Utilization of SAGE aerosol profiles in the analysis of Mauna Loa stratospheric lidar data

A systematic approach to analyzing lidar data collected at NOAA's Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) was developed which relies on parameters derived from SAGE satellite extinction profile measurements to verify boundary conditions applied to analysis. The approach also provides a means of assessing the uncertainties associated with the various inputs, so that the accuracy of the analysis of the MLO lidar data is available. The stratosphere during the 1980 to 1981 period was only mildly perturbed and could be easily represented by the SAMII/SAGE background aerosol model. The MLO lidar observations collected during this period provided stratospheric optical depths with uncertainties ranging between 15% and 25%. Uncertainties in the aerosol optical model contribute errors of 3% to 4% in the computed optical depths. Most of the optical depth uncertainty is associated with the calibration assumption in which no marked improvement can be expected

What do we know (and not know) about potential output?

Potential output is an important concept in economics. Policymakers often use a one-sector neoclassical model to think about long-run growth, and they often assume that potential output is a smooth series in the short run -- approximated by a medium- or long-run estimate. But in both the short and the long run, the one-sector model falls short empirically, reflecting the importance of rapid technological change in producing investment goods; and few, if any, modern macroeconomic models would imply that, at business cycle frequencies, potential output is a smooth series. Discussing these points allows the authors to discuss a range of other issues that are less well understood and where further research could be valuable.Economic development ; Economic conditions

Aggregate Productivity and the Productivity of Aggregates

Explanations of procyclical productivity play a key role in a variety of business-cycle models. Most of these models, however, explain this procyclicality within a representative-firm paradigm. This procedure is misleading. We decompose aggregate productivity changes into several terms, each of which has an economic interpretation. However, many of these terms measure composition effects such as reallocations of inputs across productive units. We apply this decomposition to U.S. data by aggregating from roughly the two-digit level to the private economy. We find that the compositional terms are significantly procyclical. Controlling for these terms virtually eliminates the evidence for increasing returns to scale, and implies that input growth is uncorrelated with technology change.

What do we know and not know about potential output?

Potential output is an important concept in economics. Policymakers often use a one-sector neoclassical model to think about long-run growth, and often assume that potential output is a smooth series in the short run--approximated by a medium- or long-run estimate. But in both the short and long run, the one-sector model falls short empirically, reflecting the importance of rapid technical change in producing investment goods; and few, if any, modern macroeconomic models would imply that, at business cycle frequencies, potential output is a smooth series. Discussing these points allows us to discuss a range of other issues that are less well understood, and where further research could be valuable.Input-output analysis ; Productivity ; Monetary policy

The fall and rise of the global economy

Economic conditions - United States ; Economies of scale

Measurement of forward-scatter cross sections in the melting layer

Forward scatter cross section measurement in melting layer of snow flake

Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?

China did not succumb to the Asian crisis of 1997-99, despite two apparent sources of vulnerability: a weak financial system and increased export competition from the Asian crisis economies. This article argues that both sources of vulnerability were more apparent than real. China's experience (especially its use of capital controls) does not offer a blueprint for other countries, because other countries would not want to replicate China's inefficient, non-market-oriented financial system.Banks and banking - China ; Economic conditions - China ; China

A Colon Evacuator

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