Inflationary pressure determinants in México

An ongoing and difficult policy issue confronting monetary .authorities in many developing economies is how to maintain stable prices. Unstable prices create uncertainty, lower investment, and raise costs of doing business, thus lowering rates of growth. As a result, when a country, it is necessary to understand its particular inflationary dynamics. This paper develops a standard monetary inflation model and augments it to include imported inputs and labor costs in a theoretically plausible manner. Implications for implementing an empirical version of the model are also discussed.

Educational attainment and border income performance

Texas border areas face a variety of economic challenges. In today's labor markets, income performance depends increasingly on productivity, which is primarily a function of educational attainment. To examine the extent to which education influences border region incomes, a cross-section econometric model is estimated using county-level information. Data are drawn from the 1990 census for all 254 counties in Texas. Empirical results indicate that per capita income is influenced by educational, demographic, and geographic factors. Regression output is similar, but not identical, to estimates obtained for other regions of the country. Model simulation results indicate that border counties lost nearly $3.6 billion in personal income in 1990 due to below-average high school graduation rates.Education

Secondary education: its impact on border education

Employment (Economic theory)

Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy

Maquiladora in-bond manufacturing activities occupy positions of collective importance within many regional economies across Mexico. To date, empirical evidence regarding the predictability of maquiladora activities in Mexico has not been attempted. To partially fill that gap in the literature, two sets of in-bond industry econometric forecasts for metropolitan economies in Northern Mexico are analyzed. Empirical results indicate that accurate forecasts of metropolitan maquiladora variables may prove elusive.Regional Maquiladora Forecasting

Borderplex Economic Outlook: 2005-2007

Economic conditions remain healthy in the borderplex. That assessment is reflected by growth in output, business receipts, and personal incomes. Greater numbers of jobs allow the El Paso unemployment rate to trend downward as the local labor market strengthens. Although consumer indebtedness remains high, improved income and jobs performance generate additional retail activity, with total sales surpassing $8.3 billion in 2006. Expansion at Fort Bliss causes strong levels of positive net migration and accelerated population growth. That translates into greater volumes of residential construction in all years of the forecast. Because of the decision to allow real water rates to erode for a year or more, aggregate water consumption in El Paso is expected to increase following four consecutive years of declines. The outlooks for Las Cruces, Ciudad Juarez, and Chihuahua City are also relatively favorable.Econometric Forecast; Mexico Border Region

The Trough Deepens

As the third quarter of 2009 comes to a close, the Mexican economy remains severely battered. The latest INEGI data indicate that the second quarter of 2009 brought with it an annual GDP decrease, in real terms, of nearly 10.3 percent. The current consensus outlook calls for the light at the end of the tunnel to appear in 2010. In spite of this austere outlook, the financial system in Mexico has fared better than it did in prior recessions and the economy seems poised for growth once exports recover. The consensus outlook for real gross domestic product (GDP) calls for a noticeably sharp decline in 2009 of 7.1 percent. Relative to the consensus from last quarter, that represents a sharp downward revision. Individual panelist forecasts range from a drop of 6.5 percent to a steeper decline of 8.2 percent. An important source of the more pessimistic outlook is private consumption. Compared with the previous quarter, Mexican consumers are expected to reduce purchases by 6.9 percent, more than double the rate of decline expected three months ago.Mexico, Macroeconomic Forecast, Consensus Survey

Aztec Economic Woes Continue

Initial estimates for the first quarter of 2009 indicate that the Mexican economy declined by 8.2 percent from the same period in 2008. The leading economic indicator index of INEGI, the national statistics institute, points to additional economic contraction in the coming months. The Consensus Mexico survey results are in agreement with the INEGI barometer. Panelist projections for real gross domestic product point to a comparatively steep decline. The current consensus forecast calls for a real GDP decrease for Mexico of -4.8 percent for the year as a whole.Mexico Economic Outlook

Light at the End of Tunnel?

For 2009 as a whole, this quarter’s consensus outlook anticipates a steep decline of 6.9 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP). This outlook for inflation-adjusted GDP is not surprising given the panelists expectations for private consumption, as consumers are expected to reduce expenditures by 6.5 percent this year alone. Projections for the government stimulus package have declined substantially, however, with government consumption growth expected to slow to less than 1 percent. Diminished confidence in the Mexican business sector is still expected to cause total fixed investment to shrink at double digit rates. Given the lingering effects of the global economic downturn, the panelists also expect imports and exports to display steep contractions in excess of 11 and 22 percent, respectively. The 2009 consensus figure calls for consumer price increase in excess of 4 percent. Against this backdrop, the panelists expect a 2009 average exchange rate of 13.42 pesos per dollar. The consensus outlook for the 2009 yield on 28-day Treasury Certificates (CETES) holds steady at 5.5 percent, again, this quarter.Mexico, Macroeconomic Outlook, Consensus Survey

Borderplex Economic Outlook: 2006 – 2008

A variety of measures such as real output, retail receipts, and personal incomes show how the borderplex economy continues to expand (Table 1). Although employment growth is expected to subside, local labor market strength will be sufficiently robust to hold the El Paso unemployment rate well below its 32-year average of greater than 10 percent. Similarly, even though residential construction activity is expected to moderate slightly, overall housing activity is projected to remain high by historical standards. Expansion at Fort Bliss is the source for much of the heightened business activity as the arrivals of new troops translate into greater demand for housing, retail, and other services. By 2008, more than 13 thousand businesses are expected to be registered in El Paso. Per capita personal income is projected to exceed $26,200 that year. Additional detail obtained from simulations of the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model is presented below for El Paso, Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua City, and Las Cruces.U.S. - Mexico Border Region; Econometric Forecasts

El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy

There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the accuracy of regional housing sector forecasts. Much of the recent analysis conducted for this topic is developed for housing starts and indicates a relatively poor track record. This study examines residential real estate forecasts previously published for El Paso, TX using a structural econometric model. Model coverage is much broader than just starts. Similar to earlier studies, the previously published econometric predictions frequently do not fare very well against the selected random walk benchmarks utilized for the various series under consideration.applied econometrics, metropolitan housing sector forecasts, Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Political Economy, C53, R15, R31,