Retention efficiency for microplastic in a landscape estimated from empirically validated dynamic model predictions

Soils are recipients of microplastic that can be subsequently transferred to the sea. Land sources dominate inputs to the ocean, but knowledge gaps about microplastic retention by land hinder assessments of input rates. Here we present the first empirical evaluation of a dynamic microplastic fate model operating at landscape level. This mechanistic model accounts for hydrology, soil and sediment erosion, particle characteristics and behavior. We predict microplastic concentrations in water and sediments of the Henares river (Spain) within the measurement uncertainty boundaries (error factors below 2 and 10, respectively). Microplastic export from land and discharge by river fluctuates in a non-linear manner with precipitation and runoff variability. This indicates the need of accurate dynamic descriptions of soil and stream hydrology even when modeling microplastic fate and transport in generic scenarios and at low spatio-temporal resolution. A time-averaged landscape retention efficiency was calculated showing 20-50% of the microplastics added to the catchment over a multiannual period were retained. While the analysis reveals persistent uncertainties and knowledge gaps on microplastic sources to the catchment, these results contribute to the quantitative understanding of the role of terrestrial environments in accumulating microplastics, delaying their transport to the sea

Longer Growing Seasons Cause Hydrological Regime Shifts in Central European Forests

In this study, we present evidence for a hydrological regime shift in upland central European forests. Using a combination of long-term data, detailed field measurements and modelling, we show that there is a prolonged and persistent decline in annual runoff:precipitation ratios that is most likely linked to longer growing seasons. We performed a long term (1950-2018) water balance simulation for a Czech upland forest headwater catchment calibrated against measured streamflow and transpiration from deciduous and coniferous stands. Simulations were corroborated by long-term (1965-2018) borehole measurements and historical drought reports. A regime shift from positive to negative catchment water balances likely occurred in the early part of this century. Since 2007, annual runoff:precipitation ratios have been below the long-term average. Annual average temperatures have increased, but there have been no notable long term trends in precipitation. Since 1980, there has been a pronounced April warming, likely leading to earlier leaf out and higher annual transpiration, making water unavailable for runoff generation and/or soil moisture recharge. Our results suggest a regime shift due to second order effects of climate change where increased transpiration associated with a longer growing season leads to a shift from light to water limitation in central European forests. This will require new approaches to managing forests where water limitation has previously not been a problem

Turbidity-discharge hysteresis in a meso-scale catchment: The importance of intermediate scale events

In-situ sensors for riverine water quality monitoring are a powerful tool to describe temporal variations when efficient and informative analyses are applied to the large quantities of data collected. Concentration-discharge hysteresis patterns observed during storm events give insights into headwater catchment processes. However, the applicability of this approach to larger catchments is less well known. Here, we evaluate the potential for high-frequency turbidity-discharge (Q) hysteresis patterns to give insights into processes operating in a meso-scale (722 km(2)) northern mixed land use catchment. As existing event identification methods did not work, we developed a new, objective method based on hydrograph characteristics and identified 76 events for further analysis. Qualitative event analysis identified three recurring patterns. Events with low mean Q (= 15 m(3)/s) were often associated with spring flood or snowmelt, and showed a disconnection between turbidity and Q. Intermediate Q events (mean Q: 2-11 m(3)/s) were the most informative when applying hysteresis indexes, since changes in turbidity and Q were actually connected. Hysteresis indexes could be calculated on a subset of 60 events, which showed heterogeneous responses: 38% had a clockwise response, 12% anticlockwise, 12% figure eight (clockwise-anticlockwise), 10% reverse figure eight (anticlockwise-clockwise) and 28% showed a complex response. Clockwise hysteresis responses were associated with the wetter winter and spring seasons. Generally, changes in Q and turbidity were small during anticlockwise hysteresis events. Precipitation often influenced figure-eight patterns, while complex patterns often occurred during summer low flows. Analysis of intermediate Q events can improve process understanding of meso-scale catchments and possibly aid in choosing appropriate management actions for targeting a specific observed pattern

Stakeholders' Perspectives on Microplastics in Sludge Applied to Agricultural Land

Microplastic (MPs) inputs to agricultural lands from wastewater and sewage sludge reuse in Europe have been estimated to be between 65,000 and 230,000 tons/year making the farm environment one of the major receptors and, possibly, environmental reservoirs of MPs. In Sweden there have been ongoing discussions since 1994 about environmental and health effects of sewage sludge application to agricultural lands. This debate on sludge use focused initially on metals, then moved on to pharmaceutical residues and currently has turned to MPs. In spite of the limited scientific information about environmental impacts of MPs in soils, governmental approval in Sweden to allow increased spreading of sludge on productive agricultural lands is moving forward. To study individual perceptions of the potential risks, interviews were conducted in 2020 with Swedish stakeholders who in some way work with the issue of sludge management. The results of these interviews provide an indication of not only how environmental risk information is interpreted by representatives from different sectors but also the degree to which perceived risks may shape environmental policy

Fiskodling i norr : en livsmedelsproduktion med miljöpotential

Under 1900-talets första hälft genomgick våra älvar en radikal förändring. Samtidigt som Sverige fick en klimatsmart energikälla skapades oavsiktligt helt nya ekosystem. Frågan är om dessa nya ekosystem behöver mänsklig intervention, också med tanke på den nu eskalerande klimateffekten, för att uppnå balans? En mångvetenskaplig grupp forskare vid SLU och Umeå universitet ställer nu frågan vilken ytterligare kunskap som behövs för att säkerställa en eko-och sociosystembaserad skötselplan för våra norrländska kraftverksmagasin. En plan som både tar hänsyn till miljön, lokalsamhället och Sveriges behov av ökad inhemsk livsmedelsförsörjning

Gridded climate data products are an alternative to instrumental measurements as inputs to rainfall–runoff models

Rainfall-runoff models are widely used to predict flows using observed (instrumental) time series of air temperature and precipitation as inputs. Poor model performance is often associated with difficulties in estimating catchment-scale meteorological variables from point observations. Readily available gridded climate products are an underutilized source of temperature and precipitation time series for rainfall-runoff modelling, which may overcome some of the performance issues associated with poor-quality instrumental data in small headwater monitoring catchments. Here we compare the performance of instrumental measured and E-OBS gridded temperature and precipitation time series as inputs in the rainfall-runoff models "PERSiST" and "HBV" for flow prediction in six small Swedish catchments. For both models and most catchments, the gridded data produced statistically better simulations than did those obtained using instrumental measurements. Despite the high correspondence between instrumental and gridded temperature, both temperature and precipitation were responsible for the difference. We conclude that (a) gridded climate products such as the E-OBS dataset could be more widely used as alternative input to rainfall-runoff models, even when instrumental measurements are available, and (b) the processing applied to gridded climate products appears to provide a more realistic approximation of small catchment-scale temperature and precipitation patterns needed for flow simulations. Further research on this issue is needed and encouraged

Water quality in a large complex catchment: Significant effects of land use and soil type but limited ability to detect trends

Globally, significant societal resources are devoted to mitigating negative effects of eutrophication from excessive phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) loading. Potential effectiveness of mitigation measures and possible confounding factors are often assessed using studies conducted in headwater catchments. However, success is often evaluated based on trends in river mouth water chemistry. It is not clear how transferrable insights from headwater catchments are to larger rivers. Here, relationships between P and suspended solids (SS) identified in small agricultural headwater catchments were applied to 30 larger, mixed land use catchments draining into Malaren, ¨ a Swedish great lake. Relationships identified in headwater streams between SS concentration, catchment agricultural land percentage and arable land clay content were corroborated for the larger catchments (R2 = 0.59, p-valu

Assessing temporal scales and patterns in time series: Comparing methods based on redundancy analysis

Time-series modelling techniques are powerful tools for studying temporal scaling structures and dynamics present in ecological and other complex systems and are gaining popularity for assessing resilience quantitatively. Among other methods, canonical ordinations based on redundancy analysis are increasingly used for determining temporal scaling patterns that are inherent in ecological data. However, modelling outcomes and thus inference about ecological dynamics and resilience may vary depending on the approaches used. In this study, we compare the statistical performance, logical consistency and information content of two approaches: (i) asymmetric eigenvector maps (AEM) that account for linear trends and (ii) symmetric distance-based Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM), which requires detrending of raw data to remove linear trends prior to analysis. Our comparison is done using long-term water quality data (25 years) from three Swedish lakes. This data set therefore provides the opportunity for assessing how the modelling approach used affects performance and inference in time series modelling. We found that AEM models had consistently more explanatory power than MEM, and in two out of three lakes AEM extracted one more temporal scale than MEM. The scale-specific patterns detected by AEM and MEM were uncorrelated. Also individual water quality variables explaining these patterns differed between methods, suggesting that inferences about systems dynamics are dependent on modelling approach. These findings suggest that AEM might be more suitable for assessing dynamics in time series analysis compared to MEM when temporal trends are relevant. The AEM approach is logically consistent with temporal autocorrelation where earlier conditions can influence later conditions but not vice versa. The symmetric MEM approach, which ignores the asymmetric nature of time, might be suitable for addressing specific questions about the importance of correlations in fluctuation patterns where there are no confounding elements of linear trends or a need to assess causality

Cost effectiveness of nutrient retention in constructed wetlands at a landscape level

Since 1990, over 13 000 ha of constructed wetlands (CWs) have been implemented to increase biodiversity and reduce nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads to Swedish waters. Despite the considerable number of CWs and ambitious investments planned for the coming three years, there is limited follow up of cost-efficiency of catchment- and landscape-scale nutrient retention by existing CWs. Such follow up evaluation could provide clear guidance regarding optimal size and location of future CWs. We present a three-step modelling approach to assess cost-efficiency of 233 CWs in two Swedish regions (East, 4321 km2, and West, 916 km2). Modelled nutrient retention in CWs was predominantly low, especially in the East, due to their suboptimal location in catchments, e.g., with inadequate upstream areas (low hydraulic loads) and/or low share of arable land (low nutrient loads). Suboptimal location of CWs generates both higher than necessary costs and low area-specific nutrient retention, leading to low cost-efficiency. Some high cost-efficiency CWs were identified, especially for N retention in the West. To increase their cost-efficiency, continued investments in CWs require clear guidance and instructions. To achieve optimal placement, both CW site and size in relation to incoming hydraulic and nutrient loads must be considered

Modelling sediment supply and transport in the River Lugg: strategies for controlling sediment loads

The River Lugg has particular problems with high sediment loads that have resulted in detrimental impacts on ecology and fisheries. A new dynamic, process-based model of hydrology and sediments (INCA- SED) has been developed and applied to the River Lugg system using an extensive data set from 1995–2008. The model simulates sediment sources and sinks throughout the catchment and gives a good representation of the sediment response at 22 reaches along the River Lugg. A key question considered in using the model is the management of sediment sources so that concentrations and bed loads can be reduced in the river system. Altogether, five sediment management scenarios were selected for testing on the River Lugg, including land use change, contour tillage, hedging and buffer strips. Running the model with parameters altered to simulate these five scenarios produced some interesting results. All scenarios achieved some reduction in sediment levels, with the 40% land use change achieving the best result with a 19% reduction. The other scenarios also achieved significant reductions of between 7% and 9%. Buffer strips produce the best result at close to 9%. The results suggest that if hedge introduction, contour tillage and buffer strips were all applied, sediment reductions would total 24%, considerably improving the current sediment situation. We present a novel cost-effectiveness analysis of our results where we use percentage of land removed from production as our cost function. Given the minimal loss of land associated with contour tillage, hedges and buffer strips, we suggest that these management practices are the most cost-effective combination to reduce sediment loads