HOW FAR CAN WE FORECAST? FORECAST CONTENT HORIZONS FOR SOME IMPORTANT MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES

For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally-accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables. In this paper we estimate such content horizons for a variety of economic variables, and compare these with the maximum horizons which we observe reported in a large sample of empirical economic forecasting studies. We find that there are many instances of published studies which provide forecasts exceeding, often by substantial margins, our estimates of the content horizon for the particular variable and frequency. We suggest some simple reporting practices for forecasts that could potentially bring greater transparency to the process of making the interpreting economic forecasts.

Using Single Molecule Imaging to Explore Intracellular Heterogeneity

Despite more than 100 years of study, it is unclear if the movement of proteins inside the cell is best described as a mosh pit or an exquisitely choreographed dance. Recent studies suggest the latter. Local interactions induce molecular condensates such as liquid-liquid phase separations (LLPSs) or non-liquid, functionally significant molecular aggregates, including synaptic densities, nucleoli, and Amyloid fibrils. Molecular condensates trigger intracellular signaling and drive processes ranging from gene expression to cell division. However, the descriptions of condensates tend to be qualitative and correlative. Here, we indicate how single-molecule imaging and analyses can be applied to quantify condensates. We discuss the pros and cons of different techniques for measuring differences between transient molecular behaviors inside and outside condensates. Finally, we offer suggestions for how imaging and analyses from different time and space regimes can be combined to identify molecular behaviors indicative of condensates within the dynamic high-density intracellular environment.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figures, 1 tabl

Robust radiocarbon dating of wood samples by high-sensitivity liquid scintillation spectroscopy in the 50–70 kyr age range

Although high-sensitivity liquid scintillation (LS) spectroscopy is theoretically capable of producing finite radiocarbon ages in the 50,000- to 70,000-yr range, there is little evidence in the literature that meaningful dates in this time period have been obtained. The pressing need to undertake calibration beyond 26 kyr has resulted in the regular publication of ¹⁴C results in excess of 50 kyr, yet very little effort has been made to demonstrate their accuracy or precision. There is a paucity of systematic studies of the techniques required to produce reliable dates close to background and the methods needed to assess contamination from either in situ sources or laboratory handling and processing. We have studied the requirements for producing accurate and reliable dates beyond 50 kyr. Laboratory procedures include optimization of LS spectrometers to obtain low and stable non-¹⁴C background count rates, use of low-background counting vials, large benzene volumes, long counting times, and preconditioning of vacuum lines. We also discuss the need for multiple analyses of a suitable material containing no original ¹⁴C (background blank) and the application of an appropriate statistical model to compensate for variability in background contamination beyond counting statistics. Accurate and reproducible finite ages >60 kyr are indeed possible by high-sensitivity LS spectroscopy, but require corroborating background blank data to be defensible

Measuring energy spectra of TeV gamma-ray emission from the Cygnus region of our galaxy with Milagro

High energy gamma rays can provide fundamental clues to the origins of cosmic rays. In this thesis, TeV gamma-ray emission from the Cygnus region is studied. Previously the Milagro experiment detected five TeV gamma-ray sources in this region and a significant excess of TeV gamma rays whose origin is still unclear. To better understand the diffuse excess the separation of sources and diffuse emission is studied using the latest and most sensitive data set of the Milagro experiment. In addition, a newly developed technique is applied that allows the energy spectrum of the TeV gamma rays to be reconstructed using Milagro data. No conclusive statement can be made about the spectrum of the diffuse emission from the Cygnus region because of its low significance of 2.2 σ above the background in the studied data sample. The entire Cygnus region emission is best fit with a power law with a spectral index of α=2.40 (68% confidence interval: 1.35-2.92) and a exponential cutoff energy of 31.6 TeV (10.0-251.2 TeV). In the case of a simple power law assumption without a cutoff energy the best fit yields a spectral index of α=2.97 (68% confidence interval: 2.83-3.10). Neither of these best fits are in good agreement with the data. The best spectral fit to the TeV emission from MGRO J2019+37, the brightest source in the Cygnus region, yields a spectral index of α=2.30 (68% confidence interval: 1.40-2.70) with a cutoff energy of 50.1 TeV (68% confidence interval: 17.8-251.2 TeV) and a spectral index of α=2.75 (68% confidence interval: 2.65-2.85) when no exponential cutoff energy is assumed. According to the present analysis, MGRO J2019+37 contributes 25% to the differential flux from the entire Cygnus at 15 TeV

Efficient algorithms for pairing-based cryptosystems

We describe fast new algorithms to implement recent cryptosystems based on the Tate pairing. In particular, our techniques improve pairing evaluation speed by a factor of about 55 compared to previously known methods in characteristic 3, and attain performance comparable to that of RSA in larger characteristics.We also propose faster algorithms for scalar multiplication in characteristic 3 and square root extraction over Fpm, the latter technique being also useful in contexts other than that of pairing-based cryptography

Miniature mobile sensor platforms for condition monitoring of structures

In this paper, a wireless, multisensor inspection system for nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of materials is described. The sensor configuration enables two inspection modes-magnetic (flux leakage and eddy current) and noncontact ultrasound. Each is designed to function in a complementary manner, maximizing the potential for detection of both surface and internal defects. Particular emphasis is placed on the generic architecture of a novel, intelligent sensor platform, and its positioning on the structure under test. The sensor units are capable of wireless communication with a remote host computer, which controls manipulation and data interpretation. Results are presented in the form of automatic scans with different NDE sensors in a series of experiments on thin plate structures. To highlight the advantage of utilizing multiple inspection modalities, data fusion approaches are employed to combine data collected by complementary sensor systems. Fusion of data is shown to demonstrate the potential for improved inspection reliability

Tuning biexciton binding and anti-binding in core/shell quantum dots

We use a path integral quantum Monte Carlo method to simulate excitons and biexcitons in core shell nanocrystals with Type-I, II and quasi-Type II band alignments. Quantum Monte Carlo techniques allow for all quantum correlations to be included when determining the thermal ground state, thus producing accurate predictions of biexciton binding. These subtle quantum correlations are found to cause the biexciton to be binding with Type-I carrier localization and strongly anti-binding with Type-II carrier localization, in agreement with experiment for both core shell nanocrystals and dot in rod nanocrystal structures. Simple treatments based on perturbative approaches are shown to miss this important transition in the biexciton binding. Understanding these correlations offers prospects to engineer strong biexciton anti-binding which is crucial to the design of nanocrystals for single exciton lasing applications.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figure

Towards a radiocarbon calibration for oxygen isotope stage 3 using New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis)

It is well known that radiocarbon years do not directly equate to calendar time. As a result, considerable effort has been devoted to generating a decadally resolved calibration curve for the Holocene and latter part of the last termination. A calibration curve that can be unambiguously attributed to changes in atmospheric ¹⁴C content has not, however, been generated beyond 26 kyr cal BP, despite the urgent need to rigorously test climatic, environmental, and archaeological models. Here, we discuss the potential of New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to define the structure of the ¹⁴C calibration curve using annually resolved tree rings and thereby provide an absolute measure of atmospheric ¹⁴C. We report bidecadally sampled ¹⁴C measurements obtained from a floating 1050-yr chronology, demonstrating repeatable ¹⁴C measurements near the present limits of the dating method. The results indicate that considerable scope exists for a high-resolution ¹⁴C calibration curve back through OIS-3 using subfossil wood from this source

The Effects of Olympic Weightlifting Derivatives on Muay Thai Roundhouse Kicking Performance

The purpose of this study was to identify performance measures in roundhouse striking, by the implementation of Olympic Weightlifting Derivatives (OWLD) with Muay Thai fighters. Forty male subjects were recruited, with twenty male subjects placed in the experimental group (EG)and twenty male subjects in the control group (CG) and were randomly assigned to their groups. Mean 26 years 3 (± 3.2), weight and height 82.4 kg (± 12.2), and 180.7cm (± 3). Pre- and post-intervention and control group testing included roundhouse strike impact power, measured using the PowerKubeTM, a dynamometer that identifies the impact power used to produce striking potential. Countermovement jumps were recorded using a single PASCO force platform one axis PS2141. The EG subjects were prescribed an eight-week training programme that was carried out prior to their sparring with twenty minutes rest to recover. The control group were instructed to carry out traditional training that involved the same volume of sparring, cardiovascular fitness, and circuit training as the EG. Within-group post test results showed the EG and CG group demonstrated significantly different results in RHK performance (p ≤ 0.01); however, no significant differences were observed between groups. Results in the countermovement jump were, however, highly significant (p ≤ 0.01) in the EG (within group), but not significant in the CG (p ≥ 0.05); again, no significant differences were observed between groups. Meaningful differences were seen in the EG with a 7.41% increase in roundhouse kicking performance and 7.54% in countermovement jump height, compared to the CG that elicited negligible differences of only 1.56% in the roundhouse kicking performance and 0.33% in countermovement jumper, demonstrating OWLD would improve the performance of the Muay Thai fighter