The Private Cost of Long-Term Care in Canada: Where You Live Matters

Canadians expect the same access to health care whether they are rich or poor, and wherever they live, often without direct charge at the point of service. However, we find that the private cost of long-term care differs greatly across the country, and within provinces, we find substantial variation, depending on income level, marital status, and, in Quebec alone, on assets owned. A non-married person with average income would pay more than twice as much in the Atlantic provinces as in Quebec, while a couple with one in care would pay almost four times as much in Newfoundland as in Alberta.long-term care, private cost

The Private Cost of Long-Term Care in Canada: Where You Live Matters

Canadians expect the same access to health care whether they are rich or poor, and wherever they live, often without direct charge at the point of service. However, we find that the private cost of long-term care differs greatly across the country, and within provinces, we find substantial variation, depending on income level, marital status, and, in Quebec alone, on assets owned. A non-married person with average income would pay more than twice as much in the Atlantic provinces as in Quebec, while a couple with one in care would pay almost four times as much in Newfoundland as in Alberta.long-term care , private cost

Population, Labour Force, and Long-term Economic Growth

The Canadian population is aging as the children of the "baby boom" move into and through middle age and then on toward the retirement years. The "baby bust" that followed the boom has slowed the rate of population growth and reduced sharply the supply of young people entering the labour force. The rates of participation of women in the labour force are now approaching those of men and little can be expected in the way of continuing further growth from that source. Immigration has thus taken on an important role in determining the rates of population and labour force growth. We explore these and related issues and draw out their implications for Canada's economic growth prospects.population; labour force; immigration; baby boom; economic growth

Some Demographic Consequences of Revising the Definition of 'Old' to Reflect Future Changes in Life Table Probabilities

Sixty-five has long been used to define the beginning of 'old age'. Yet it is clear that the definition is arbitrary, and with continuing reductions in mortality and morbidity rates it will become increasingly inappropriate as time passes. We consider how the definition might be modified to reflect changes in life table probabilities, and how the future numbers and proportions in 'old age' would be affected. In a similar manner we consider also the redefinition of the 'oldest old' from a current definition of 85 and over.life table probabilities; old age

Population Aging and the Maintenance of Social Support Systems

The baby boom generation is now well into middle age, and over the next few decades will reach old age. As the boom generation grows old the costs of maintaining existing social support systems will rise, and the ability or willingness to sustain those systems has been called into question. In this paper we discuss a number of issues related broadly to population aging in Canada and the associated social "costs," including the costs of public services. We conclude that while population-related cost increases should be expected, and reallocations of resources required, the overall increases should be of manageable proportions.population aging; social support systems; baby boom

The Changing Economic Circumstances of the Older Population: A Cohort Analysis

The paper provides an analysis of the economic circumstances of Canadian cohorts in older phases of the life cycle. It begins by discussing the definition of "old" and the case for an upward revision of the traditional age-65 definition. It then goes on to consider changes in patterns of labour force participation of older age groups, their income levels and distribution, the importance of government transfer payments, consumption levels and patterns of saving, the extent of home ownership and mortgage status, and the effects of inflation.older population; cohort; income; consumption; saving

Population Aging and the Macroeconomy: Explorations in the Use of Immigration as an Instrument of Control

Simulation methods are employed to explore the effects of immigration as a control instrument to offset the economic and demographic consequences of low fertility rates and aging population distribution. A neoclassical economic growth model is coupled with a demographic projection model. The combined model is calibrated and used in a series of experiments. The experiments are designed to generate the time paths of a hypothetical but realistic economic-demographic system under alternative assumptions about immigration policy. The government seeks to optimize policy results in the model, according to a specified criterion function. The model is calibrated with Canadian data but some experiments are carried out using initial populations and fertility rates of other countries.immigration, macroeconomy, aging population, low fertility

Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence

The aging of the population is expected to result in substantial increases in the costs of maintaining health care and pension programs, and that is a source of widespread concern. However, a proper assessment requires that attention be given to all categories of government expenditure, including education and others associated with younger age groups, and not just those associated with the older population. It requires also that privately provided goods and services be considered, since their costs must be charged against the same national income as publicly provided ones. Beyond that, it is important to recognize that population change affects not only the demand side of the economy, but also the supply side -- the economy's productive capacity. An important conclusion is that while other influences will no doubt play a role, demographic effects by themselves are likely to cause government expenditure (all categories, all levels of government combined) to increase by no more than the rate of growth of the population, and by less than the rate of growth of the gross domestic product. Taking public and private costs together, and assigning appropriate weights to different age groups, the overall "dependency ratio" can be expected to remain at its current low level for another decade and a half or two decades, and then to rise as the baby boom generation retires in large numbers. However, the projected future ratio never reaches the levels of the 1950s and 1960s. Although the overall "burden" of population aging is manageable, major adjustments will be required in the coming decades, especially in the area of federal/provincial cost sharing. For the most part, though, the effects of population aging are predictable, slow, and some time off.population aging; economic costs; dependency ratio

How Well Does the CPI Serve as an Index of Inflation for Older Age Groups?

The issue of whether the official Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index provides an adequate measure of inflation for the elderly population is investigated. Price indexes are calculated for older households using weights from the Family Expenditure Survey. The indexes are calculated for the period 1949-96 with 11 categories of commodities and services, and for 1979-96 with 26 categories. Separate indexes are calculated for a range of age groups, for three types of households, and for lower-income households as well as households at all income levels combined. In all cases the calculated index series are very close to the official CPI series.CPI; inflation; older households

Economic Costs of Population Aging.

In just over three decades all those born during the post-war baby boom will be 65 and older, and the fraction of the population ‘old’ will be far greater than previously experienced in Canada, or indeed in any modern industrial nation. That prospect has given rise to major concerns about our ability as a society to meet the large anticipated additions to health care, pension, and other costs associated with the increase in the older population. However, a balanced view requires that attention be given to all publicly provided services, not only to those services used in large measure by the elderly, and also to privately provided goods and services, since the costs must be charged against the same national income in both cases. Beyond that, it is important to recognize that population change affects not only the demand side of the economy, but also the supply side, the nation’s productive capacity. This paper reviews the literature to assess the magnitude of the prospective cost increases associated with the aging of the Canadian population and considers the practical implications for government programs and policies.