Debt management in Brazil : evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead

Brazil's domestic debt has posed two challenges to policymakers: it has grown very fast and, despite progress, remains extremely short in maturity. The authors analyze Brazil's experience with domestic public debt management, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years. After briefly reviewing the recent history of the country's domestic debt, they decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt in 1995-98, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main explanations: extremely high interest payments (caused by Brazil's weak fiscal stance and quasi-fixed exchange rate regime) and the accumulation of assets (especially obligations of Brazil's states). Simulations of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-to-GDP ratio from growing further. The authors'main policy advice is to foster and rely more on inflation-linked bonds--the least harmful way to lengthen debt maturity.Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Strategic Debt Management,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Strategic Debt Management,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Municipal Financial Management

Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth

In much of the world, growth is more stable than it once was. Looking at a sample of twentyfive countries, we find that in sixteen, real GDP growth is less volatile today than it was twenty years ago. And these declines are large, averaging more than fifty per cent. What accounts for the fact that real growth has been more stable in recent years? We survey the evidence and competing explanations and find support for the view that improved inventory management policies, coupled with financial innovation, adopting an inflation targeting scheme and increased central bank independence have all been associated with more stable real growth. Furthermore, we find weak evidence suggesting that increased commercial openness has coincided with increased output volatility.

Has Monetary Policy Become More Efficient? A Cross Country Analysis

Over the past twenty years, macroeconomic performance has improved in industrialized and developing countries alike. In a broad cross-section of countries inflation volatility has fallen markedly while output variability has either fallen or risen only slightly. This increased stability can be attributed to either: 1) more efficient policy-making by the monetary authority, 2) a reduction in the variability of the aggregate supply shocks, or 3) changes in the structure of the economy. In this paper we develop a method for measuring changes in performance, and allocate the source of performance changes to these two factors. Our technique involves estimating movements toward an inflation and output variability efficiency frontier, and shifts in the frontier itself. We study the change from the 1980s to the 1990s in the macroeconomic performance of 24 countries and find that, for most of the analyzed countries, more efficient policy has been the driving force behind improved macroeconomic performance.

Impact of Power Allocation and Antenna Directivity in the Capacity of a Multiuser Cognitive Ad Hoc Network

This paper studies the benefits that power control and antenna directivity can bring to the capacity of a multiuser cognitive radio network. The main objective is to optimize the secondary network sum rate under the capacity constraint of the primary network. Exploiting location awareness, antenna directivity, and the power control capability, the cognitive radio ad hoc network can broaden its coverage and improve capacity. Computer simulations show that by employing the proposed method the system performance is significantly enhanced compared to conventional fixed power allocation

Saturated Critical Heat Flux in a Multi-Microchannel Heat Sink Fed by a Split Flow System

An extensive experimental campaign has been carried out for the measurement of saturated critical heat flux in a multi-microchannel copper heat sink. The heat sink was formed by 29 parallel channels that were 199 μm wide and 756 μm deep. In order to increase the critical heat flux and reduce the two-phase pressure drop, a split flow system was implemented with one central inlet at the middle of the channels and two outlets at either end. The base critical heat flux was measured using three HFC Refrigerants (R134a, R236fa and R245fa) for mass fluxes ranging from 250 to 1500 kg/m2 s, inlet subcoolings from −25 to −5 K and saturation temperatures from 20 to 50 °C. The parametric effects of mass velocity, saturation temperature and inlet subcooling were investigated. The analysis showed that significantly higher CHF was obtainable with the split flow system (one inlet–two outlets) compared to the single inlet–single outlet system, providing also a much lower pressure drop. Notably several existing predictive methods matched the experimental data quite well and quantitatively predicted the benefit of higher CHF of the split flow

HSP: A Tool for Heat Stress Prevention for Farm Workers

We present the initial development of an integrated application for heat stress and heat related illness prevention in farm workers. In developing the application we have follow the OSHA guidelines and an extended project includes the social, cultural and economic factors of farm workers. Even though, our development focus is on workers in the California fields, we believe our project will be useful in multiple situations where individuals are exposed to extreme heat working conditions. This paper describes the motivation for our development, the overall approach we are following, and the first version of our application