A Morbidity Submodel of Infectious Diseases

Numbers of sick persons with infectious diseases in a country can be estimated by the morbidity submodel of infectious diseases. The input of the model is the population structure of the country and the outputs are numbers of sick, deaths and prevalence rates of infectious diseases. The model makes use of three disease specific rates which are assumed to be constant across developed countries, namely morbidity rate, recovery rate, and death rate per capita. For this paper values of these three rates were calculated from Japanese survey data describing disease specific prevalence rate, death rate, and duration of stay. The outputs of the model are in good agreement with WHO statistics from Japan and other developed countries

An Approach to Building a Universal Health Care Model: Morbidity Model of Degenerative Diseases

There have been many different approaches to building health care models. Because of these differences, it is sometimes difficult to relate the developed models to each other. We have therefore first defined the submodels of the health care system and clarified the relation of our approach to studies already undertaken. The submodels also show the steps in building the health care model. The first step was to construct the morbidity model of degenerative diseases. The validity of the model was tested for various countries, using statistics from the World Health Organization. The fit of the model to empirical data was satisfactory. The model was applied to an international comparison and estimation of trends in degenerative diseases. The study showed the feasibility of this type of approach in health planning

Analysis and Future Estimation of Medical Demands Using a Health Care Simulation Model: A Case Study of Japan

A method of building a universal health care model was proposed in RM-77-006 (Kaihara, et al., An Approach to Building a Universal Health Care Model). This method is based on the calculation of essential parameters of health care from ordinary statistics. The essential parameters proposed in the previous report were population structure, morbidity rate, recovery rate, death rate, patient registration rate and awareness rate. The method was applied successfully to the analysis of medical demands at the national level of Japan. The results showed that in the past 15 years the awareness rate was the most important factor which contributed to the increase of the patients. But in the future, the model predicted that the change of population structure will be the main cause of the increase of the number of patients in Japan