Анализ гистерезиса безработицы методом тестирования единичных корней в панельных данных для стран ОЭСР

Во многих странах гистерезис является основным фактором безработицы. Согласно гипотезе гистерезиса, в отсутствие должных политических мер сохранение высокого уровня безработицы в долгосрочной перспективе угрожает экономическому развитию государства. В данной статье проверяется наличие единичного корня для безработицы в 10 избранных странах Организации экономического сотрудничества и развития (Бельгия, Канада, чехия, Эстония, Франция, Япония, Нидерланды, Испания, Великобритания и США). цель исследования - определить, присутствует ли в этих странах эффект гистерезиса. Для анализа данных использован предложенный Песараном, Смитом и Ямагатой метод тестирования единичных корней в панельных данных, измеряющий кросс-зависимость факторов. Используя информацию о достаточном количестве дополнительных объясняющих переменных, тест анализирует, действителен ли единичный корень. Дополнительные переменные должны иметь общий множитель с переменной, стационарность которой проверяется, поскольку общий фактор является причиной кросс-зависимости. В качестве факторов, вызывающих кросс-зависимость и влияющих на гистерезис безработицы, рассмотрены такие показатели, как налоговый клин, плотность профсоюзов и минимальная заработная плата. В случае ошибки в многофакторной структуре процедура тестирования завершается с использованием информации, содержащейся в трех дополнительных переменных. Проанализировано как присутствие гистерезиса безработицы, так и влияющие на безработицу факторы. Отсутствие данных не позволило оценить ситуацию во все странах ОЭСР в различные временные периоды. Из полученных данных следует, что эффект гистерезиса присутствует во всех 10 избранных странах ОЭСР.Hysteresis is a dominant feature of unemployment in numerous countries. According to the hysteresis hypothesis, it is a well-known fact that high unemployment may persist and remain an economic threat in the long run if policy measures are not taken. In this study, it is tested whether the unemployment rates for 10 selected countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, Britain and the USA) contain unit root or not, in other words, whether the hysteresis effect is valid for these countries. For this purpose, this study utilises the concept of the multi-factor panel unit root test proposed by Pesaran, Smith and Yamagata. This method measures cross-section dependence through factors. The test analyses whether the unit root is valid or not, using information about a sufficient number of additional explanatory variables. The characteristic of these additional variables is that they must share a common factor with the variable whose stationarity is tested. It is accepted that this common factor causes cross-sectional dependence. We have taken tax wedge, trade union density and minimum wage as factors that cause cross-sectional dependency and affect unemployment hysteresis. In this test developed by the authors, in the case of a multi-factor error structure, the test procedure is completed by using the information contained in 3 additional variables. The study explores not only the validity of unemployment hysteresis but also the factors that affect the rigidity of the unemployment rate. However, the research was unable to encompass the entire OECD countries and all times because of the lack of data. The results showed that the hysteresis is valid for 10 selected OECD countries

The State of the Art in Language Workbenches. Conclusions from the Language Workbench Challenge

Language workbenches are tools that provide high-level mechanisms for the implementation of (domain-specific) languages. Language workbenches are an active area of research that also receives many contributions from industry. To compare and discuss existing language workbenches, the annual Language Workbench Challenge was launched in 2011. Each year, participants are challenged to realize a given domain-specific language with their workbenches as a basis for discussion and comparison. In this paper, we describe the state of the art of language workbenches as observed in the previous editions of the Language Workbench Challenge. In particular, we capture the design space of language workbenches in a feature model and show where in this design space the participants of the 2013 Language Workbench Challenge reside. We compare these workbenches based on a DSL for questionnaires that was realized in all workbenches

Association between essential tremor and blood lead concentration

Lead is a ubiquitous toxicant that causes tremor and cerebellar damage. Essential tremor (ET) is a highly prevalent neurologic disease associated with cerebellar involvement. Although environmental toxicants may play a role in ET etiology and their identification is a critical step in disease prevention, these toxicants have received little attention. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that ET is associated with lead exposure. Therefore, blood lead (BPb) concentrations were measured and a lifetime occupational history was assessed in ET patients and in controls. We frequency matched 100 ET patients and 143 controls on age, sex, and ethnicity. BPb concentrations were analyzed using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry. A lifetime occupational history was reviewed by an industrial hygienist. BPb concentrations were higher in ET patients than in controls (mean ± SD, 3.3 ± 2.4 and 2.6 ± 1.6 µg/dL, respectively; median, 2.7 and 2.3 µg/dL; p = 0.038). In a logistic regression model, BPb concentration was associated with diagnosis [control vs. ET patient, odds ratio (OR) per unit increase = 1.21; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-1.39; p = 0.007]. BPb concentration was associated with diagnosis (OR per unit increase = 1.19; 95% CI, 1.03-1.37; p = 0.02) after adjusting for potential confounders. Prevalence of lifetime occupational lead exposure was similar in ET patients and controls. We report an association between BPb concentration and ET. Determining whether this association is due to increased exposure to lead or a difference in lead kinetics in ET patients requires further investigation

Fluoxetine reverses the memory impairment and reduction in proliferation and survival of hippocampal cells caused by methotrexate chemotherapy

RATIONALE: Adjuvant cancer chemotherapy can cause long-lasting, cognitive deficits. It is postulated that these impairments are due to these drugs targeting neural precursors within the adult hippocampus, the loss of which has been associated with memory impairment. OBJECTIVES: The present study investigates the effects of the chemotherapy, methotrexate (MTX) on spatial working memory and the proliferation and survival of the neural precursors involved in hippocampal neurogenesis, and the possible neuroprotective properties of the antidepressant fluoxetine. METHODS: Male Lister hooded rats were administered MTX (75 mg/kg, two i.v. doses a week apart) followed by leucovorin rescue (i.p. 18 h after MTX at 6 mg/kg and at 26, 42 and 50 h at 3 mg/kg) and/or fluoxetine (10 mg/kg/day in drinking water for 40 days). Memory was tested using the novel location recognition (NLR) test. Using markers, cell proliferation (Ki67) and survival (bromodeoxyuridine/BrdU), in the dentate gyrus were quantified. RESULTS: MTX-treated rats showed a cognitive deficit in the NLR task compared with the vehicle and fluoxetine-treated groups. Cognitive ability was restored in the group receiving both MTX and fluoxetine. MTX reduced both the number of proliferating cells in the SGZ and their survival. This was prevented by the co-administration of fluoxetine, which alone increased cell numbers. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that MTX induces an impairment in spatial working memory and has a negative long-term effect on hippocampal neurogenesis, which is counteracted by the co-administration of fluoxetine. If translatable to patients, this finding has the potential to prevent the chemotherapy-induced cognitive deficits experienced by many cancer survivors

Justify your alpha

Benjamin et al. proposed changing the conventional “statistical significance” threshold (i.e.,the alpha level) from p ≤ .05 to p ≤ .005 for all novel claims with relatively low prior odds. They provided two arguments for why lowering the significance threshold would “immediately improve the reproducibility of scientific research.” First, a p-value near .05provides weak evidence for the alternative hypothesis. Second, under certain assumptions, an alpha of .05 leads to high false positive report probabilities (FPRP2 ; the probability that a significant finding is a false positive

Extensive innate immune gene activation accompanies brain aging, increasing vulnerability to cognitive decline and neurodegeneration: a microarray study

BACKGROUND: This study undertakes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of brain gene expression profiles of immune/inflammation-related genes in aging and Alzheimer’s disease (AD). METHODS: In a well-powered microarray study of young (20 to 59 years), aged (60 to 99 years), and AD (74 to 95 years) cases, gene responses were assessed in the hippocampus, entorhinal cortex, superior frontal gyrus, and post-central gyrus. RESULTS: Several novel concepts emerge. First, immune/inflammation-related genes showed major changes in gene expression over the course of cognitively normal aging, with the extent of gene response far greater in aging than in AD. Of the 759 immune-related probesets interrogated on the microarray, approximately 40% were significantly altered in the SFG, PCG and HC with increasing age, with the majority upregulated (64 to 86%). In contrast, far fewer immune/inflammation genes were significantly changed in the transition to AD (approximately 6% of immune-related probesets), with gene responses primarily restricted to the SFG and HC. Second, relatively few significant changes in immune/inflammation genes were detected in the EC either in aging or AD, although many genes in the EC showed similar trends in responses as in the other brain regions. Third, immune/inflammation genes undergo gender-specific patterns of response in aging and AD, with the most pronounced differences emerging in aging. Finally, there was widespread upregulation of genes reflecting activation of microglia and perivascular macrophages in the aging brain, coupled with a downregulation of select factors (TOLLIP, fractalkine) that when present curtail microglial/macrophage activation. Notably, essentially all pathways of the innate immune system were upregulated in aging, including numerous complement components, genes involved in toll-like receptor signaling and inflammasome signaling, as well as genes coding for immunoglobulin (Fc) receptors and human leukocyte antigens I and II. CONCLUSIONS: Unexpectedly, the extent of innate immune gene upregulation in AD was modest relative to the robust response apparent in the aged brain, consistent with the emerging idea of a critical involvement of inflammation in the earliest stages, perhaps even in the preclinical stage, of AD. Ultimately, our data suggest that an important strategy to maintain cognitive health and resilience involves reducing chronic innate immune activation that should be initiated in late midlife

Justify your alpha

In response to recommendations to redefine statistical significance to p ≤ .005, we propose that researchers should transparently report and justify all choices they make when designing a study, including the alpha level

Cerebral Response to Peripheral Challenge with a Viral Mimetic

It has been well established that peripheral inflammation resulting from microbial infections profoundly alters brain function. This review focuses on experimental systems that model cerebral effects of peripheral viral challenge. The most common models employ the induction of the acute phase response (APR) via intraperitoneal injection of a viral mimetic, polyinosinic-polycytidylic acid (PIC). The ensuing transient surge of blood-borne inflammatory mediators induces a “mirror” inflammatory response in the brain characterized by the upregulated expression of a plethora of genes encoding cytokines, chemokines and other inflammatory/stress proteins. These inflammatory mediators modify the activity of neuronal networks leading to a constellation of behavioral traits collectively categorized as the sickness behavior. Sickness behavior is an important protective response of the host that has evolved to enhance survival and limit the spread of infections within a population. However, a growing body of clinical data indicates that the activation of inflammatory pathways in the brain may constitute a serious comorbidity factor for neuropathological conditions. Such comorbidity has been demonstrated using the PIC paradigm in experimental models of Alzheimer\u27s disease, prion disease and seizures. Also, prenatal or perinatal PIC challenge has been shown to disrupt normal cerebral development of the offspring resulting in phenotypes consistent with neuropsychiatric disorders, such as schizophrenia and autism. Remarkably, recent studies indicate that mild peripheral PIC challenge may be neuroprotective in stroke. Altogether, the PIC challenge paradigm represents a unique heuristic model to elucidate the immune-to-brain communication pathways and to explore preventive strategies for neuropathological disorders

PCBs in phytoplankton in the Odra Estuary

Eleven PCB congeners were determined in phytoplankton samples collected from the Odra Estuary at 9 stations in 2001–2002. The PCB concentrations were related to the temperature, turbidity, salinity, oxygen and redox potential of the water as well as to the pigment content in the samples. The results indicate that phytoplankton and the detritus derived from it play a crucial role in the distribution of PCBs, their transfer from the water column to sediments and from the Estuary to the sea. The species composition of the phytoplankton occurring in this area could also be very important as regards the sorption of PCBs