A hybrid ARIMA and artificial neural networks model to forecast particulate matter in urban areas: The case of Temuco, Chile

Air quality time series consists of complex linear and non-linear patterns and are difficult to forecast. Box-Jenkins Time Series (ARIMA) and multilinear regression (MLR) models have been applied to air quality forecasting in urban areas, but they have limited accuracy owing to their inability to predict extreme events. Artificial neural networks (ANN) can recognize non-linear patterns that include extremes. A novel hybrid model combining ARIMA and ANN to improve forecast accuracy for an area with limited air quality and meteorological data was applied to Temuco, Chile, where residential wood burning is a major pollution source during cold winters, using surface meteorological and PM10 measurements. Experimental results indicated that the hybrid model can be an effective tool to improve the PM10 forecasting accuracy obtained by either of the models used separately, and compared with a deterministic MLR. The hybrid model was able to capture 100% and 80% of alert and pre-emergency episodes, respectively. This approach demonstrates the potential to be applied to air quality forecasting in other cities and countries

Search for R-Parity Violating Decays of Scalar Fermions at LEP

A search for pair-produced scalar fermions under the assumption that R-parity is not conserved has been performed using data collected with the OPAL detector at LEP. The data samples analysed correspond to an integrated luminosity of about 610 pb-1 collected at centre-of-mass energies of sqrt(s) 189-209 GeV. An important consequence of R-parity violation is that the lightest supersymmetric particle is expected to be unstable. Searches of R-parity violating decays of charged sleptons, sneutrinos and squarks have been performed under the assumptions that the lightest supersymmetric particle decays promptly and that only one of the R-parity violating couplings is dominant for each of the decay modes considered. Such processes would yield final states consisting of leptons, jets, or both with or without missing energy. No significant single-like excess of events has been observed with respect to the Standard Model expectations. Limits on the production cross- section of scalar fermions in R-parity violating scenarios are obtained. Constraints on the supersymmetric particle masses are also presented in an R-parity violating framework analogous to the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model.Comment: 51 pages, 24 figures, Submitted to Eur. Phys. J.

Search for Higgs Bosons in e+e- Collisions at 183 GeV

The data collected by the OPAL experiment at sqrts=183 GeV were used to search for Higgs bosons which are predicted by the Standard Model and various extensions, such as general models with two Higgs field doublets and the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of approximately 54pb-1. None of the searches for neutral and charged Higgs bosons have revealed an excess of events beyond the expected background. This negative outcome, in combination with similar results from searches at lower energies, leads to new limits for the Higgs boson masses and other model parameters. In particular, the 95% confidence level lower limit for the mass of the Standard Model Higgs boson is 88.3 GeV. Charged Higgs bosons can be excluded for masses up to 59.5 GeV. In the MSSM, mh > 70.5 GeV and mA > 72.0 GeV are obtained for tan{beta}>1, no and maximal scalar top mixing and soft SUSY-breaking masses of 1 TeV. The range 0.8 < tanb < 1.9 is excluded for minimal scalar top mixing and m{top} < 175 GeV. More general scans of the MSSM parameter space are also considered.Comment: 49 pages. LaTeX, including 33 eps figures, submitted to European Physical Journal

A Measurement of the Product Branching Ratio f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) in Z0 Decays

The product branching ratio, f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X), where Lambda_b denotes any weakly-decaying b-baryon, has been measured using the OPAL detector at LEP. Lambda_b are selected by the presence of energetic Lambda particles in bottom events tagged by the presence of displaced secondary vertices. A fit to the momenta of the Lambda particles separates signal from B meson and fragmentation backgrounds. The measured product branching ratio is f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) = (2.67+-0.38(stat)+0.67-0.60(sys))% Combined with a previous OPAL measurement, one obtains f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) = (3.50+-0.32(stat)+-0.35(sys))%.Comment: 16 pages, LaTeX, 3 eps figs included, submitted to the European Physical Journal

A measurement of the tau mass and the first CPT test with tau leptons

We measure the mass of the tau lepton to be 1775.1+-1.6(stat)+-1.0(syst.) MeV using tau pairs from Z0 decays. To test CPT invariance we compare the masses of the positively and negatively charged tau leptons. The relative mass difference is found to be smaller than 3.0 10^-3 at the 90% confidence level.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, Submitted to Phys. Letts.

Measurement of the Hadronic Photon Structure Function F_2^gamma at LEP2

The hadronic structure function of the photon F_2^gamma is measured as a function of Bjorken x and of the factorisation scale Q^2 using data taken by the OPAL detector at LEP. Previous OPAL measurements of the x dependence of F_2^gamma are extended to an average Q^2 of 767 GeV^2. The Q^2 evolution of F_2^gamma is studied for average Q^2 between 11.9 and 1051 GeV^2. As predicted by QCD, the data show positive scaling violations in F_2^gamma. Several parameterisations of F_2^gamma are in agreement with the measurements whereas the quark-parton model prediction fails to describe the data.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, to appear in the proceedings of Photon 2001, Ascona, Switzerlan

First Measurement of Z/gamma* Production in Compton Scattering of Quasi-real Photons

We report the first observation of Z/gamma* production in Compton scattering of quasi-real photons. This is a subprocess of the reaction e+e- to e+e-Z/gamma*, where one of the final state electrons is undetected. Approximately 55 pb-1 of data collected in the year 1997 at an e+e- centre-of-mass energy of 183 GeV with the OPAL detector at LEP have been analysed. The Z/gamma* from Compton scattering has been detected in the hadronic decay channel. Within well defined kinematic bounds, we measure the product of cross-section and Z/gamma* branching ratio to hadrons to be (0.9+-0.3+-0.1) pb for events with a hadronic mass larger than 60 GeV, dominated by (e)eZ production. In the hadronic mass region between 5 GeV and 60 GeV, dominated by (e)egamma* production, this product is found to be (4.1+-1.6+-0.6) pb. Our results agree with the predictions of two Monte Carlo event generators, grc4f and PYTHIA.Comment: 18 pages, LaTeX, 5 eps figures included, submitted to Physics Letters

Measurement of the B0 Lifetime and Oscillation Frequency using B0->D*+l-v decays

The lifetime and oscillation frequency of the B0 meson has been measured using B0->D*+l-v decays recorded on the Z0 peak with the OPAL detector at LEP. The D*+ -> D0pi+ decays were reconstructed using an inclusive technique and the production flavour of the B0 mesons was determined using a combination of tags from the rest of the event. The results t_B0 = 1.541 +- 0.028 +- 0.023 ps, Dm_d = 0.497 +- 0.024 +- 0.025 ps-1 were obtained, where in each case the first error is statistical and the second systematic.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Phys. Lett.

Measurement of the Michel Parameters in Leptonic Tau Decays

The Michel parameters of the leptonic tau decays are measured using the OPAL detector at LEP. The Michel parameters are extracted from the energy spectra of the charged decay leptons and from their energy-energy correlations. A new method involving a global likelihood fit of Monte Carlo generated events with complete detector simulation and background treatment has been applied to the data recorded at center-of-mass energies close to sqrt(s) = M(Z) corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 155 pb-1 during the years 1990 to 1995. If e-mu universality is assumed and inferring the tau polarization from neutral current data, the measured Michel parameters are extracted. Limits on non-standard coupling constants and on the masses of new gauge bosons are obtained. The results are in agreement with the V-A prediction of the Standard Model.Comment: 32 pages, LaTeX, 9 eps figures included, submitted to the European Physical Journal

Measurement of the partial widths of the Z into up- and down-type quarks

Using the entire OPAL LEP1 on-peak Z hadronic decay sample, Z -> qbarq gamma decays were selected by tagging hadronic final states with isolated photon candidates in the electromagnetic calorimeter. Combining the measured rates of Z -> qbarq gamma decays with the total rate of hadronic Z decays permits the simultaneous determination of the widths of the Z into up- and down-type quarks. The values obtained, with total errors, were Gamma u = 300 ^{+19}_{-18} MeV and Gamma d = 381 ^{+12}_{-12} MeV. The results are in good agreement with the Standard Model expectation.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, Submitted to Phys. Letts.