Mapping the multi-faceted: Determinants of uncertainty in safety-critical projects

© 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Association for Project Management and the International Project Management Association. Project managers tasked with delivering safety-critical projects must demonstrate care, competence and confidence right from the earliest stages of project inception, when levels of uncertainty can be very high. Based on interviews with 30 project management practitioners in civil nuclear and aerospace sectors, this paper builds on work by Saunders et al. (2015), who posited the Uncertainty Kaleidoscope as a framework for identifying uncertainties. Our findings are that the six determinants of project uncertainty are similar across both civil nuclear and aerospace projects. The most commonly mentioned determinant of project uncertainty was the Environment, followed by Complexity, Capability and Information. The impact of Time on project uncertainty and Individual perceptions of uncertainty were mentioned less frequently by respondents. Our key contribution is to validate the Uncertainty Kaleidoscope over a larger data set, thereby enriching our understanding of the sources of project uncertainty in these two important and highly-consequential project environments

Responding to project uncertainty: Evidence for high reliability practices in large-scale safety–critical projects

In large-scale safety–critical projects unforeseen events and uncertainties must be carefully managed to safeguard the integrity of the end product and deliver projects to time and cost. Based on 47 ‘vignettes’ of uncertainty across projects in two safety–critical sectors, this study provides an empirical examination of whether practices consistent with theories of high reliability organising are adopted by project managers as a response to project uncertainty. Our findings are that confronting uncertainties in safety–critical projects do involve many high reliability practices. Respondents expressed a sense of balancing competing demands, and provided evidence of learning, acting mindfully, avoiding over-rigid processes, and of upholding constructive tensions, conceptual slack and close interdisciplinary working. However these practices are often fragile in nature and dependent on key individuals. There are also differences between the two sectors studied, with more widespread evidence of high reliability project organising in civil nuclear than in aerospace projects

Combinatorial Conflicting Homozygosity (CCH) analysis enables the rapid identification of shared genomic regions in the presence of multiple phenocopies.

The ability to identify regions of the genome inherited with a dominant trait in one or more families has become increasingly valuable with the wide availability of high throughput sequencing technology. While a number of methods exist for mapping of homozygous variants segregating with recessive traits in consanguineous families, dominant conditions are conventionally analysed by linkage analysis, which requires computationally demanding haplotype reconstruction from marker genotypes and, even using advanced parallel approximation implementations, can take substantial time, particularly for large pedigrees. In addition, linkage analysis lacks sensitivity in the presence of phenocopies (individuals sharing the trait but not the genetic variant responsible). Combinatorial Conflicting Homozygosity (CCH) analysis uses high density biallelic single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker genotypes to identify genetic loci within which consecutive markers are not homozygous for different alleles. This allows inference of identical by descent (IBD) inheritance of a haplotype among a set or subsets of related or unrelated individuals

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) as a therapeutic target to prevent retinal vasopermeability during diabetes

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) hydrolyses oxidized low-density lipoproteins into proinflammatory products, which can have detrimental effects on vascular function. As a specific inhibitor of Lp-PLA2, darapladib has been shown to be protective against atherogenesis and vascular leakage in diabetic and hypercholesterolemic animal models. This study has investigated whether Lp-PLA2 and its major enzymatic product, lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC), are involved in blood-retinal barrier (BRB) damage during diabetic retinopathy. We assessed BRB protection in diabetic rats through use of species-specific analogs of darapladib. Systemic Lp-PLA2 inhibition using SB-435495 at 10 mg/kg (i.p.) effectively suppressed BRB breakdown in streptozotocin-diabetic Brown Norway rats. This inhibitory effect was comparable to intravitreal VEGF neutralization, and the protection against BRB dysfunction was additive when both targets were inhibited simultaneously. Mechanistic studies in primary brain and retinal microvascular endothelial cells, as well as occluded rat pial microvessels, showed that luminal but not abluminal LPC potently induced permeability, and that this required signaling by the VEGF receptor 2 (VEGFR2). Taken together, this study demonstrates that Lp-PLA2 inhibition can effectively prevent diabetes-mediated BRB dysfunction and that LPC impacts on the retinal vascular endothelium to induce vasopermeability via VEGFR2. Thus, Lp-PLA2 may be a useful therapeutic target for patients with diabetic macular edema (DME), perhaps in combination with currently administered anti-VEGF agents

Construction and Random Generation of Hypergraphs with Prescribed Degree and Dimension Sequences

We propose algorithms for construction and random generation of hypergraphs without loops and with prescribed degree and dimension sequences. The objective is to provide a starting point for as well as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. Our algorithms leverage the transposition of properties and algorithms devised for matrices constituted of zeros and ones with prescribed row- and column-sums to hypergraphs. The construction algorithm extends the applicability of Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches when the initial hypergraph is not provided. The random generation algorithm allows the development of a self-normalised importance sampling estimator for hypergraph properties such as the average clustering coefficient.We prove the correctness of the proposed algorithms. We also prove that the random generation algorithm generates any hypergraph following the prescribed degree and dimension sequences with a non-zero probability. We empirically and comparatively evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the random generation algorithm. Experiments show that the random generation algorithm provides stable and accurate estimates of average clustering coefficient, and also demonstrates a better effective sample size in comparison with the Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figure

An electronic health records cohort study on heart failure following myocardial infarction in England: incidence and predictors

Objectives: To investigate the incidence and determinants of heart failure (HF) following a myocardial infarction (MI) in a contemporary cohort of patients with MI using routinely collected primary and hospital care electronic health records (EHRs). Methods: Data were used from the CALIBER programme, linking EHRs in England from primary care, hospital admissions, an MI registry and mortality data. Subjects were eligible if they were 18 years or older, did not have a history of HF and survived a first MI. Factors associated with time to HF were examined using Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Of the 24 479 patients with MI, 5775 (23.6%) developed HF during a median follow-up of 3.7 years (incidence rate per 1000 person-years: 63.8, 95% CI 62.2 to 65.5). Baseline characteristics significantly associated with developing HF were: atrial fibrillation (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.51 to 1.75), age (per 10 years increase: 1.45, 1.41 to 1.49), diabetes (1.45, 1.35 to 1.56), peripheral arterial disease (1.38, 1.26 to 1.51), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.28, 1.17 to 1.40), greater socioeconomic deprivation (5th vs 1st quintile: 1.27, 1.13 to 1.41), ST-segment elevation MI at presentation (1.19, 1.11 to 1.27) and hypertension (1.16, 1.09 to 1.23). Results were robust to various sensitivity analyses such as competing risk analysis and multiple imputation. Conclusion: In England, one in four survivors of a first MI develop HF within 4 years. This contemporary study demonstrates that patients with MI are at considerable risk of HF. Baseline patient characteristics associated with time until HF were identified, which may be used to target preventive strategies

Over-expression of Eph and ephrin genes in advanced ovarian cancer: ephrin gene expression correlates with shortened survival

BACKGROUND: Increased expression of Eph receptor tyrosine kinases and their ephrin ligands has been implicated in tumor progression in a number of malignancies. This report describes aberrant expression of these genes in ovarian cancer, the commonest cause of death amongst gynaecological malignancies. METHODS: Eph and ephrin expression was determined using quantitative real time RT-PCR. Correlation of gene expression was measured using Spearman's rho statistic. Survival was analysed using log-rank analysis and (was visualised by) Kaplan-Meier survival curves. RESULTS: Greater than 10 fold over-expression of EphA1 and a more modest over-expression of EphA2 were observed in partially overlapping subsets of tumors. Over-expression of EphA1 strongly correlated (r = 0.801; p < 0.01) with the high affinity ligand ephrin A1. A similar trend was observed between EphA2 and ephrin A1 (r = 0.387; p = 0.06). A striking correlation of both ephrin A1 and ephrin A5 expression with poor survival (r = -0.470; p = 0.02 and r = -0.562; p < 0.01) was observed. Intriguingly, there was no correlation between survival and other clinical parameters or Eph expression. CONCLUSION: These data imply that increased levels of ephrins A1 and A5 in the presence of high expression of Ephs A1 and A2 lead to a more aggressive tumor phenotype. The known functions of Eph/ephrin signalling in cell de-adhesion and movement may explain the observed correlation of ephrin expression with poor prognosis

Experimental assessment of pro-lymphangiogenic growth factors in the treatment of post-surgical lymphedema following lymphadenectomy

Introduction: Lymphedema is a frequent consequence of lymph node excision during breast cancer surgery. Current treatment options are limited mainly to external compression therapies to limit edema development. We investigated previously, postsurgical lymphedema in a sheep model following the removal of a single lymph node and determined that autologous lymph node transplantation has the potential to reduce or prevent edema development. In this report, we examine the potential of lymphangiogenic therapy to restore lymphatic function and reduce postsurgical lymphedema. Methods: Lymphangiogenic growth factors (vascular endothelial growth factor C (VEGF-C)) and angiopoietin-2 (ANG-2) were loaded into a gel-based drug delivery system (HAMC; a blend of hyaluronan and methylcellulose). Drug release rates and lymphangiogenic signaling in target endothelial cells were assessed in vitro and vascular permeability biocompatibility tests were examined in vivo. Following, the removal of a single popliteal lymph node, HAMC with the growth factors was injected into the excision site. Six weeks later, lymphatic functionality was assessed by injecting 125Iodine radiolabeled bovine serum albumin (125I-BSA) into prenodal vessels and measuring its recovery in plasma. Circumferential leg measurements were plotted over time and areas under the curves used to quantify edema formation. Results: The growth factors were released over a two-week period in vitro by diffusion from HAMC, with 50% being released in the first 24 hr. The system induced lymphangiogenic signaling in target endothelial cells, while inducing only a minimal inflammatory response in sheep. Removal of the node significantly reduced lymphatic functionality (nodectomy 1.9 ± 0.9, HAMC alone 1.7 ± 0.8) compared with intact groups (3.2 ± 0.7). In contrast, there was no significant difference between the growth factor treatment group (2.3 ± 0.73) and the intact group indicating improved function with the molecular factors. An increase in the number of regenerated lymphatic vessels at treatment sites was observed with fluoroscopy. Groups receiving HAMC plus growth factors displayed significantly reduced edema (107.4 ± 51.3) compared with nontreated groups (nodectomy 219.8 ± 118.7 and HAMC alone 162.6 ± 141). Conclusions: Growth factor therapy has the potential to increase lymphatic function and reduce edema magnitude in an animal model of lymphedema. The application of this concept to lymphedema patients warrants further examination

A Nested Case-Control Study of Intrauterine Exposure to Persistent Organochlorine Pollutants in Relation to Risk of Type 1 Diabetes

BACKGROUND: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in Europe is increasing at a rate of about 3% per year and there is also an increasing incidence throughout the world. Type 1 diabetes is a complex disease caused by multiple genetic and environmental factors. Persistent organochlorine pollutants (POPs) have been suggested as a triggering factor for developing childhood type 1 diabetes. The aim of this case-control study was to assess possible impacts of in utero exposure to POPs on type 1 diabetes. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study was performed as a case-control study within a biobank in Malmö, a city located in the Southern part of Sweden. The study included 150 cases (children who had their diagnosis mostly before 18 years of age) and 150 controls, matched for gender and day of birth. 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB-153) and the major DDT metabolite 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis (p-chlorophenyl)-ethylene (p,p'-DDE) were used as a biomarkers for POP exposure. When comparing the quartile with the highest maternal serum concentrations of PCB-153 with the other quartiles, an odds ratio (OR) of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42, 1.27) was obtained. Similar results was obtained for p,p'-DDE (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.29, 1.08). CONCLUSIONS: The hypothesis that in utero exposure to POPs will trigger the risk for developing type 1 diabetes was not supported by the results. The risk estimates did, although not statistically significant, go in the opposite direction. However, it is not reasonable to believe that exposure to POPs should protect against type 1 diabetes

GABAergic Neuron Deficit As An Idiopathic Generalized Epilepsy Mechanism: The Role Of BRD2 Haploinsufficiency In Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy

Idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) syndromes represent about 30% of all epilepsies. They have strong, but elusive, genetic components and sex-specific seizure expression. Multiple linkage and population association studies have connected the bromodomain-containing gene BRD2 to forms of IGE. In mice, a null mutation at the homologous Brd2 locus results in embryonic lethality while heterozygous Brd2+/− mice are viable and overtly normal. However, using the flurothyl model, we now show, that compared to the Brd2+/+ littermates, Brd2+/− males have a decreased clonic, and females a decreased tonic-clonic, seizure threshold. Additionally, long-term EEG/video recordings captured spontaneous seizures in three out of five recorded Brd2+/− female mice. Anatomical analysis of specific regions of the brain further revealed significant differences in Brd2+/− vs +/+ mice. Specifically, there were decreases in the numbers of GABAergic (parvalbumin- or GAD67-immunopositive) neurons along the basal ganglia pathway, i.e., in the neocortex and striatum of Brd2+/− mice, compared to Brd2+/+ mice. There were also fewer GABAergic neurons in the substantia nigra reticulata (SNR), yet there was a minor, possibly compensatory increase in the GABA producing enzyme GAD67 in these SNR cells. Further, GAD67 expression in the superior colliculus and ventral medial thalamic nucleus, the main SNR outputs, was significantly decreased in Brd2+/− mice, further supporting GABA downregulation. Our data show that the non-channel-encoding, developmentally critical Brd2 gene is associated with i) sex-specific increases in seizure susceptibility, ii) the development of spontaneous seizures, and iii) seizure-related anatomical changes in the GABA system, supporting BRD2's involvement in human IGE