ESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF DIFFERING PRICE-RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES ON THE NET INCOME OF SALINAS VALLEY LETTUCE PRODUCERS: A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION APPROACH

While government safety-net programs are used to mitigate the price risk for commodity producers, limited programs exist for specialty crop producers. Specialty crop producers utilize forward contracts to reduce downside price risk. In order to estimate the method of price-risk management, if any, that is preferable to selling at market determined prices, a stochastic simulation model was constructed. The completed simulation model was used to estimate probability distributions for Salinas Valley net income under different pricing scenarios. Probabilities of reaching various net income thresholds were compared. Results indicate that Salinas Valley lettuce producers should maximize profitability by using forward contracts.Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

Price Differences in a Durable Products Secondary Market: A Hedonic Price Analysis

Secondary markets have not historically possessed the characteristics necessary for market power to emerge, or effective product differentiation to be implemented. The potential effects of these characteristics on primary – secondary market interaction is generally not considered. The law of one price is expected to hold in secondary markets. By applying the hedonic technique to producer theory, and integrating the durability of the product directly into the profit maximizing conditions, potential differences in implicit prices between customer segments in the used bucket truck market are estimated. Applying weighted least squares to the hedonic equation, parameters were estimated to indicate whether differences in hedonic prices exist between customer segments in the secondary, utility construction equipment market. The hedonic approach accounted for differences in price due to physical characteristics, while underlying supply and demand conditions were accounted for using indicator variables for time. Estimated differences in the effects of physical characteristics on price, between industries, were identified using interaction terms. Results of the econometric estimation indicate that differences in physical product characteristics do not fully account for differences in price between customer segments in the secondary bucket truck market. If the law of one price can be violated in a secondary market, this could indicate market power. Future research on primary – secondary market interaction should consider the potential effects, if such market power does indeed exist

Economic Outlook for Representative Ranches Given the August 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

While projected cattle prices are considered to be the primary determinant of the financial viability of the representative ranches, the prices of feed crops and bi-products can also have an impact. The ranches produce hay and are often net buyers or net sellers. At least two of the ranches retain ownership through the backgrounding stage and feed some concentrates. The smaller Missouri ranch produces a number of grain and oilseed crops, and the smaller Texas ranch also raises broilers. Additionally, crop prices have an impact on fed cattle returns, which impacts feeder cattle prices. Projected livestock prices for FAPRI’s August 2007 Baseline are presented in Table 1. In general, beef cattle prices are projected to decline each year from 2008 though 2012, but feeder cattle prices are now expected to stay above $102/cwt. Specifically, prices for classes of cattle are projected to move as follows: • Feeder cattle prices are projected to peak at$118.46/cwt in 2008 and decline to $102.03/cwt by 2012. • Fat cattle prices peak at$94.21/cwt in 2008 and end at $86.40/cwt in 2012. • Cull cow prices range between$47.14/cwt and $52.98/cwt during the 2007-2012 period. Projected crop prices for FAPRI’s August 2007 Baseline are also summarized in Table 1. Individual crop prices are projected to move as follows: • The U.S. all hay prices are expected to hit a high of$123.20/ton in 2007 and then level off to $111.52/ton by 2012. • Corn prices start at$3.10/bu in 2007, peak at $3.38/bu in 2008, and end at$3.25/bu in 2012. • Wheat prices range between $5.11/bu and$4.19/bu between 2007 and 2012, with the highest price expectation in 2007. • Sorghum prices remain in the relatively tight range of $2.92/bu to$3.19/bu through 2012. • Soybean meal is expected to stay between $192.68/ton and$207.88/ton from 2007- 2012. Projected annual rates of change for variable cash expenses are summarized in Table 2. The rate of change in input prices comes from FAPRI’s August 2007 Baseline. Based on projections from Global Insight, annual interest rates paid for intermediate-term and long-term loans and interest rates earned on savings are also reported in Table 2. Assumed annual rates of change in land values over the 2007-2012 period are provided by the FAPRI Baseline and are projected to range between 3.51% and 13.68% per year.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries,

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2005-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms, and • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) January 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the January 2007 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing negative ending cash reserves and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing farms through the year 2012.Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2006 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2004-2011 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms, and • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) December 2006 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the December 2006 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing negative ending cash reserves and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing farms through the year 2011.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2005-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms, and • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the August 2007 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing negative ending cash reserves and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing farms through the year 2012.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

Under the January 2007 Baseline, 20 of the 64 crop farms are considered in good liquidity condition (less than a 25 percent chance of negative ending cash in 2012). Five crop farms have between a 25 percent and a 50 percent likelihood of negative ending cash. The remaining 39 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent chance of negative ending cash. Additionally, 30 of the 64 crop farms are considered in good equity position (less than a 25 percent chance of decreasing real net worth during the study period). Nine crop farms have between a 25 percent and 50 percent likelihood of losing real net worth, and 25 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent probability of decreasing real net worth. The following discussion provides an overall evaluation by commodity considering both liquidity and equity measures.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2007-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate agricultural operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: 1) Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. 2) Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by agricultural producers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the August 2007 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing a negative ending cash balance and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing producers through the year 2012. This report is organized into ten sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions utilized for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI August 2007 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third through sixth sections present the results of the simulation analyses for feed grain, wheat, cotton, and rice farms. The seventh and eighth sections summarize simulation results for dairy and cattle. Two appendices constitute the final sections of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process to develop the representative farms.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2006 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University develops and maintains data to simulate 100 representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations in major production areas in 28 states. The chief purpose of this analysis is to project those farms’ economic viability by region and commodity for 2006 through 2011. The data necessary to simulate the economic activity of these operations is developed through ongoing cooperation with panels of agricultural producers in each of these states. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) provided projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates in their August 2006 Baseline. Under the August 2006 Baseline, 14 of the 65 crop farms are considered in good liquidity condition (less than a 25 percent chance of negative ending cash in 2011). Ten crop farms have between a 25 percent and a 50 percent likelihood of negative ending cash. The remaining 41 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent chance of negative ending cash. Additionally, 23 of the 65 crop farms are considered in good equity position (less than a 25 percent chance of decreasing real net worth during the study period). Six crop farms have between a 25 percent and 50 percent likelihood of losing real net worth, and 36 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent probability of decreasing real net worth. The following discussion provides an overall evaluation by commodity considering both liquidity and equity measures.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2007-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate agricultural operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) December 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by agricultural producers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the December 2007 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing a negative ending cash balance and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing producers through the year 2012. This report is organized into ten sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions utilized for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI December 2007 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third through sixth sections present the results of the simulation analyses for feed grain, wheat, cotton, and rice farms. The seventh and eighth sections summarize simulation results for dairy and cattle. Two appendices constitute the final sections of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process to develop the representative farms.