Modelling the Effects of Population Structure on Childhood Disease: The Case of Varicella

Realistic, individual-based models based on detailed census data are increasingly used to study disease transmission. Whether the rich structure of such models improves predictions is debated. This is studied here for the spread of varicella, a childhood disease, in a realistic population of children where infection occurs in the household, at school, or in the community at large. A methodology is first presented for simulating households with births and aging. Transmission probabilities were fitted for schools and community, which reproduced the overall cumulative incidence of varicella over the age range of 0–11 years old

Properties of an Interplanetary Shock Observed at 0.07 and 0.7 au by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter

Abstract The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO) missions opened a new observational window in the inner heliosphere, which is finally accessible to direct measurements. On 2022 September 5, a coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven interplanetary (IP) shock was observed as close as 0.07 au by PSP. The CME then reached SolO, which was radially well-aligned at 0.7 au, thus providing us with the opportunity to study the shock properties at different heliocentric distances. We characterize the shock, investigate its typical parameters, and compare its small-scale features at both locations. Using the PSP observations, we investigate how magnetic switchbacks and ion cyclotron waves are processed upon shock crossing. We find that switchbacks preserve their V–B correlation while compressed upon the shock passage, and that the signature of ion cyclotron waves disappears downstream of the shock. By contrast, the SolO observations reveal a very structured shock transition, with a population of shock-accelerated protons of up to about 2 MeV, showing irregularities in the shock downstream, which we correlate with solar wind structures propagating across the shock. At SolO, we also report the presence of low-energy (∼100 eV) electrons scattering due to upstream shocklets. This study elucidates how the local features of IP shocks and their environments can be very different as they propagate through the heliosphere.</jats:p

Is tension band wiring technique the "gold standard" for the treatment of olecranon fractures? A long term functional outcome study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tension band wiring (TBW) remains the most common operative technique for the internal fixation of olecranon fractures despite the potential occurrence of subjective complaints due to subcutaneous position of the hardware. Aim of this long term retrospective study was to evaluate the elbow function and the patient-rated outcome after TBW fixation of olecranon fractures.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We reviewed 62 patients (33 men and 29 women) with an average age of 48.6 years (range, 18–85 years) who underwent TBW osteosynthesis for isolated olecranon fractures. All patients were assessed both clinically with measurement of flexion-extension and pronation-supination arcs and radiologically with elbow X-Rays. Functional outcome was estimated using the Mayo Elbow Performance Score (MEPS), Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) subjective pain score and VAS patient satisfaction score. Follow up: 6–13 years (average 8.2 years).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was a higher prevalence of fractures among men until the 5th decade of life and among women in elderly (p = 0.032). Slip or simple fall onto the arm was the main mechanism of injury for 38 fractures (61.3%) while high energy trauma, such as fall from a height (> 2 m) or road accident, was reported in 24 fractures (38.7%). Hardware removal performed in 51 patients (82.3%) but 34 of them (66.6% of removals) were still complaining for mild pain during daily activities. The incidence of pin migration and loosening was not statistically decreased when penetration of the anterior ulnar cortex was accomplished (p = 0.304). Supination was more often affected than pronation (p = 0.027). According to MEPS, 53 patients (85.5%) had a good to excellent result, 6 (9.7%) fair and 3 (4.8%) poor result. The average satisfaction rating was 9.3 out of 10 (range, 6–10) with 31 patients (50%) to remain completely satisfied from the final result. Degenerative changes recorded in 30 elbows (48.4%). However, no correlation could be found between radiographic findings and MEPS (p = 0.073).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Tension band wiring fixation remains the "gold standard" for the treatment of displaced and minimally comminuted olecranon fractures. In long term, low levels of pain may be evident regardless of whether the metalware is removed and degenerative changes have been developed.</p

Defining frequent attendance in general practice

Background: General practitioners (GPs) or researchers sometimes need to identify frequent attenders (FAs) in order to screen them for unidentified problems and to test specific interventions. We wanted to assess different methods for selecting FAs to identify the most feasible and effective one for use in a general (group) practice. Methods: In the second Dutch National Survey of General Practice, data were collected on 375 899 persons registered with 104 practices. Frequent attendance is defined as the top 3% and 10% of enlisted patients in each one-year age-sex group measured during the study year. We used these two selections as our reference standard. We also selected the top 3% and 10% FAs (90 and 97 percentile) based on four selection methods of diminishing preciseness. We compared the test characteristics of these four methods. Results: Of all enlisted patients, 24 % did not consult the practice during the study year. The mean number of contacts in the top 10% FAs increased in men from 5.8 (age 15-24 years) to 17.5 (age 64-75 years) and in women from 9.7 to 19.8. In the top 3% of FAs, contacts increased in men from 9.2 to 24.5 and in women from 14 to 27.8. The selection of FAs becomes more precise when smaller age classes are used. All selection methods show acceptable results (kappa 0.849 - 0.942) except the three group method. Conclusion: To correctly identify frequent attenders in general practice, we recommend dividing patients into at least three age groups per se

Study of the reaction e^{+}e^{-} -->J/psi\pi^{+}\pi^{-} via initial-state radiation at BaBar

We study the process $e^+e^-\to J/\psi\pi^{+}\pi^{-}$ with initial-state-radiation events produced at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy collider. The data were recorded with the BaBar detector at center-of-mass energies 10.58 and 10.54 GeV, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 454 $\mathrm{fb^{-1}}$. We investigate the $J/\psi \pi^{+}\pi^{-}$ mass distribution in the region from 3.5 to 5.5 $\mathrm{GeV/c^{2}}$. Below 3.7 $\mathrm{GeV/c^{2}}$ the $\psi(2S)$ signal dominates, and above 4 $\mathrm{GeV/c^{2}}$ there is a significant peak due to the Y(4260). A fit to the data in the range 3.74 -- 5.50 $\mathrm{GeV/c^{2}}$ yields a mass value $4244 \pm 5$ (stat) $\pm 4$ (syst)$\mathrm{MeV/c^{2}}$ and a width value $114 ^{+16}_{-15}$ (stat)$\pm 7$(syst)$\mathrm{MeV}$ for this state. We do not confirm the report from the Belle collaboration of a broad structure at 4.01 $\mathrm{GeV/c^{2}}$. In addition, we investigate the $\pi^{+}\pi^{-}$ system which results from Y(4260) decay

Characterisation of a divergent progenitor cell sub-populations in human osteoarthritic cartilage: the role of telomere erosion and replicative senescence

In recent years it has become increasingly clear that articular cartilage harbours a viable pool ofprogenitor cells and interest has focussed on their role during development and disease. Analysis ofprogenitor numbers using fluorescence-activated sorting techniques has resulted in wide-rangingestimates, which may be the result of context-dependent expression of cell surface markers. Wehave used a colony-forming assay to reliably determine chondroprogenitor numbers in normal andosteoarthritic cartilage where we observed a 2-fold increase in diseased tissue (P &#60; 0.0001). Intriguingly,cell kinetic analysis of clonal isolates derived from single and multiple donors of osteoarthritic cartilagerevealed the presence of a divergent progenitor subpopulation characterised by an early senescentphenotype. Divergent sub-populations displayed increased senescence-associated β–galactosidaseactivity, lower average telomere lengths but retained the capacity to undergo multi-lineagedifferentiation. Osteoarthritis is an age-related disease and cellular senescence is predicted to be asignificant component of the pathological process. This study shows that although early senescenceis an inherent property of a subset of activated progenitors, there is also a pool of progenitors withextended viability and regenerative potential residing within osteoarthritic cartilage

Family history of breast cancer and young age at diagnosis of breast cancer increase risk of second primary malignancies in women: a population-based cohort study

Among 152 600 breast cancer patients diagnosed during 1958–2000, there was a 22% increased risk of developing a second primary non-breast malignancy (standardised incidence ratio (SIR)=1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19–1.24). The highest risk was seen for connective tissue cancer (SIR=1.78; 95% CI: 1.49–2.10). Increased risks were noted among women diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50. Oesophagus cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma showed six- and four-fold higher risks, respectively, in women with a family history of breast cancer compared to those without in the ⩾10-year follow-up period

Gain through losses in nonlinear optics

Instabilities of uniform states are ubiquitous processes occurring in a variety of spatially extended nonlinear systems. These instabilities are at the heart of symmetry breaking, condensate dynamics, self-organization, pattern formation and noise amplification across diverse disciplines, including physics, chemistry, engineering and biology. In nonlinear optics, modulation instabilities are generally linked to the so-called parametric amplification process, which occurs when certain phase-matching or quasi-phase-matching conditions are satisfied. In the present review article, we summarize the principle results on modulation instabilities and parametric amplification in nonlinear optics, with special emphasis on optical fibres. We then review state-of-the-art research about a peculiar class of modulation instabilities and signal amplification processes induced by dissipation in nonlinear optical systems. Losses applied to certain parts of the spectrum counterintuitively lead to the exponential growth of the damped mode themselves, causing gain through losses. We discuss the concept of imaging of losses into gain, showing how to map a given spectral loss profile into a gain spectrum. We demonstrate with concrete examples that dissipation-induced modulation instability, apart from being of fundamental theoretical interest, may pave the way towards the design of a new class of tuneable fibre-based optical amplifiers, optical parametric oscillators, frequency comb sources and pulsed lasers