First-order cosmological phase transitions in the radiation dominated era

We consider first-order phase transitions of the Universe in the radiation-dominated era. We argue that in general the velocity of interfaces is non-relativistic due to the interaction with the plasma and the release of latent heat. We study the general evolution of such slow phase transitions, which comprise essentially a short reheating stage and a longer phase equilibrium stage. We perform a completely analytical description of both stages. Some rough approximations are needed for the first stage, due to the non-trivial relations between the quantities that determine the variation of temperature with time. The second stage, instead, is considerably simplified by the fact that it develops at a constant temperature, close to the critical one. Indeed, in this case the equations can be solved exactly, including back-reaction on the expansion of the Universe. This treatment also applies to phase transitions mediated by impurities. We also investigate the relations between the different parameters that govern the characteristics of the phase transition and its cosmological consequences, and discuss the dependence of these parameters with the particle content of the theory.Comment: 38 pages, 3 figures; v2: Minor changes, references added; v3: several typos correcte

Isolated oxygen defects in 3C- and 4H-SiC: A theoretical study

Ab initio calculations in the local-density approximation have been carried out in SiC to determine the possible configurations of the isolated oxygen impurity. Equilibrium geometry and occupation levels were calculated. Substitutional oxygen in 3C-SiC is a relatively shallow effective mass like double donor on the carbon site (O-C) and a hyperdeep double donor on the Si site (O-Si). In 4H-SiC O-C is still a double donor but with a more localized electron state. In 3C-SiC O-C is substantially more stable under any condition than O-Si or interstitial oxygen (O-i). In 4H-SiC O-C is also the most stable one except for heavy n-type doping. We propose that O-C is at the core of the electrically active oxygen-related defect family found by deep level transient spectroscopy in 4H-SiC. The consequences of the site preference of oxygen on the SiC/SiO2 interface are discussed

Cervical spine immobilisation following blunt trauma in pre-hospital and emergency care: a systematic review

Objectives To assess whether different cervical spine immobilisation strategies (full immobilisation, movement minimisation or no immobilisation), impact neurological and/or other outcomes for patients with suspected cervical spinal injury in the pre-hospital and emergency department setting. Design Systematic review following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Data sources MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library and two research registers were searched until September 2023. Eligibility criteria All comparative studies (prospective or retrospective) that examined the potential benefits and/or harms of immobilisation practices during pre-hospital and emergency care of patients with a potential cervical spine injury (pre-imaging) following blunt trauma. Data extraction and synthesis Two authors independently selected and extracted data. Risk of bias was appraised using the Cochrane ROBINS-I tool for non-randomised studies. Data were synthesised without meta-analysis. Results Six observational studies met the inclusion criteria. The methodological quality was variable, with most studies having serious or critical risk of bias. The effect of cervical spine immobilisation practices such as full immobilisation or movement minimisation during pre-hospital and emergency care did not show clear evidence of benefit for the prevention of neurological deterioration, spinal injuries and death compared with no immobilisation. However, increased pain, discomfort and anatomical complications were associated with collar application during immobilisation. Conclusions Despite the limited evidence, weak designs and limited generalisability, the available data suggest that pre-hospital cervical spine immobilisation (full immobilisation or movement minimisation) was of uncertain value due to the lack of demonstrable benefit and may lead to potential complications and adverse outcomes. High-quality randomised comparative studies are required to address this important question

Randomised controlled trial of analgesia for the management of acute severe pain from traumatic injury: study protocol for the paramedic analgesia comparing ketamine and morphine in trauma (PACKMaN)

Background Prehospital analgesia is often required after traumatic injury, currently morphine is the strongest parenteral analgesia routinely available for use by paramedics in the United Kingdom (UK) when treating patients with severe pain. This protocol describes a multi-centre, randomised, double blinded trial comparing the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ketamine and morphine for severe pain following acute traumatic injury. Methods A two arm pragmatic, phase III trial working with two large NHS ambulance services, with an internal pilot. Participants will be randomised in equal numbers to either (1) morphine or (2) ketamine by IV/IO injection. We aim to recruit 446 participants over the age of 16 years old, with a self-reported pain score of 7 or above out of 10. Randomised participants will receive a maximum of 20 mg of morphine, or a maximum of 30 mg of ketamine, to manage their pain. The primary outcome will be the sum of pain intensity difference. Secondary outcomes measure the effectiveness of pain relief and overall patient experience from randomisation to arrival at hospital as well as monitoring the adverse events, resource use and cost-effectiveness outcomes. Discussion The PACKMAN study is the first UK clinical trial addressing the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ketamine and morphine in treating acute severe pain from traumatic injury treated by NHS paramedics. The findings will inform future clinical practice and provide insights into the effectiveness of ketamine as a prehospital analgesia. Trial registration: ISRCTN, ISRCTN14124474. Registered 22 October 2020, https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN1412447

Cost-effectiveness of out-of-hospital continuous positive airway pressure for acute respiratory failure: decision analytic modelling using data from a feasibility trial

Background Standard prehospital management for Acute respiratory failure (ARF) involves controlled oxygen therapy. Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is a potentially beneficial alternative treatment, however, it is uncertain whether this could improve outcomes and provide value for money. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of prehospital CPAP in ARF. Methods A cost-utility economic evaluation was performed using a probabilistic decision tree model synthesising available evidence. The model consisted of a hypothetical cohort of patients in a representative ambulance service with undifferentiated ARF, receiving standard oxygen therapy or prehospital CPAP. Costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated using methods recommended by NICE. Results In the base case analysis, using CPAP effectiveness estimates form the ACUTE trial, the mean expected costs of standard care and prehospital CPAP were £15,201 and £14,850 respectively and the corresponding mean expected QALYs were 1.190 and 1.128, respectively. The mean ICER estimated as standard oxygen therapy compared to prehospital CPAP was £5685 per QALY which indicated that standard oxygen therapy strategy was likely to be cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY (67% probability). The scenario analysis, using effectiveness estimates from an updated meta-analysis, suggested that prehospital CPAP was more effective (mean incremental QALYs of 0.157), but also more expensive (mean incremental costs of £1522), than standard care. The mean ICER, estimated as prehospital CPAP compared to standard care, was £9712 per QALY. At the £20,000 per QALY prehospital CPAP was highly likely to be the most cost-effective strategy (94%). Conclusions Cost-effectiveness of prehospital CPAP depends upon the estimate of effectiveness. When based on a small pragmatic feasibility trial, standard oxygen therapy is cost-effective. When based on meta-analysis of heterogeneous trials, CPAP is cost-effective. Value of information analyses support commissioning of a large pragmatic effectiveness trial, providing feasibility and plausibility conditions are met

Formation and Evolution of Supermassive Black Holes

The correlation between the mass of supermassive black holes in galaxy nuclei and the mass of the galaxy spheroids or bulges (or more precisely their central velocity dispersion), suggests a common formation scenario for galaxies and their central black holes. The growth of bulges and black holes can commonly proceed through external gas accretion or hierarchical mergers, and are both related to starbursts. Internal dynamical processes control and regulate the rate of mass accretion. Self-regulation and feedback are the key of the correlation. It is possible that the growth of one component, either BH or bulge, takes over, breaking the correlation, as in Narrow Line Seyfert 1 objects. The formation of supermassive black holes can begin early in the universe, from the collapse of Population III, and then through gas accretion. The active black holes can then play a significant role in the re-ionization of the universe. The nuclear activity is now frequently invoked as a feedback to star formation in galaxies, and even more spectacularly in cooling flows. The growth of SMBH is certainly there self-regulated. SMBHs perturb their local environment, and the mergers of binary SMBHs help to heat and destroy central stellar cusps. The interpretation of the X-ray background yields important constraints on the history of AGN activity and obscuration, and the census of AGN at low and at high redshifts reveals the downsizing effect, already observed for star formation. History appears quite different for bright QSO and low-luminosity AGN: the first grow rapidly at high z, and their number density decreases then sharply, while the density of low-luminosity objects peaks more recently, and then decreases smoothly.Comment: 31 pages, 13 figures, review paper for Astrophysics Update

Prehospital early warning scores for adults with suspected sepsis: retrospective diagnostic cohort study

Background Ambulance services need to identify and prioritise patients with sepsis for early hospital assessment. We aimed to determine the accuracy of early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to identify sepsis that required urgent treatment. Methods We undertook a retrospective diagnostic cohort study involving adult emergency medical cases transported to Sheffield Teaching Hospitals ED by Yorkshire Ambulance Service in 2019. We used routine ambulance service data to calculate 21 early warning scores and categorise paramedic diagnostic impressions as sepsis, infection, non-specific presentation or other presentation. We linked cases to hospital records and identified those meeting the sepsis-3 definition who received urgent hospital treatment for sepsis (reference standard). Analysis determined the accuracy of strategies that combined early warning scores at varying thresholds for positivity with paramedic diagnostic impression. Results We linked 12 870/24 955 (51.6%) cases and identified 348/12 870 (2.7%) with a positive reference standard. None of the strategies provided sensitivity greater than 0.80 with positive predictive value greater than 0.15. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the National Early Warning Score, version 2 (NEWS2) applied to patients with a diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection was 0.756 (95% CI 0.729, 0.783). No other early warning score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2. Paramedic impression of sepsis or infection had sensitivity of 0.572 (0.519, 0.623) and positive predictive value of 0.156 (0.137, 0.176). NEWS2 thresholds of >4, >6 and >8 applied to patients with a diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection, respectively, provided sensitivities and positive predictive values of 0.522 (0.469, 0.574) and 0.216 (0.189, 0.245), 0.447 (0.395, 0.499) and 0.274 (0.239, 0.313), and 0.314 (0.268, 0.365) and 0.333 (0.284, 0.386). Conclusion No strategy is ideal but using NEWS2 alongside paramedic diagnostic impression of infection or sepsis could identify one-third to half of sepsis cases without prioritising unmanageable numbers. No other score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2

Prehospital early warning scores for adults with suspected sepsis: the PHEWS observational cohort and decision-analytic modelling study

Background Guidelines for sepsis recommend treating those at highest risk within 1 hour. The emergency care system can only achieve this if sepsis is recognised and prioritised. Ambulance services can use prehospital early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to prioritise patients for treatment or early assessment in the emergency department. Objectives To determine the accuracy, impact and cost-effectiveness of using early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to identify sepsis requiring urgent treatment. Design Retrospective diagnostic cohort study and decision-analytic modelling of operational consequences and cost-effectiveness. Setting Two ambulance services and four acute hospitals in England. Participants Adults transported to hospital by emergency ambulance, excluding episodes with injury, mental health problems, cardiac arrest, direct transfer to specialist services, or no vital signs recorded. Interventions Twenty-one early warning scores used alongside paramedic diagnostic impression, categorised as sepsis, infection, non-specific presentation, or other specific presentation. Main outcome measures Proportion of cases prioritised at the four hospitals; diagnostic accuracy for the sepsis-3 definition of sepsis and receiving urgent treatment (primary reference standard); daily number of cases with and without sepsis prioritised at a large and a small hospital; the minimum treatment effect associated with prioritisation at which each strategy would be cost-effective, compared to no prioritisation, assuming willingness to pay £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Results Data from 95,022 episodes involving 71,204 patients across four hospitals showed that most early warning scores operating at their pre-specified thresholds would prioritise more than 10% of cases when applied to non-specific attendances or all attendances. Data from 12,870 episodes at one hospital identified 348 (2.7%) with the primary reference standard. The National Early Warning Score, version 2 (NEWS2), had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when applied only to patients with a paramedic diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection (0.756, 95% confidence interval 0.729 to 0.783) or sepsis alone (0.655, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.68). None of the strategies provided high sensitivity (> 0.8) with acceptable positive predictive value (> 0.15). NEWS2 provided combinations of sensitivity and specificity that were similar or superior to all other early warning scores. Applying NEWS2 to paramedic diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection with thresholds of > 4, > 6 and > 8 respectively provided sensitivities and positive predictive values (95% confidence interval) of 0.522 (0.469 to 0.574) and 0.216 (0.189 to 0.245), 0.447 (0.395 to 0.499) and 0.274 (0.239 to 0.313), and 0.314 (0.268 to 0.365) and 0.333 (confidence interval 0.284 to 0.386). The mortality relative risk reduction from prioritisation at which each strategy would be cost-effective exceeded 0.975 for all strategies analysed. Limitations We estimated accuracy using a sample of older patients at one hospital. Reliable evidence was not available to estimate the effectiveness of prioritisation in the decision-analytic modelling. Conclusions No strategy is ideal but using NEWS2, in patients with a paramedic diagnostic impression of infection or sepsis could identify one-third to half of sepsis cases without prioritising unmanageable numbers. No other score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2. Research is needed to develop better definition, diagnosis and treatments for sepsis. Study registration This study is registered as Research Registry (reference: researchregistry5268). Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/136/10) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 16. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information

The accuracy of prehospital triage decisions in English trauma networks – a case-cohort study

Background Care for injured patients in England is provided by inclusive regional trauma networks. Ambulance services use triage tools to identify patients with major trauma who would benefit from expedited Major Trauma Centre (MTC) care. However, there has been no investigation of triage performance, despite its role in ensuring effective and efficient MTC care. This study aimed to investigate the accuracy of prehospital major trauma triage in representative English trauma networks. Methods A diagnostic case-cohort study was performed between November 2019 and February 2020 in 4 English regional trauma networks as part of the Major Trauma Triage Study (MATTS). Consecutive patients with acute injury presenting to participating ambulance services were included, together with all reference standard positive cases, and matched to data from the English national major trauma database. The index test was prehospital provider triage decision making, with a positive result defined as patient transport with a pre-alert call to the MTC. The primary reference standard was a consensus definition of serious injury that would benefit from expedited major trauma centre care. Secondary analyses explored different reference standards and compared theoretical triage tool accuracy to real-life triage decisions. Results The complete-case case-cohort sample consisted of 2,757 patients, including 959 primary reference standard positive patients. The prevalence of major trauma meeting the primary reference standard definition was 3.1% (n=54/1,722, 95% CI 2.3 – 4.0). Observed prehospital provider triage decisions demonstrated overall sensitivity of 46.7% (n=446/959, 95% CI 43.5-49.9) and specificity of 94.5% (n=1,703/1,798, 95% CI 93.4-95.6) for the primary reference standard. There was a clear trend of decreasing sensitivity and increasing specificity from younger to older age groups. Prehospital provider triage decisions commonly differed from the theoretical triage tool result, with ambulance service clinician judgement resulting in higher specificity. Conclusions Prehospital decision making for injured patients in English trauma networks demonstrated high specificity and low sensitivity, consistent with the targets for cost-effective triage defined in previous economic evaluations. Actual triage decisions differed from theoretical triage tool results, with a decreasing sensitivity and increasing specificity from younger to older ages