Effects of meteorological factors on epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: a statistical modelling approach based on theoretical reasoning.

This study was conducted to quantify the association between meteorological variables and incidence of Plasmodium falciparum in areas with unstable malaria transmission in Ethiopia. We used morbidity data pertaining to microscopically confirmed cases reported from 35 sites throughout Ethiopia over a period of approximately 6-7 years. A model was developed reflecting biological relationships between meteorological and morbidity variables. A model that included rainfall 2 and 3 months earlier, mean minimum temperature of the previous month and P. falciparum case incidence during the previous month was fitted to morbidity data from the various areas. The model produced similar percentages of over-estimation (19.7% of predictions exceeded twice the observed values) and under-estimation (18.6%, were less than half the observed values). Inclusion of maximum temperature did not improve the model. The model performed better in areas with relatively high or low incidence (>85% of the total variance explained) than those with moderate incidence (55-85% of the total variance explained). The study indicated that a dynamic immunity mechanism is needed in a prediction model. The potential usefulness and drawbacks of the modelling approach in studying the weather-malaria relationship are discussed, including a need for mechanisms that can adequately handle temporal variations in immunity to malaria

DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN LONGITUDINAL AND CROSS-SECTIONAL CHANGE IN VENTILATORY FUNCTION IN 12 YEARS OF FOLLOW-UP

We compared the age dependence of cross-sectional and longitudinal changes in ventilatory function. FEV(1), FVC, and data on chronic respiratory symptoms were obtained from 4,395 adults in a longitudinal survey of normal populations in two different areas in the Netherlands. They participated in up to five surveys at 3-yr intervals between 1972 to 1973 and 1984 to 1985. The ventilatory function in the oldest cohorts is substantially lower than might have been expected from the longitudinal change in the youngest cohorts. This holds for males and females, smokers and nonsmokers, subjects with or without symptoms, and for both survey populations. The robustness of the findings is demonstrated by various data-analytic strategies or omitting one or two of the five surveys from the analysis. Selective loss to follow-up cannot explain the discrepancy. It is concluded that the main differences between our longitudinal and cross-sectional findings may be due to a cohort effect. The implication is that in longitudinal studies of populations at risk, reference equations based on cross-sectional surveys may overestimate longitudinal change and hence lead to underestimating effects of exposure. Similarly, in clinical studies, accelerated decline in ventilatory function may be underrated if it is compared with cross-sectional standards. In older people at any one age the ventilatory function seems to improve in successive birth cohorts

Diurnal variation in lung function in subgroups from two Dutch populations - Consequences for longitudinal analysis

We studied circadian variation in FVC, FEV1, PEF, TLC, VC, and RV between 9:00 A.M. and 9:00 P.M. and analyzed how this variation affected estimated longitudinal change. Data from 876 adults were obtained in a longitudinal survey of samples from two Dutch areas. Subjects participated in four surveys held at 3-yr intervals between 1975 and 1985. FVC, FEV1, PEF, and VC increased from 9:00 A.M. until noon and decreased afterwards. TLC was constant over the day, whereas RV decreased from 9:00 A.M. to noon. Average variation in FVC, FEV1 and PEF, expressed as percentages of average level, was 4.8% (200 ml), 2.8% (86 ml), and 3.1% (250 ml/s), respectively. These results are compatible with circadian changes in airway size. No differences in variability were found between men and women. Significantly larger changes between 9:00 A.M. and noon were found in young adults, smokers, and those with respiratory symptoms than in other subgroups. Adjustment for diurnal variation reduced, albeit slightly, residual standard deviations of estimated longitudinal declines. Average diurnal change was large relative to underlying longitudinal change. Its effect on longitudinal change within an individual can therefore be large depending on age, smoking habits, symptomatology, number of visits, time of measurement, and difference in time between measurements. However, when people are measured at random times during the day for at least three visits, or when measurements are made after 11:00 A.M., effects of diurnal variation in pulmonary function on estimated average longitudinal decline are minimal