The path increasingly travelled: Vocational entry qualifications, socioeconomic status and university outcomes

Many countries have introduced flexibility in their admissions equivalents for tertiary education, allowing students to apply with vocational rather than academic qualifications at upper secondary level. However, entrants with vocational qualifications are generally less likely to succeed at university. Students from disadvantaged backgrounds are also, on average, less likely to succeed: they are more likely to drop out, or graduate with a lower class degree, even when they have the same prior attainment scores and take the same university course. Rich individual-level data in England drawn from administrative records allow us to link outcomes at university with social background and attainment and qualification routes at school, going back to lower secondary level, before academic and vocational pathways diverge. We can thus use the English example to explore whether the relative lack of success of students from low socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds is in part because they are more likely to enter university with non-traditional qualifications that offer less effective preparation for study. Our results reveal a significant penalty associated with entering university with these vocational qualifications. Controlling for qualification type reduces the SES gradient in dropping out of university by 42%, and graduation with a lower class degree by 28%, although significant SES gradients in success still remain. There is a tension between allowing students from lower SES backgrounds to use vocational routes to enter university and these persistent gaps in university outcomes. Countries using both vocational and academic routes as pathways to university should be aware of this potential conflict

Grade Expectations: How well can we predict future grades based on past performance?

The Covid-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented disruption of England's education system, including the cancellation of all formal examination. Instead of sitting exams, the class of 2020 will be assigned "calculated grades" based on predictions by their teachers. However, teacher predictions of pupil grades are a common feature of the English education system, with such predictions forming the basis of university applications in normal years. But previous research has shown these predictions are highly inaccurate, creating concern for teachers, pupils and parents. In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to improve on teachers' predictions, using detailed measures of pupils' past performance and non-linear and machine learning approaches. Despite lacking their informal knowledge, we can make modest improvements on the accuracy of teacher predictions with our models, with around 1 in 4 pupils being correctly predicted. We show that predictions are improved where we have information on 'related' GCSEs. We also find heterogeneity in the ability to predict successfully, according to student achievement, school type and subject of study. Notably, high achieving non-selective state school pupils are more likely to be under-predicted compared to their selective state and private school counterparts. Overall, the low rates of prediction, regardless of the approach taken, raises the question as to why predicted grades form such a crucial part of our education system

Computer memories: the history of computer form

This paper looks at the computer as a truly global form. The similar beige boxes found in offices across the world are analysed from the perspective of design history rather than that of the history of science and technology. Through the exploration of an archive of computer manufacturer's catalogues and concurrent design texts, this paper examines the changes that have occurred in the production and consumption of the computer in the context of the workplace, from its inception as a room-sized mainframe operated through a console of flashing lights, to the personal computer as a 'universal' form, reproduced by many manufacturers. It shows how the computer in the past has been as diverse as any other product, and asks how and why it now appears as a standardised, sanitised object. In doing so our relationship with the office computer, past and present is explored, revealing a complex history of vicissitude.</p

Fertility and population change in the United Kingdom

As in most wealthy countries, the United Kingdom (UK) population is aging and is set to continue to age for the next several decades. Recent and projected rates of change in the share of the elderly population are slow, however, compared to most other European Union (EU)-27 countries. Although since 1998 net migration has played some role, the UK’s relatively benign demographic profile has much to do with its relatively high fertility rates. Population issues, low fertility in particular, are not considered to be a major policy concern or an appropriate target for government intervention. A combination of moderately high fertility and high female employment has (at least historically) been achieved without implementing the kinds of work-family reconciliation policies that are credited with sustaining fertility elsewhere in Europe. A laissez-faire approach to the economy and residual approach to welfare may well have sustained UK fertility levels by facilitating childbearing in more socio-economically disadvantaged families. Recent, path-deviant, work-family reconciliation policies have been adopted, but the wider institutional context has moderated their potential to reduce the costs of childbearing

Tax relief and partnership pensions

Government support of private (occupational and personal) pensions through the system of tax reliefs is large: between one quarter and one third that of direct support of state pensions through public expenditure. However, it is regressive, lacks transparency and is difficult to control. This paper argues that it should be replaced by a cost-neutral matching grant or tax-credit scheme. Such a scheme would embody the ‘partnership’ idea implicit in much government policy in this area, but would be much more progressive, more open, and more accountable than existing arrangements. The argument is illustrated by statistical comparisons of the distributional impact of the present system and three alternative versions of the tax-credit scheme. An appendix discusses the methodology for calculating the cost of pension tax reliefs over time

Options for 1995 The Green Budget

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Tax options for 1990 The Green Budget

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Tax options for 1993 The Green Budget

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Options for 1994 The green budget

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