Expected long-term budgetary benefits to Roma education in Hungary

This study estimates the expected long-term budgetary benefits to investing into Roma education in Hungary. By budgetary benefits we mean the direct financial benefits to the national budget. The main idea is that investing extra public money into Roma education would pay off even in fiscal terms. In order to be successful, investments should take place in early childhood. Successful investments are also expensive. But if it is done the right way, such investments more than recoup their costs in terms of extra tax benefits in the future. This study looks at the expected budgetary benefits of a successful investment. It does no deal with how to achieve success. The motivating idea behind our analysis is the notion that investing into somebody's education will lead to benefits not only to the person in question but also to the whole society. We consider these social benefits in a very narrow sense: we make use the fact that in a typical modern society, more education makes people contribute more to the national budget and/or receive less transfers from it. The increased contributions and decreased transfers make up the net budgetary benefits. Net budgetary benefits measure a return on investments into education, very much like returns on any other financial investment. If expected returns more than compensate for such investments, it is in the very narrow interest of the government to invest into Roma education, even setting aside other consideration. We estimate the net benefit of an extra investment (on top of existing pre-school and primary school financing) that enables a young Roma to successfully complete secondary school. We consider an investment that takes place (starts at) at age 4, i.e. we calculate the long-term benefits discounted to age 4. We estimate returns to an investment that makes Roma children complete the maturity examination ("erettsegi") and opens the road to college, instead of stopping at 8 grades of primary school (or dropping out of secondary school). We consider seven channels: personal income tax on income earned from registered fulltime employment, social security contributions paid by employers and employees on earned income, unemployment benefits, means-tested welfare benefits, earning from public employment projects, value added and excise tax on consumption, and incarceration costs. We adjust our estimates by the extra costs of increased secondary and college education. We use large sample surveys, aggregate administrative data, and tax and contribution rules to estimate the necessary parameters. The analysis is nonexperimental and is based on national estimates adjusted for Roma differences. The lack of detailed Roma data and lack of experimental evidence makes interpretation somewhat problematic. We therefore carry out extensive robustness checks for analyzing alternative assumptions. One should keep in mind that, for lack of appropriate data, we leave out important channels such as old-age pensions, disability pensions, childcare benefits, and health care costs. Including most of these channels would most likely increase the estimated benefits to educational investments. Our estimates are therefore most likely lower bounds for the expected budgetary benefits. The results indicate that an investment that makes one young Roma successfully complete secondary school would yield significant direct long-term benefits to the national budget. According to our benchmark estimate, discounted to age 4 (a possible starting age for such an investment), the present value of the future benefits is about HUF 19M (EUR 70,000) relative to the value the government would collect on the representative person in case if she had not continued her studies after the primary school. The benefits are somewhat smaller if (without the suggested early childhood educational investment), the young Roma person finished vocational training school (HUF 15M, EUR 55,000). The estimated returns are sensitive to the discount rate, the assumed wage growth, the college completion rate after secondary school, and the race specific employment and wage differentials (to some extent due to labor market discrimination). But even our most conservative estimates suggest that benefits are least HUF 7M - 9M. We formulate all results in terms of the benefits of an investment that makes one child successfully complete secondary school, for methodological convenience. Naturally, no investment is certain to bring such a result. When comparing benefits to costs, one has to factor in the success probabilities. For example, if an investment increases the chance of secondary school completion by 20 percentage points, i.e. one child out of five gets there as a result of the investment, benchmark benefits relative to 8 grades are HUF 3.8M (19M/5). In other words, 3.8M per child investment would therefore break even with a 20% success rate. Even by looking at our most conservative estimates, any investment with such a success rate is almost sure to yield a positive return if costs are HUF 1.8M or less per child. Overwhelmingly, the benefits would come from increased government revenues, from personal income tax and employer/employee contributions after earned income. Savings on unemployment insurance, welfare benefits and public employment projects are negligible, and savings on incarceration costs are also small. Larger value added tax benefits on consumption are also sizable.Roma Minority, Education, Poverty, Hungary

The Roma/Non-Roma Test Score Gap in Hungary

This paper documents and decomposes the test score gap between Roma and non-Roma 8th graders in Hungary in 2006. Our data connect national standardized test scores to an individual panel survey with detailed data on ethnicity and family background. The test score gap is approximately one standard deviation for both reading and mathematics, which is similar to the gap between African-American and White students of the same age group in the US in the 1980s. After accounting for on health, parenting, school fixed effects and family background, the gap disappears in reading and drops to 0.15 standard deviation in mathematics.

The Roma/non-Roma Test Score Gap in Hungary

This paper documents and decomposes the test score gap between Roma and non-Roma 8th graders in Hungary in 2006. Our data connect national standardized test scores to an individual panel survey with detailed data on ethnicity and family background. The test score gap is approximately one standard deviation for both reading and mathematics, which is similar to the gap between African-American and White students of the same age group in the U.S. in the 1980s. After accounting for on health, parenting, school fixed effects and family background, the gap disappears in reading and drops to 0.15 standard deviation in mathematics. Health, parenting and schools explain most of the gap, but ethnic differences in those are almost entirely accounted for by differences in parental education and income.test score gap, Roma minority, Hungary

On a possibly pure set-theoretic contribution to black hole entropy

Continuity as appears to us immediately by intuition (in the flow of time and in motion) differs from its current formalization, the arithmetical continuum or equivalently the set of real numbers used in modern mathematical analysis. Motivated by the known mathematical and physical problems arising from this formalization of the continuum, our aim in this paper is twofold. Firstly, by interpreting Chaitin's variant of G\"odel's first incompleteness theorem as an inherent uncertainty or fuzziness of the arithmetical continuum, a formal set-theoretic entropy is assigned to the arithmetical continuum. Secondly, by analyzing Noether's theorem on symmetries and conserved quantities, we argue that whenever the four dimensional space-time continuum containing a single, stationary, asymptotically flat black hole is modeled by the arithmetical continuum in the mathematical formulation of general relativity, the hidden set-theoretic entropy of this latter structure reveals itself as the entropy of the black hole (proportional to the area of its "instantaneous" event horizon), indicating that this apparently physical quantity might have a pure set-theoretic origin, too.Comment: LaTeX, 13 pp, no figures; final published versio

Ex-gang members who have become help-professionals : what influences their desistance from gang involvement and their career choice? : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Social Work in Social Work at Massey University, Auckland Campus, New Zealand

The growing population and changing structure of New Zealand gangs have been observed since the 1950s. Well-documented international and local research provides ample information about the process of gang affiliation and gang desistance. However, there is little specific knowledge generated nationally and internationally about the phenomenon of redemption-self (Maruna, 2001), which refers to male excriminal gang members taking part in generative exercises such as mentoring youth or counselling substance users. The present study recognises the gap in the literature and aims to develop a discussion and start a dialogue about the benefits of this littleappreciated uncommon phenomenon. To provide deeper understanding of what triggered and hindered ex-criminal gang members’ adoption of redemption-self, the qualitative study design, located in the social constructionist framework has been applied. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews with six male formercriminal gang members who have been working in the social service fields in New Zealand for at least two years. Through the thematic analysis of the men’s stories four primary themes emerged, which were organised into a thematic map. The primary themes present a continuum that starts with the men’s negative childhood experiences attributing to the later stage gang affiliation. The complicated, and often, zigzagged path trajectory of gang desistance, which was triggered by internal changes and external impacts, prepare the final theme’s essence - the adoption of redemption-self. Alongside the advantages and benefits of having experience in both the gang and conventional world when service provision is conducted, the difficulties of being accepted into the field with past criminal-gang affiliation is discussed. The four primary themes’ content provides the basis of this discussion. The conclusion of the thesis draws on local and overseas programs and initiatives to formulate recommendation for policies, educational initiatives and implications for future research topics