The Fourth Crusade: How Internal Dynamics and Leadership Transitions Could Have Led to its Diversion and Ultimate Failure

The Fourth Crusade, a war called to recapture Jerusalem, ended in disaster for the Christian city of Constantinople and the city of Jerusalem remained untouched by the crusading host. The fact that a war called to protect Christians in the Middle East and to recapture the city of Jerusalem for God resulted in the sacking of one of the largest Christian cities has led to much scholarly investigation into what exactly caused this to transpire. For the better part of a millennium scholars have sought answers to significant questions and have produced a variety of explanations for why the crusade ultimately failed. These theories range from conspiracy to random chance but debate still rages on between scholars about possible answers to these long deliberated questions. This study will relies mainly upon the primary sources of some of the crusaders who were a part of the crusade and some of their contemporaries for evidence to support this claim. Geoffrey de Villehardouin along with some of his contemporaries, such as Robert of Clari, recorded their knowledge and experience of the Fourth Crusade and are the main primary sources used for this study. This study also makes extensive use of secondary literature, such as the work of Thomas Madden and Donald Queller, regarding both the Fourth Crusade itself and the theories that have been conceived to explain both its diversion and ultimate failure. The purpose of this study is to try to provide conceivable answers to these long discussed questions by looking at the crusade using a different technique that combines certain aspects of noted scholars’ analyses with a style of looking at the crusade by dividing it into separate periods of time. By analyzing the Fourth crusade with this method the study aims to provide possible explanations for certain major events by analyzing specific internal dynamics and leadership transitions that this study claims to be responsible, to some degree, for both the diversion and ultimate failure of the Fourth Crusade. The goal of this study is to prove that internal dynamics that include: the changing goals of the leadership, desertions, polarization of the crusading party, and justifying actions as a means to an end, along with leadership transitions are at least partially responsible for both the diversion and ultimate failure of the Fourth Crusade

The early evolution of the H-free process

The H-free process, for some fixed graph H, is the random graph process defined by starting with an empty graph on n vertices and then adding edges one at a time, chosen uniformly at random subject to the constraint that no H subgraph is formed. Let G be the random maximal H-free graph obtained at the end of the process. When H is strictly 2-balanced, we show that for some c>0, with high probability as $n \to \infty$, the minimum degree in G is at least $cn^{1-(v_H-2)/(e_H-1)}(\log n)^{1/(e_H-1)}$. This gives new lower bounds for the Tur\'an numbers of certain bipartite graphs, such as the complete bipartite graphs $K_{r,r}$ with $r \ge 5$. When H is a complete graph $K_s$ with $s \ge 5$ we show that for some C>0, with high probability the independence number of G is at most $Cn^{2/(s+1)}(\log n)^{1-1/(e_H-1)}$. This gives new lower bounds for Ramsey numbers R(s,t) for fixed $s \ge 5$ and t large. We also obtain new bounds for the independence number of G for other graphs H, including the case when H is a cycle. Our proofs use the differential equations method for random graph processes to analyse the evolution of the process, and give further information about the structure of the graphs obtained, including asymptotic formulae for a broad class of subgraph extension variables.Comment: 36 page

Financial risk tolerance of Chinese American families

This chapter investigates the factors that affect financial risk tolerance of Chinese American households. Research on the economic well-being of Chinese American households is extremely limited. Few national datasets differentiate Chinese Americans from other race/ethnicity groups. For this study, a survey of Chinese American households residing in Midwestern states was conducted. The results showed that about 80.5 % of the sample households expressed a willingness to take at least some financial risks. Factors that have an impact on financial risk tolerance of Chinese American households included gender, non-financial assets, income, and investment time horizon. Chinese Americans represents a small but fast-growing population in the USA. More research should be done to better serve the financial needs of this group.Includes bibliographical references

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

A Test of the Association Between the Initial Surge in COVID-19 Cases and Subsequent Changes Infinancial Risk Tolerance

Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to provide an estimate of the degree to which financial risk tolerance changed in relation to the initial surge of COVID-19 cases in the US.Design/methodology/approach–Data from a large sample of investors and other consumers covering theperiod beginning April 2019 and ending in early May 2020 were used to estimate aggregate levels of financialrisk tolerance and to determine if the willingness to take financial risk changed across five distinct periods inrelation to the spread of COVID-19.Findings–A general reduction in aggregate levels of financial risk tolerance was observed during the initial peak of COVID-19 period and the subsequent declaration of a pandemic, with the most significant drop in risk tolerance being exhibited by those who were 25 years of age or younger.Practical implications–The findings from this study–primarily that in terms of FRT, the COVID-19 pandemic impacted young people disproportionately–suggest that in addition to helping young people feelcomfortable in terms of their personal health situation and access to employment and health insurance, policymakers, financial service firms and financial literacy educators should provide information and guidance toyoung people regarding why being willing to take financial risks is important and how FRT corresponds to theproper functioning of the investment markets.Originality/value–A data-drive methodology was utilized in this study to define the periods. This approach was taken due to the lack of defined and published pandemic interval periods specific to COVID19. However,the findings based on the data-driven methodology bring practical implications such as young people aresincerely considered in the catastrophic situation

A Test of the Relevant Association Between Utility Theory and Subjective Risk Tolerance: Introducing the Profit-to-Willingness Ratio

The purpose of this study was to document the empirical linkage between an objective risk tolerance utility function and a subjective risk tolerance scale. This study utilized return data from 2008 through 2013 for the S&P 500 as a proxy for the objective risk tolerance utility function and risk tolerance data obtained from a multidimensional psychometrically designed financial risk tolerance scale. Results from this study add to the literature by introducing the Profit-to-Willingness ratio (P/W ratio) and by showing investments in the stock market exhibit strong associates with the risk attitudes and preferences of investors. It was determined that an increase in the S&P 500 was associated with a decrease in aggregate risk tolerance during the period of analysis, whereas a decrease in the index increased willingness to take financial risk during the same period