Ethnobotanical Survey of Some Medicinal Plants for Curing Pile or Hemorrhoids in Ago-Owu Forest Reserve,OsunState Nigeria

Ethnobotanical Survey of some medicinal plants for curing pile or aemorrhoids was conducted in selected villages around Ago-Owu foresty reserved, Osun State Nigeria. A reconnaissance survey was done. Five villages were randomly selected, namely; Arinkinkin, Okodowo, Alaadura, Agbaogun and Alaguntan. Questionnaire copies were administered to a group of people namely; hunters, farmers, herbalists, civil servants and other professionals in each village. The total number of respondents in Arinkinkin, Okodowo ,Alaadura,Agbaogun and Alaguntan were 30,15,23,20 and 22 respectively. The result showed 20 medicinal plants for curing the ailments. Ten medicinal plants identified by the respondents were randomly collected and chemically screened for their chemical constituents including alkaloids, tannins, saponins, flavonoids and polyphenols. The medicinal plants investigated were Ficusexasperata, Agerantumconyzoidea, Paullina pinnata, Mormordricacharantia, Sennaalata, Newbouldialaevis, Phyllantusamarus, Sphenocentrumjollyanum, cassampelosowariensisandOcimumgratissimum. All the plants contain percentage yield of alkaloids (ranging from 0.0075% to 0.02%), tannins (0.02% to 0.44%), saponins(0.001% to 0.002%), flavonoids (0.02% to 0.57%) and polyphenols (0.11% to 1.85%). The nutritional values of the phytochemicals were also assessed. It revealed that the plants contained crude protein (14.57% to 29.37%), moisture content (14.40% to 58.09%), crude fibre (4.54% to 29.05%), ash (6.65% to 22.08%) and carbohydrate (2.04% to 43.60%). It showed that they are highly nutritious, anti- viral, anti- microbial, anti- bacterial, anti - parasitic, anti -inflammatory, expectorate  and immune against diseases. Keywords: Ethnobotanical, pile, hemorrhoid, ailments, medicinal plants, phytochemical

Data Driven Mathematical Models for Forecast of Covid-19 Disease in Nigeria

In this research, two mathematical models are proposed for investigation of laboratory confirmed daily COVID-19 disease incidence and total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.  Due  to the observed patterns in the raw data, Autoregressive  Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) method  is used on the data which covered  a period of 521 days (27  February, 2020-  1st  August 2021).  While diagnostic check of ARIMA(11,1,0)  indicate Ljung-Box Q(18) statistics value of 12.544  with p-value  of 0.084,  diagnostic check of ARIMA(1, 1, 1)  indicate Ljung Box Q(18) statistics value of 22.420 with p-value of 0.130.  Furthermore, stationary R- squared values are 0.803 and 0.858 at 95% confidence bound for ARIMA (11, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) respectively which are indicative of good models.  Results from ARIMA (11, 1, 0) forecast show a slightly moderate upward trend in confirmed  daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria and results from ARIMA(1, 1, 1) indicate significant upward trend in total active daily infectious COVID-19  cases in Nigerian population.  Therefore, the developed models can be adopted by presidential taskforce and other agencies in health sector regarding future vaccination towards prevention of the spread of COVID-19 disease in Nigeria provided that the present general prevailing conditions of disease spread remain fairly the same

Data Driven Mathematical Models for Forecast of Covid-19 Disease in Nigeria

In this research, two mathematical models are proposed for investigation of laboratory confirmed daily COVID-19 disease incidence and total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.  Due  to the observed patterns in the raw data, Autoregressive  Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) method  is used on the data which covered  a period of 521 days (27  February, 2020-  1st  August 2021).  While diagnostic check of ARIMA(11,1,0)  indicate Ljung-Box Q(18) statistics value of 12.544  with p-value  of 0.084,  diagnostic check of ARIMA(1, 1, 1)  indicate Ljung Box Q(18) statistics value of 22.420 with p-value of 0.130.  Furthermore, stationary R- squared values are 0.803 and 0.858 at 95% confidence bound for ARIMA (11, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) respectively which are indicative of good models.  Results from ARIMA (11, 1, 0) forecast show a slightly moderate upward trend in confirmed  daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria and results from ARIMA(1, 1, 1) indicate significant upward trend in total active daily infectious COVID-19  cases in Nigerian population.  Therefore, the developed models can be adopted by presidential taskforce and other agencies in health sector regarding future vaccination towards prevention of the spread of COVID-19 disease in Nigeria provided that the present general prevailing conditions of disease spread remain fairly the same