Policy design for the Anthropocene

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordToday, more than ever, ‘Spaceship Earth’ is an apt metaphor as we chart the boundaries for a safe planet1. Social scientists both analyse why society courts disaster by approaching or even overstepping these boundaries and try to design suitable policies to avoid these perils. Because the threats of transgressing planetary boundaries are global, long-run, uncertain and interconnected, they must be analysed together to avoid conflicts and take advantage of synergies. To obtain policies that are effective at both international and local levels requires careful analysis of the underlying mechanisms across scientific disciplines and approaches, and must take politics into account. In this Perspective, we examine the complexities of designing policies that can keep Earth within the biophysical limits favourable to human life.Stockholm Resilience CentreBECC - Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing ClimateMistra Carbon Exi

Meta-analysis of nature conservation values in Asia & Oceania: Data heterogeneity and benefit transfer issues

We conduct a meta-analysis (MA) of around 100 studies valuing nature conservation in Asia and Oceania. Dividing our dataset into two levels of heterogeneity in terms of good characteristics (endangered species vs. nature conservation more generally) and valuation methods, we show that the degree of regularity and conformity with theory and empirical expectations is higher for the more homogenous dataset of contingent valuation of endangered species. For example, we find that willingness to pay (WTP) for preservation of mammals tends to be higher than other species and that WTP for species preservation increases with income. Increasing the degree of heterogeneity in the valuation data, however, preserves much of the regularity, and the explanatory power of some of our models is in the range of other MA studies of goods typically assumed to be more homogenous (such as water quality). Subjecting our best MA models to a simple test forecasting values for out-of-sample observations, shows median (mean) forecasting errors of 24 (46) percent for endangered species and 46 (89) percent for nature conservation more generally, approaching levels that may be acceptable in benefit transfer for policy use. We recommend that the most prudent MA practice is to control for heterogeneity in regressions and sensitivity analysis, rather than to limit datasets by non-transparent criteria to a level of heterogeneity deemed acceptable to the individual analyst. However, the trade-off will always be present and the issue of acceptable level of heterogeneity in MA is far from settle

Woodfuels, livelihoods, and policy interventions: changing perspectives

In the 1970s, it appeared that fuelwood use was growing rapidly, and this could have major adverse impacts on the resource and poor users. By the mid-1980s, revised assessments indicated that there was less of a problem than had been foreseen, and much less of a need for forestry interventions to maintain supplies. As a result many of the latter were sharply scaled back. Additional information and analysis that has become available since the 1980s support the view that there is no need for large scale interventions devoted just to provision of fuelwood. However, declining access to supplies or markets can raise significant problems in some areas, and for particular categories of user. Growing urban demand for charcoal can also cause local problems, in particular in Africa. The potentials for appropriate forms of intervention are discussed

Fuelwood revisited: what has changed in the last decade?

The impact of woodfuel collection on forests has been controversial and its role in rural livelihoods and deforestation the subject of considerable debate. This study reviews the main dimensions of this discourse and the resulting responses from the forestry sector. It assesses new information that has come to light over the past decade, looking at national and global trends in woodfuel production and use and the evolution of patterns of urban and rural demand and supply. It examines livelihood and environmental dimensions of relevance to forestry and outlines some of the main issues that warrant additional attention. It is thus intended more as a foundation for further discussion, rather than being a set of prescriptions for action by forestry, though where these are evident they are identified

Differences in body structure and function between patients with systemic lupus erythematosus and healthy individuals, with particular reference to joint hypermobility

Objectives: To explore differences in body structure and function in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients and controls, with particular reference to joint hypermobility, and to evaluate the usefulness of the Brighton criteria for diagnosing joint hypermobility syndrome (JHS) in SLE. Method: Female SLE patients were, according to age group, consecutively invited to participate in the study. Controls were healthy females matched for age. All individuals were examined by a physician according to the Brighton criteria, and by an occupational therapist and a physiotherapist to obtain the Beighton scores, overall joint mobility, and manifestations in body structure and function. Results: Sixteen (23%) SLE patients and 19 (27%) controls had a Beighton score ≥ 4 (non-significant, ns), and 39 (55%) individuals in the SLE group and 22 (31%) in the control group satisfied the Brighton criteria for JHS (

Estimating returns to soil conservation adoption in the northern Ethiopian highlands

Land degradation in the form of soil erosion and nutrient depletion presents a threat to food security and sustainability of agricultural production in many developing countries. Governments and development agencies have invested substantial resources to promote soil conservation practices as part of an effort to improve environmental conditions and reduce poverty. However, limited rigorous empirical work has been done on the economics of soil conservation technology adoption. This article investigates the impact of stone bunds on value of crop production per hectare in low and high rainfall areas of the Ethiopian highlands using cross-sectional data from more than 900 households, with multiple plots per household. We have used modified random effects models, stochastic dominance analysis (SDA), and matching methods to ensure robustness. The parametric regression and SDA estimates are based on matched observations obtained from the nearest neighbor matching using propensity score estimates. This is important, because conventional regression and SDA estimates are obtained without ensuring that there actually exist comparable conserved and nonconserved plots on the distribution of covariates. We use matching methods, random effects, and Mundlak's approach to control selection and endogeneity bias that may arise due to correlation of unobserved heterogeneity and observed explanatory variables. We find that the three methods tell a consistent story. Plots with stone bunds are more productive than those without such technologies in semi-arid areas but not in higher rainfall areas, apparently because the moisture conserving benefits of this technology are more beneficial in drier areas. This implies that the performance of stone bunds varies by agro-ecology type, suggesting the need for designing and implementing appropriate site-specific technologies