The developmental dynamics of terrorist organizations

We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a simulation model of organizational dynamics, we show that the production of violent events tends to accelerate with increasing size and experience. This coupling of frequency, experience and size arises from a fundamental positive feedback loop in which attacks lead to growth which leads to increased production of new attacks. In contrast, event severity is independent of both size and experience. Thus larger, more experienced organizations are more deadly because they attack more frequently, not because their attacks are more deadly, and large events are equally likely to come from large and small organizations. These results hold across political ideologies and time, suggesting that the frequency and severity of terrorism may be constrained by fundamental processes.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, supplementary materia

Characterisation of PduS, the pdu Metabolosome Corrin Reductase, and Evidence of Substructural Organisation within the Bacterial Microcompartment

PduS is a corrin reductase and is required for the reactivation of the cobalamin-dependent diol dehydratase. It is one component encoded within the large propanediol utilisation (pdu) operon, which is responsible for the catabolism of 1,2-propanediol within a self-assembled proteinaceous bacterial microcompartment. The enzyme is responsible for the reactivation of the cobalamin coenzyme required by the diol dehydratase. The gene for the cobalamin reductase from Citrobacter freundii (pduS) has been cloned to allow the protein to be overproduced recombinantly in E. coli with an N-terminal His-tag. Purified recombinant PduS is shown to be a flavoprotein with a non-covalently bound FMN that also contains two coupled [4Fe-4S] centres. It is an NADH-dependent flavin reductase that is able to mediate the one-electron reductions of cob(III)alamin to cob(II)alamin and cob(II)alamin to cob(I)alamin. The [4Fe-4S] centres are labile to oxygen and their presence affects the midpoint redox potential of flavin. Evidence is presented that PduS is able to bind cobalamin, which is inconsistent with the view that PduS is merely a flavin reductase. PduS is also shown to interact with one of the shell proteins of the metabolosome, PduT, which is also thought to contain an [Fe-S] cluster. PduS is shown to act as a corrin reductase and its interaction with a shell protein could allow for electron passage out of the bacterial microcompartment

Aviation turbulence: dynamics, forecasting, and response to climate change

Atmospheric turbulence is a major hazard in the aviation industry and can cause injuries to passengers and crew. Understanding the physical and dynamical generation mechanisms of turbulence aids with the development of new forecasting algorithms and, therefore, reduces the impact that it has on the aviation industry. The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviation-affecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed—ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry—to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future

Intergenerational educational mobility is associated with cardiovascular disease risk behaviours in a cohort of young Australian adults: The Childhood Determinants of Adult Health (CDAH) Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although educational disparity has been linked to single risk behaviours, it has not previously been studied as a predictor of overall lifestyle. We examined if current education, parental education or educational mobility between generations was associated with healthy lifestyles in young Australian adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2004-06, participant and parental education (high [bachelor degree or higher], intermediate [vocational training], low [secondary school only]) were assessed. Educational mobility was defined as: stable high (participant and parent in high group), stable intermediate (participant and parent in intermediate group), stable low (participant and parent in low group), downwardly (lower group than parent) and upwardly (higher group than parent) mobile. We derived a lifestyle score from 10 healthy behaviours (BMI, non-smoking, alcohol consumption, leisure time physical activity and six components of diet). Scores >4 indicated a high healthy lifestyle score. We estimated the likelihood of having a high healthy lifestyle score by education (participant and parent) and educational mobility.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Complete data were available for 1973 participants (53% female, age range 26 to 36 years). Those with lower education were less likely to have healthy lifestyles. Parental education was not associated with having a high healthy lifestyle score after adjustment for participant's education. Those who moved upward or downward were as likely to have a high healthy lifestyle score as those in the group they attained.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found clear disparities in health behaviour by participant education and intergenerational educational mobility. People attaining a higher level of education than their parents appeared protected from developing an unhealthy lifestyle suggesting that population-wide improvements in education may be important for health.</p

Diet rapidly and reproducibly alters the human gut microbiome

Long-term diet influences the structure and activity of the trillions of microorganisms residing in the human gut1–5, but it remains unclear how rapidly and reproducibly the human gut microbiome responds to short-term macronutrient change. Here, we show that the short-term consumption of diets composed entirely of animal or plant products alters microbial community structure and overwhelms inter-individual differences in microbial gene expression. The animal-based diet increased the abundance of bile-tolerant microorganisms (Alistipes, Bilophila, and Bacteroides) and decreased the levels of Firmicutes that metabolize dietary plant polysaccharides (Roseburia, Eubacterium rectale, and Ruminococcus bromii). Microbial activity mirrored differences between herbivorous and carnivorous mammals2, reflecting trade-offs between carbohydrate and protein fermentation. Foodborne microbes from both diets transiently colonized the gut, including bacteria, fungi, and even viruses. Finally, increases in the abundance and activity of Bilophila wadsworthia on the animal-based diet support a link between dietary fat, bile acids, and the outgrowth of microorganisms capable of triggering inflammatory bowel disease6. In concert, these results demonstrate that the gut microbiome can rapidly respond to altered diet, potentially facilitating the diversity of human dietary lifestyles

Tracking Cats: Problems with Placing Feline Carnivores on δ18O, δD Isoscapes

Several felids are endangered and threatened by the illegal wildlife trade. Establishing geographic origin of tissues of endangered species is thus crucial for wildlife crime investigations and effective conservation strategies. As shown in other species, stable isotope analysis of hydrogen and oxygen in hair (δD(h), δ(18)O(h)) can be used as a tool for provenance determination. However, reliably predicting the spatial distribution of δD(h) and δ(18)O(h) requires confirmation from animal tissues of known origin and a detailed understanding of the isotopic routing of dietary nutrients into felid hair.We used coupled δD(h) and δ(18)O(h) measurements from the North American bobcat (Lynx rufus) and puma (Puma concolor) with precipitation-based assignment isoscapes to test the feasibility of isotopic geo-location of felidae. Hairs of felid and rabbit museum specimens from 75 sites across the United States and Canada were analyzed. Bobcat and puma lacked a significant correlation between H/O isotopes in hair and local waters, and also exhibited an isotopic decoupling of δ(18)O(h) and δD(h). Conversely, strong δD and δ(18)O coupling was found for key prey, eastern cottontail rabbit (Sylvilagus floridanus; hair) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; collagen, bone phosphate).Puma and bobcat hairs do not adhere to expected pattern of H and O isotopic variation predicted by precipitation isoscapes for North America. Thus, using bulk hair, felids cannot be placed on δ(18)O and δD isoscapes for use in forensic investigations. The effective application of isotopes to trace the provenance of feline carnivores is likely compromised by major controls of their diet, physiology and metabolism on hair δ(18)O and δD related to body water budgets. Controlled feeding experiments, combined with single amino acid isotope analysis of diets and hair, are needed to reveal mechanisms and physiological traits explaining why felid hair does not follow isotopic patterns demonstrated in many other taxa

The genetic epidemiology of joint shape and the development of osteoarthritis

Congruent, low-friction relative movement between the articulating elements of a synovial joint is an essential pre-requisite for sustained, efficient, function. Where disorders of joint formation or maintenance exist, mechanical overloading and osteoarthritis (OA) follow. The heritable component of OA accounts for ~ 50% of susceptible risk. Although almost 100 genetic risk loci for OA have now been identified, and the epidemiological relationship between joint development, joint shape and osteoarthritis is well established, we still have only a limited understanding of the contribution that genetic variation makes to joint shape and how this modulates OA risk. In this article, a brief overview of synovial joint development and its genetic regulation is followed by a review of current knowledge on the genetic epidemiology of established joint shape disorders and common shape variation. A summary of current genetic epidemiology of OA is also given, together with current evidence on the genetic overlap between shape variation and OA. Finally, the established genetic risk loci for both joint shape and osteoarthritis are discussed

Pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes

Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale(1-3). Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4-5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter(4); identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation(5,6); analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution(7); describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity(8,9); and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes(8,10-18).Peer reviewe