EU-15 sovereign governments' cost of borrowing after seven years of Monetary Union

Yield spreads over 10-year German government securities of the EU-15 countries converged dramatically in the seven years after the beginning of Monetary Integration. In this paper, we investigate the relative influence of systemic and idiosyncratic risk factors on their behaviour. Our conclusions suggest that in EMU-countries the relative importance of domestic risk factors (both credit and liquidity risk factors) is higher than that of international factors, which appear to play a secondary but significant role in non-EMU countries.Monetary integration, sovereign securities markets, systemic and idiosyncratic risk

THE IMPACT OF MONETARY UNION ON EU-15 SOVEREIGN DEBT YIELD SPREADS

With European Monetary Union (EMU), there was an increase in the adjusted spreads (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) of euro participating countries’ sovereign securities over Germany and a decrease in those of non-euro countries. The objective of this paper is to study the reasons for this result, and in particular, whether the change in the price assigned by markets was due to domestic factors such as credit risk and/or market liquidity, or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence suggests that market size scale economies have increased since EMU for all European markets, so the effect of the various risk factors, even though it differs between euro and non-euro countries, is always dependent on the size of the market.Monetary integration, sovereign securities markets, international and domestic credit risk, and market liquidity

MONETARY INTEGRATION AND THE COST OF BORROWING

With the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU), euro-area sovereign securities’ adjusted spreads over Germany (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) experienced an increase that caused a lower than expected decline in borrowing costs. The objective of this paper is to study what explains that rising. In particular, if it took place a change in the price assigned by markets to domestic (credit risk and/or market liquidity) or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence supports the idea that a change in the market value of liquidity occurred with the EMU. International and default risk play a smaller role.Monetary integration, sovereign securities’ markets, international and domestic credit risk, and market liquidity

Liquidez y tamaño del mercado: diferenciales de rentabilidad a largo plazo tras la UME

El objetivo de este trabajo es el análisis de la importancia relativa de los principales factores de riesgo doméstico que componen los diferenciales de rentabilidad de la deuda pública a largo plazo tras la Integración Monetaria. Los resultados muestran que un cambio en la valoración del mercado de la prima de liquidez podría haber ocurrido con el inicio de la Unión Cambiaria

EU-15 sovereign governments’ cost of borrowing after seven years of monetary union

Yield spreads over 10-year German government securities of the EU-15 countries converged dramatically in the seven years after the beginning of Monetary Integration. In this paper, we investigate the relative influence of systemic and idiosyncratic risk factors on their behaviour. Our conclusions suggest that in EMU-countries the relative importance of domestic risk factors (both credit and liquidity risk factors) is higher than that of international factors, which appear to play a secondary but significant role in non-EMU countries

"Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach"

Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal relationship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of contagion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instruments that capture the total national debt (domestic and foreign) in each country.Sovereign bond yields, causality, time-varying contagion, euro area, peripheral EMU countries. JEL classification:E44, F36, G15

Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach

Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal relationship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of contagion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instruments that capture the total national debt (domestic and foreign) in each country.Nuestra investigación tiene como objetivo analizar las relaciones causales en el comportamiento de la deuda pública emitida por países miembros periféricos de la Unión Económica y Monetaria (UEM), con especial énfasis en los recientes episodios de crisis desatados en los mercados de deuda soberana de la zona euro desde 2009. Con este objetivo, empleamos una base de datos de la frecuencia diaria de los rendimientos de los bonos gubernamentales a 10 años emitidos por cinco países de la UEM (Grecia, Irlanda, Italia, Portugal y España), que abarca toda la historia de la UEM desde su inicio el 1 de enero de 1999 al 31 diciembre de 2010. En la primera etapa, se explora la relación causal por pares entre los rendimientos, tanto para la muestra completa y para submuestras cambiantes de los datos, con el fin de capturar posible relación causal en función del tiempo. Este enfoque nos permite detectar episodios de contagio entre los rendimientos de los bonos emitidos por países distintos. En el segundo paso, se estudian los factores determinantes de estos episodios de contagio, el análisis del papel desempeñado por diferentes factores, prestando especial atención a los instrumentos que capturan la deuda nacional total (doméstica y extranjera) en cada país.Sovereign bond yields, Causality, Time-varying contagion, Euro area, Peripheral EMU countries, Rendimientos bonos soberanos, Causalidad, Contagio variable en el tiempo, Eurozona, Países periféricos UEM.

Risk diversification in public debt markets in the eurozone

El objetivo de este trabajo es el análisis del impacto de la unión monetaria en las oportunidades de diversificación del riesgo de las carteras de deuda pública en la zona euro. Para ello, se examina la existencia de tendencias comunes en la evolución de la rentabilidad a diez años de los países de la UE-15 durante el período 1994-2008. A pesar de que se encuentra evidencia a favor de la cointegración múltiple, los resultados apoyan la existencia de más de una tendencia entre las rentabilidades a largo plazo de los países de la UE-15. Además, cuando se centra el análisis en los países de la zona euro, aunque la interdependencia aumenta, se sigue rechazando la existencia de una única tendencia común. Estos resultados tienen importantes implicaciones para los inversores en términos de sus posibilidades de diversificar el riesgo en un contexto de una moneda únicaThe aim of this study is to analyze the impact that the monetary union has had on risk diversifi cation opportunities in European public debt markets. We examine the common trends in the evolution of daily 10-year yields in EU-15 countries during 1994-2008. Despite finding evidence in favor of multiple cointegration, the results support the existence of more than one trend between long-term EU-15 sovereign yields. Furthermore, when we focus our analysis on the eurozone, although interdependency increases, we can still reject the existence of a single common trend. These results have important implications for investors in terms of their risk diversifi cation possibilities in a single currency contextLas autoras agradecen el apoyo financiero del Ministerio de Ciencia y Innovación a través de los proyectos ECO2010-21787-C03-01 y ECO2008-02458-E, respectivament