The Political Economy of Myanmar's Transition

This is an Author's Original Manuscript of an article whose final and definitive form, the Version of Record, has been published in the JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY ASIA, 07 Feb 2013, copyright Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00472336.2013.764143.Since holding elections in 2010, Myanmar has transitioned from a direct military dictatorship to a formally democratic system and has embarked on a period of rapid economic reform. After two decades of military rule, the pace of change has startled almost everyone and led to a great deal of cautious optimism. To make sense of the transition and assess the case for optimism, this article explores the political economy of Myanmar's dual transition from state socialism to capitalism and from dictatorship to democracy. It analyses changes within Myanmar society from a critical political economy perspective in order to both situate these developments within broader regional trends and to evaluate the country's current trajectory. In particular, the emergence of state-mediated capitalism and politico-business complexes in Myanmar's borderlands are emphasised. These dynamics, which have empowered a narrow oligarchy, are less likely to be undone by the reform process than to fundamentally shape the contours of reform. Consequently, Myanmar's future may not be unlike those of other Southeast Asian states that have experienced similar developmental trajectories

The Longevity of Lava Dome Eruptions

Understanding the duration of past, on-going and future volcanic eruptions is an important scientific goal and a key societal need. We present a new methodology for forecasting the duration of on-going and future lava dome eruptions based on a database (DomeHaz) recently compiled by the authors. The database includes duration and composition for 177 such eruptions, with "eruption" defined as the period encompassing individual episodes of dome growth along with associated quiescent periods during which extrusion pauses but unrest continues. In a key finding we show that probability distributions for dome eruption durations are both heavy-tailed and composition-dependent. We construct Objective Bayes statistical models featuring heavy-tailed Generalized Pareto distributions with composition-specific parameters to make forecasts about the durations of new and on-going eruptions that depend on both eruption duration-to-date and composition. Our Bayesian predictive distributions reflect both uncertainty about model parameter values (epistemic uncertainty) and the natural variability of the geologic processes (aleatoric uncertainty). The results are illustrated by presenting likely trajectories for fourteen dome-building eruptions on-going in 2015. Full representation of the uncertainty is presented for two key eruptions, Soufri{\'{e}}re Hills Volcano in Montserrat (10--139 years, median 35yr) and Sinabung, Indonesia (1--17 years, median 4yr). Uncertainties are high, but, importantly, quantifiable. This work provides for the first time a quantitative and transferable method and rationale on which to base long-term planning decisions for lava dome forming volcanoes, with wide potential use and transferability to forecasts of other types of eruptions and other adverse events across the geohazard spectrum.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

"How do pilates trained physiotherapists utilize and value pilates exercise for MSK conditions? A qualitative study"

Background Pilates is a popular exercise therapy approach offering numerous benefits, including muscular strength, flexibility, control, and core stability. Pilates has been widely utilized in the prevention and rehabilitation of a variety of musculoskeletal disorders. Objectives The aim of this study was to explore the experiences and opinions of Pilates trained NHS and private practice physiotherapists in the UK, regarding the perceived benefits, risks, delivery and rationale for this exercise method. Methods This qualitative study used a self‐designed electronic survey to retrieve the views of 30 physiotherapists, who had undertaken formal Pilates Instruction training, recruited by a purposive and snowball sampling method. Questions were either multiple choice or open‐ended, examined via thematic analysis. Results Physiotherapists identified the most important benefits of Pilates as reduction in fear‐avoidance, improving bodily awareness and increasing muscular strength. Exercises that promote general movement were highlighted as being particularly useful, with a majority recommending daily practice for optimum benefit. Participants recognized lack of core strength as a key indicator, whereas others criticized excessive focus on this principle. Conclusions Physiotherapists identified a range of inter‐linked benefits and recognized that Pilates is hugely modifiable. Individualizing exercises can further encourage participation and negate the restriction of some health conditions. NHS and Private Practice Therapists utilize Pilates in a similar way, although rationales for its use may differ, as the justification for Pilates exercise may be evolving. Pilates appears a valuable methodology in the NHS, which can help patients engage with activity

Developing core sets for persons following amputation based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health as a way to specify functioning

Amputation is a common late stage sequel of peripheral vascular disease and diabetes or a sequel of accidental trauma, civil unrest and landmines. The functional impairments affect many facets of life including but not limited to: Mobility; activities of daily living; body image and sexuality. Classification, measurement and comparison of the consequences of amputations has been impeded by the limited availability of internationally, multiculturally standardized instruments in the amputee setting. The introduction of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) by the World Health Assembly in May 2001 provides a globally accepted framework and classification system to describe, assess and compare function and disability. In order to facilitate the use of the ICF in everyday clinical practice and research, ICF core sets have been developed that focus on specific aspects of function typically associated with a particular disability. The objective of this paper is to outline the development process for the ICF core sets for persons following amputation. The ICF core sets are designed to translate the benefits of the ICF into clinical routine. The ICF core sets will be defined at a Consensus conference which will integrate evidence from preparatory studies, namely: (a) a systematic literature review regarding the outcome measures of clinical trails and observational studies, (b) semi-structured patient interviews, (c) international experts participating in an internet-based survey, and (d) cross-sectional, multi-center studies for clinical applicability. To validate the ICF core sets field-testing will follow. Invitation for participation: The development of ICF Core Sets is an inclusive and open process. Anyone who wishes to actively participate in this process is invited to do so

Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models

An objective technique for analysing seasonality, in terms of regime, progression and timing of the wet seasons, is applied in the evaluation of CMIP5 simulations across continental Africa. Atmosphere-only and coupled integrations capture the gross observed patterns of seasonal progression and give mean onset/cessation dates within 18 days of the observational dates for 11 of the 13 regions considered. Accurate representation of seasonality over central-southern Africa and West Africa (excluding southern coastline) adds credence for future projected changes in seasonality here. However, coupled simulations exhibit timing biases over the Horn of Africa, with the long rains 20 days late on average. Although both sets of simulations detect biannual rainfall seasonal cycles for East and Central Africa, coupled simulations fail to capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline. This is linked with errors in the Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperature (SST) and deficient representation of the SST/rainfall relationship

Insights into the impacts of rural honey hunting in Zambia

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData Availability Statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request

Crushing singularities in spacetimes with spherical, plane and hyperbolic symmetry

It is shown that the initial singularities in spatially compact spacetimes with spherical, plane or hyperbolic symmetry admitting a compact constant mean curvature hypersurface are crushing singularities when the matter content of spacetime is described by the Vlasov equation (collisionless matter) or the wave equation (massless scalar field). In the spherically symmetric case it is further shown that if the spacetime admits a maximal slice then there are crushing singularities both in the past and in the future. The essential properties of the matter models chosen are that their energy-momentum tensors satisfy certain inequalities and that they do not develop singularities in a given regular background spacetime.Comment: 19 page

Large emergency-response exercises: qualitative characteristics - a survey

Exercises, drills, or simulations are widely used, by governments, agencies and commercial organizations, to simulate serious incidents and train staff how to respond to them. International cooperation has led to increasingly large-scale exercises, often involving hundreds or even thousands of participants in many locations. The difference between ‘large’ and ‘small’ exercises is more than one of size: (a) Large exercises are more ‘experiential’ and more likely to undermine any model of reality that single organizations may create; (b) they create a ‘play space’ in which organizations and individuals act out their own needs and identifications, and a ritual with strong social implications; (c) group-analytic psychotherapy suggests that the emotions aroused in a large group may be stronger and more difficult to control. Feelings are an unacknowledged major factor in the success or failure of exercises; (d) successful large exercises help improve the nature of trust between individuals and the organizations they represent, changing it from a situational trust to a personal trust; (e) it is more difficult to learn from large exercises or to apply the lessons identified; (f) however, large exercises can help develop organizations and individuals. Exercises (and simulation in general) need to be approached from a broader multidisciplinary direction if their full potential is to be realized

Introducing an online community into a clinical education setting: a pilot study of student and staff engagement and outcomes using blended learning

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are growing reasons to use both information and communication functions of learning technologies as part of clinical education, but the literature offers few accounts of such implementations or evaluations of their impact. This paper details the process of implementing a blend of online and face-to-face learning and teaching in a clinical education setting and it reports on the educational impact of this innovation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study designed an online community to complement a series of on-site workshops and monitored its use over a semester. Quantitative and qualitative data recording 43 final-year medical students' and 13 clinical educators' experiences with this blended approach to learning and teaching were analysed using access, adoption and quality criteria as measures of impact.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The introduction of the online community produced high student ratings of the quality of learning and teaching and it produced student academic results that were equivalent to those from face-to-face-only learning and teaching. Staff had mixed views about using blended learning.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Projects such as this take skilled effort and time. Strong incentives are required to encourage clinical staff and students to use a new mode of communication. A more synchronous or multi-channel communication feedback system might stimulate increased adoption. Cultural change in clinical teaching is also required before clinical education can benefit more widely from initiatives such as this.</p

Do we have the right models for scaling up health services to achieve the Millennium Development Goals?

There is widespread agreement on the need for scaling up in the health sector to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). But many countries are not on track to reach the MDG targets. The dominant approach used by global health initiatives promotes uniform interventions and targets, assuming that specific technical interventions tested in one country can be replicated across countries to rapidly expand coverage. Yet countries scale up health services and progress against the MDGs at very different rates. Global health initiatives need to take advantage of what has been learned about scaling up.UKai