Predicting the Impact of Long-Term Temperature Changes on the Epidemiology and Control of Schistosomiasis: A Mechanistic Model

, the causative agent of schistosomiasis in humans.The model showed that the impact of temperature on disease prevalence and abundance is not straightforward; the mean infection burden in humans increases up to 30°C, but then crashes at 35°C, primarily due to increased mortalities of the snail intermediate host. In addition, increased temperatures changed the dynamics of disease from stable, endemic infection to unstable, epidemic cycles at 35°C. However, the prevalence of infection was largely unchanged by increasing temperatures. Temperature increases also affected the response of the model to changes in each parameter, indicating certain control strategies may become less effective with local temperature changes. At lower temperatures, the most effective single control strategy is to target the adult parasites through chemotherapy. However, as temperatures increase, targeting the snail intermediate hosts, for example through molluscicide use, becomes more effective. will not respond to increased temperatures in a linear fashion, and the optimal control strategy is likely to change as temperatures change. It is only through a mechanistic approach, incorporating the combined effects of temperature on all stages of the life-cycle, that we can begin to predict the consequences of climate change on the incidence and severity of such diseases

Variability in childhood allergy and asthma across ethnicity, language, and residency duration in El Paso, Texas: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We evaluated the impact of migration to the USA-Mexico border city of El Paso, Texas (USA), parental language preference, and Hispanic ethnicity on childhood asthma to differentiate between its social and environmental determinants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Allergy and asthma prevalence was surveyed among 9797 fourth and fifth grade children enrolled in the El Paso Independent School District. Parents completed a respiratory health questionnaire, in either English or Spanish, and a sub-sample of children received spirometry testing at their school. Here we report asthma and allergy outcomes across ethnicity and El Paso residency duration.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Asthma and allergy prevalence increased with longer duration of El Paso residency independent of ethnicity and preferred language. Compared with immigrants who arrived in El Paso after entering first grade (18%), lifelong El Paso residents (68%) had more prevalent allergy (OR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.32 - 2.24), prevalent asthma (OR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.24 - 2.46), and current asthma (OR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.37 - 2.95). Spirometric measurements (FEV₁/FVC and FEF_25-75) also declined with increasing duration of El Paso residency (0.16% and 0.35% annual reduction, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings suggest that a community-wide environmental exposure in El Paso, delayed pulmonary development, or increased health of immigrants may be associated with allergy and asthma development in children raised there.</p