Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies

There is a vast literature on exchange rate forecasting focusing on developed economies. Since the early 1990s, many developing economies have liberalized their financial accounts, and become an integral part of the international financial system. A series of financial crises experienced by these emerging market economies ed them to switch to some form of a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with inflation targeting. These developments, in turn, accentuate the need for exchange rate forecasting in such economies. This paper is a first attempt to compile data from the emerging Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies, to evaluate the performance of versions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, and time series models for forecasting exchange rates. Forecast performance of these models at various horizons are evaluated against that of a random walk, which, overwhelmingly, was found to be the best exchange rate predictor for developed economies in the previous literature. Following Clark and West (2006, 2007) for forecast performance analysis, we report that in short horizons, structural models and time series models outperform the random walk for the six CEE countries in the data set

Experimental manifestation of the breakpoint region in the current-voltage characteristics of intrinsic Josephson junctions

The experimental evidence of the breakpoint on the current-voltage characteristics (IVCs) of the stacks of intrinsic Josephson junctions (IJJs) is presented. The influence of the capacitive coupling on the IVCs of Bi$_2$Sr$_2$CaCu$_2$O$_y$ IJJs has been investigated. At 4.2 K, clear breakpoint region is observed on the branches in the IVCs. It is found that the hysteresis observed on the IVC is suppressed due to the coupling compared with that expected from the McCumber parameter. Measurements agree well with the results obtained by the theoretical model.Comment: 3 pages, 4 figure

Experimental observation of the longitudinal plasma excitation in intrinsic Josephson junctions

We have investigated the current-voltage characteristics (IVCs) of intrinsic Josephson junctions (IJJs). Recently, it is predicted that the longitudinal plasma wave can be excited by the parametric resonance in IJJs. Such an excitation induces a singularity called as breakpoint region around switch back region in the IVC. We have succeeded in the observation of the breakpoint region in the IVC of the mesa with 5 IJJs at 4.2 K. Furthermore, it is found that the temperature dependence of the breakpoint current is in agreement with the theoretical prediction. This suggests that the wave number of the excited plasma wave varies with temperature.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures. Dubna-Nano2008, Accepted for JPCS

Discovery of the VHE gamma-ray source HESS J1641-463

A new TeV source, HESS J1641-463, has been serendipitously discovered in the Galactic plane by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) at a significance level of 8.6 standard deviations. The observations of HESS J1641-463 were performed between 2004 and 2011 and the source has a moderate flux level of 1.7% of the Crab Nebula flux at E > 1 TeV. HESS J1641-463 has a rather hard photon index of 1.99 +- 0.13_stat +- 0.20_sys. HESS J1641-463 is positionally coincident with the radio supernova remnant SNR G338.5+0.1, but no clear X-ray counterpart has been found in archival Chandra observations of the region. Different possible VHE production scenarios will be discussed in this contribution.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, 2012 Fermi Symposium proceedings - eConf C12102

Advances in targeted Alpha therapy for prostate cancer

BACKGROUND: Amongst therapeutic radiopharmaceuticals, targeted alpha therapy (TαT) can deliver potent and local radiation selectively to cancer cells as well as the tumor microenvironment and thereby control cancer while minimizing toxicity. DESIGN: In this review, we discuss the history, progress, and future potential of TαT in the treatment of prostate cancer, including dosimetry-individualized treatment planning, combinations with small-molecule therapies, and conjugation to molecules directed against antigens expressed by prostate cancer cells, such as prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) or components of the tumor microenvironment. RESULTS: A clinical proof of concept that TαT is efficacious in treating bone-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer has been demonstrated by radium-223 via improved overall survival and long-term safety/tolerability in the phase III ALSYMPCA trial. Dosimetry calculation and pharmacokinetic measurements of TαT provide the potential for optimization and individualized treatment planning for a precision medicine-based cancer management paradigm. The ability to combine TαTs with other agents, including chemotherapy, androgen receptor (AR)-targeting agents, DNA repair inhibitors, and immuno-oncology agents, is under investigation. Currently, TαTs that specifically target prostate cancer cells expressing PSMA represents a promising therapeutic approach. Both PSMA-targeted actinium-225 and thorium-227 conjugates are under investigation. CONCLUSIONS: The described clinical benefit, safety and tolerability of radium-223 and the recent progress in TαT trial development suggest that TαT occupies an important new role in prostate cancer treatment. Ongoing studies with newer dosimetry methods, PSMA targeting, and novel approaches to combination therapies should expand the utility of TαT in prostate cancer treatment

Deformation of Equilibrium Shape of a Vesicle Induced by Injected Flexible Polymers

Using field theoretic approach, we study equilibrium shape deformation of a vesicle induced by the presence of enclosed flexible polymers, which is a simple model of drug delivery system or endocytosis. To evaluate the total free energy of this system, it is necessary to calculate the bending elastic energy of the membrane, the conformation entropy of the polymers and their interactions. For this purpose, we combine phase field theory for the membrane and self-consistent field theory for the polymers. Simulations on this coupled model system for axiosymmetric shapes show a shape deformation of the vesicle induced by introducing polymers into it. We examined the dependence of the stability of the vesicle shape on the chain length of the polymers and the packing ratio of the vesicle. We present a simple model calculation that shows the relative stability of the prolate shape compared to the oblate shape.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Comparison of spinal cord stimulation profiles from intra- and extradural electrode arrangements by finite element modelling

Spinal cord stimulation currently relies on extradural electrode arrays that are separated from the spinal cord surface by a highly conducting layer of cerebrospinal fluid. It has recently been suggested that intradural placement of the electrodes in direct contact with the pial surface could greatly enhance the specificity and efficiency of stimulation. The present computational study aims at quantifying and comparing the electrical current distributions as well as the spatial recruitment profiles resulting from extra- and intra-dural electrode arrangements. The electrical potential distribution is calculated using a 3D finite element model of the human thoracic spinal canal. The likely recruitment areas are then obtained using the potential as input to an equivalent circuit model of the pre-threshold axonal response. The results show that the current threshold to recruitment of axons in the dorsal column is more than an order of magnitude smaller for intradural than extradural stimulation. Intradural placement of the electrodes also leads to much higher contrast between the stimulation thresholds for the dorsal root entry zone and the dorsal column, allowing better focusing of the stimulus