Global oil outlook: return to the absence of surplus and its implications

As we approach the end of the 20th century, the global oil picture starts to look more like the early 1970s, which set the scene for the first oil crisis in 1973. The "security margin" -- the gap between demand and production capacity, has been shrinking since the early 1990s. In 1985 OPEC was producing at only 55% of capacity. By 1997 capacity utilization had risen to 95% and, barring the full re-entry of Iraq into the oil market, capacity utilization in 1998 is projected to rise to 96% with a growth of more than 1.6 million barrels a day (mbd) in global demand. No wonder, then, that the "capacity question" has been termed "oil's perennial problem". The dilemma confronting producers is either they face the danger of over investing if demand grows slowly or not at all, or they run the risk of investing too little, too late. Yet, without outright investment, the capacity constraint may start to bite at some point in the near future. This paper will endeavour to analyse the origins of the shrinking "security margin" and its impact on the global oil supplies, the price of oil and the global economy. It will argue that under such conditions, one has to seriously consider the possiblity of a third oil crisis capable of again disrupting the global economy, triggered again by political upheaval in the Middle East.Call on OPEC Capacity expansion Economic rent Global dependence Reserves Security margin Stockpiles Taxation

Can renewable and unconventional energy sources bridge the global energy gap in the 21st century?

Energy experts project that global oil supplies will only meet demand until global oil production has peaked sometime between 2013 and 2020. Declining oil production after peak production will cause a global energy gap to develop, which will have to be bridged by unconventional and renewable energy sources. Nuclear, solar and hydrogen are destined to become major energy sources during the 21st century, but only if their enabling technologies improve significantly to ensure affordability and convenience of use. This paper will argue that global oil production will probably peak between 2004 and 2005, causing a serious energy gap to develop sometime between 2008 and 2010 rather than 2013-2020 as the energy experts projected. It will also argue that a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is inevitable. The paper will conclude, however, that fossil fuels with a growing contribution from nuclear energy, will still be supplying the major part of the global energy needs for most, perhaps all, of the 21st century.Energy gap Oil reserves Nuclear Renewables Synfuels Photovoltaic Hydrogen

The new frontiers for the United States energy security in the 21st century

Four major themes will dominate United States energy-security in the 21st century. One is the need to diversify the fuel mix (i.e., oil, natural gas, nuclear power, hydro-electricity and other renewable and alternative energy resources). Another is the need to diversify the geographic origin of energy. A third theme is conservation and energy efficiency. And the final theme is devising new ways of managing growing dependence on oil imports rather than aiming at achieving "energy independence". This paper will examine the new frontiers of the United States' energy security in the 21st century. It will argue that fossil fuels will continue to dominate US energy needs well into the 21st century and that the Gulf region will maintain its strategic importance for US energy security for the foreseeable future. The paper will conclude that US energy-security could be better served by devising ways of managing dependence on oil imports rather than engaging in meaningless debate over energy independence.Energy security Diversification Efficiency Dependence Hemispheric policy