Surrogate light curve models for kilonovae with comprehensive wind ejecta outflows and parameter estimation for AT2017gfo

The electromagnetic emission resulting from neutron star mergers have been shown to encode properties of the ejected material in their light curves. The ejecta properties inferred from the kilonova emission has been in tension with those calculated based on the gravitational wave signal and numerical relativity models. Motivated by this tension, we construct a broad set of surrogate light curve models derived for kilonova ejecta. The four-parameter family of two-dimensional anisotropic simulations and its associated surrogate explore different assumptions about the wind outflow morphology and outflow composition, keeping the dynamical ejecta component consistent. We present the capabilities of these surrogate models in interpolating kilonova light curves across various ejecta parameters and perform parameter estimation for AT2017gfo both without any assumptions on the outflow and under the assumption that the outflow must be representative of solar r-process abundance patterns. Our parameter estimation for AT2017gfo shows these surrogate models help alleviate the ejecta property discrepancy while also illustrating the impact of systematic modeling uncertainties on these properties, urging further investigation.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, data available in Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/record/7335961) and GitHub (https://github.com/markoris/surrogate_kne

Axisymmetric Radiative Transfer Models of Kilonovae

The detailed observations of GW170817 proved for the first time directly that neutron star mergers are a major production site of heavy elements. The observations could be fit by a number of simulations that qualitatively agree, but can quantitatively differ (e.g. in total r-process mass) by an order of magnitude. We categorize kilonova ejecta into several typical morphologies motivated by numerical simulations, and apply a radiative transfer Monte Carlo code to study how the geometric distribution of the ejecta shapes the emitted radiation. We find major impacts on both spectra and light curves. The peak bolometric luminosity can vary by two orders of magnitude and the timing of its peak by a factor of five. These findings provide the crucial implication that the ejecta masses inferred from observations around the peak brightness are uncertain by at least an order of magnitude. Mixed two-component models with lanthanide-rich ejecta are particularly sensitive to geometric distribution. A subset of mixed models shows very strong viewing angle dependence due to lanthanide "curtaining," which persists even if the relative mass of lanthanide-rich component is small. The angular dependence is weak in the rest of our models, but different geometric combinations of the two components lead to a highly diverse set of light curves. We identify geometry-dependent {P Cygni} features in late spectra that directly map out strong lines in the simulated opacity of neodymium, which can help to constrain the ejecta geometry and to directly probe the r-process abundances.Comment: 23 pages, 18 figures; accepted to Ap

CD or not CD, that is the question - a digital interobserver agreement study in coeliac disease

OBJECTIVE: Coeliac disease (CD) diagnosis generally depends on histological examination of duodenal biopsies. We present the first study analysing the concordance in examination of duodenal biopsies using digitised whole-slide images (WSIs). We further investigate whether the inclusion of IgA tTG and haemoglobin (Hb) data improves the inter-observer agreement of diagnosis.DESIGN: We undertook a large study of the concordance in histological examination of duodenal biopsies using digitised WSIs in an entirely virtual reporting setting. Our study was organised in two phases: in phase one, 13 pathologists independently classified 100 duodenal biopsies (40 normal; 40 CD; 20 indeterminate enteropathy) in the absence of any clinical or laboratory data. In phase two, the same pathologists examined the (re-anonymised) WSIs with the inclusion of IgA tTG and Hb data.RESULTS: We found the mean probability of two observers agreeing in the absence of additional data to be 0.73 (±0.08) with a corresponding Cohen's kappa of 0.59 (±0.11). We further showed that the inclusion of additional data increased the concordance to 0.80 (±0.06) with a Cohen's kappa coefficient of 0.67 (±0.09).CONCLUSION: We showed that the addition of serological data significantly improves the quality of CD diagnosis. However, the limited inter-observer agreement in CD diagnosis using digitised WSIs, even after the inclusion of IgA tTG and Hb data, indicates the important of interpreting duodenal biopsy in the appropriate clinical context. It further highlights the unmet need for an objective means of reproducible duodenal biopsy diagnosis, such as the automated analysis of WSIs using AI.<br/

Role of digital pathology in diagnostic histopathology in the response to COVID-19: results from a survey of experience in a UK tertiary referral hospital

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged our diagnostic services at a time when many histopathology departments already faced a diminishing workforce and increasing workload. Digital pathology (DP) has been hailed as a potential solution to at least some of the challenges faced. We present a survey of pathologists within a UK National Health Service cellular pathology department with access to DP, in which we ascertain the role of DP in clinical services during this current pandemic and explore challenges encountered. This survey indicates an increase in uptake of diagnostic DP during this period, with increased remote access. Half of respondents agreed that DP had facilitated maintenance of diagnostic practice. While challenges have been encountered, these are remediable, and none have impacted on the uptake of DP during this period. We conclude that in our institution, DP has demonstrated current and future potential to increase resilience in diagnostic practice and have highlighted some of the challenges that need to be considered