U.S. monetary policy and herding: Evidence from commodity markets

This paper investigates the presence of herding behavior across a spectrum of commodities (i.e., agricultural, energy, precious metals, and metals) futures prices obtained from Datastream. The main novelty of this study is, for the first time in the literature, the explicit investigation of the role of deviations of U.S. monetary policy decisions from a standard Taylor-type monetary rule, in driving herding behavior with respect to commodity futures prices, spanning the period 1990-2017. The results document that the commodity markets are characterized by herding, while such herding behavior is not only driven by U.S. monetary policy decisions, but also such decisions exert asymmetric effects this behavior. An additional novelty of the results is that they document that herding is stronger in discretionary monetary policy regimes.N/

Test of a quadratic relationship between the yield of TIPS and the federal funds rate

This article examines the potential impacts of monetary policy on the yield of Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). A quadratic relationship is confirmed for all four types of TIPS. It suggests that Fed easing would not lower TIPS yields when the federal funds rate is below certain critical values whereas Fed tightening would raise TIPS yields when the federal funds rate is greater than certain critical values.

Policy uncertainty, symbiosis, and the optimal fiscal and monetary conservativeness

Monetary-fiscal policy interactions, Nash equilibrium uncertainty, Symbiosis, E61, E63,

Asymmetric monetary policy effects in EMU

This paper develops a semi-structural modelling approach to study asymmetric monetary transmission in Europe. A system of dynamic equations containing reaction functions for monetary policy as well as output gap and inflation equations is simultaneously estimated for France, Germany and Italy. We find asymmetries on the demand side in the strength of interest rate transmission and on the supply side in the effects of the output gap on inflation. The responses are similar in Germany and Italy and generally stronger than in France. Out-of-sample tests do not find a structural break in the transmission mechanisms prior to the establishment of the European Monetary Union.

Changing effects of monetary policy in the US-evidence from a time-varying coefficient VAR

We estimate a time-varying coefficient VAR model for the US economy to analyse (i) if the effect of monetary policy on output has been changing systematically over time, and (ii) if monetary policy has asymmetric effects over the business cycle. We find that the impact of monetary policy shocks has been gradually declining over the sample period (1962 to 2002), as some theories of the monetary transmission mechanism imply. In addition, our results indicate that the effects of monetary policy are greater in a recession than in a boom.