Fiscal Policy, Trigger Points and Interest Rates: Additional Evidence From the U.S.

We empirically investigate whether the relationship between interest rates and public deficits/debt may be nonlinear for the U.S. Using threshold estimation, we find evidence of level-dependent effects on interest rates, implying a significant effect of projected deficits and debt in the U.S. only if the deficit surpasses approximately 5% of GDP

Modeling the defense-growth nexus in Guatemala

The defense-growth nexus is investigated empirically using longitudinal data for Guatemala and allowing the effect of defense spending on growth to be nonlinear. Using recently developed econometric methods involving threshold regressions, evidence of a level-dependent effect of military expenditure on GDP growth is found: A positive and significant externality effect of defense spending prevails for relatively low levels of defense spending and becomes negative, albeit insignificant, for higher levels. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

On the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers

The smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers (proxied by government expenditures) on business cycle volatility is studied for a panel of European Union (EU) countries in the period 1970–1999. Special emphasis is put on the investigation of possible nonlinearities in the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth volatility and fiscal stabilizers. The results show that the business cycle volatility smoothing effect of fiscal stabilizers may revert at high levels. The results hold when using government revenues as a proxy for fiscal stabilizers.

Microbial Succession during Thermophilic Digestion: The Potential of Methanosarcina sp

A distinct succession from a hydrolytic to a hydrogeno- and acetotrophic community was well documented by DGGE (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis) and dHPLC (denaturing high performance liquid chromatography), and confirmed by qPCR (quantitative PCR) measurements and DNA sequence analyses. We could prove that Methanosarcina thermophila has been the most important key player during the investigated anaerobic digestion process. This organism was able to terminate a stagnation phase, most probable caused by a decreased pH and accumulated acetic acid following an initial hydrolytic stage. The lack in Methanosarcina sp. could not be compensated by high numbers of Methanothermobacter sp. or Methanoculleus sp., which were predominant during the initial or during the stagnation phase of the fermentation, respectively