A nonparametric approach for evaluating long-term energy policy scenarios: an application to the Greek energy system

This paper by using the system of LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System) constructs four different energy scenarios for the Greek transport, energy and industry sectors. By projecting the renewable energy use for the years 2020 and 2030 and the associated resulting carbon dioxide emissions, the paper constructs through nonparametric analysis efficiency measures evaluating the different energy policy which can be adopted. As a result it provides a quantitative measure of future policy performance under different energy consumption scenarios. The results reveal that the largest policy challenge for the Greek authorities will be the energy usage of the Greek industry since it is robust towards the adoption of renewable energy sources. It appears that under the four different policy scenarios the Greek industry sector will not be able to meet the environmental targets set by the Greek government. Finally, the analysis reveals that the targets for 2020 and 2030 can be met for the energy sector however for transport can only be met for the year 2030