting and nurturing individuals with lasting impact

Geographic clustering of economic activity: The case of prominent western visual artists

This article compiles original data relating to artists’ place of birth and work migration patterns using various art history dictionaries. The broad historic pattern, from the 13th to the 20th century, of the birth locations of prominent artists is examined, followed by a detailed study of the work migration patterns of prominent artists in two important situations, namely Renaissance Italy and France in part of the 19th century. The evidence indicates a marked clustering of activity of prominent artists, both arising from birth location and migration patterns. Some possible explanations for the observed patterns are briefly outlined. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007Artists, Migration, Clustering, Z10,

Artistic styles: revisiting the analysis of modern artists’ careers

Modern artists, Age, Life cycle, Creativity, N80, Z11,