93 research outputs found
Multiple shifts and fractional integration in the us and uk unemployment rates
This paper analyses the long-run behaviour of the US and UK unemployment rates by testing for possibly fractional orders of integration and multiple shifts using a sample of over 100 annual observations. The results show that the orders of integration are higher than 0 in both series, which implies long memory. If we assume that the underlying disturbances are white noise, the values are higher than 0.5, i.e., nonstationary. However, if the disturbances are autocorrelated, the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0.5), implying stationarity and mean-reverting behaviour. Moreover, when multiple shifts are taken into account, unemployment is more persistent in the US than in the UK, implying the need for stronger policy action in the former to bring unemployment back to its original level
Sources Of Inflation And Output Fluctuations In Poland And Hungary: Implications For Full Membership In The European Union
Global Economic Rivalry: New Perspectives on Germany (the EC), Japan and the United States
- …