Inter-Regional Migration in Australia: an Applied Economic Analysis.

In analysing the effects of economic policy in a Federal system, such as Australia, it is important to understand the interactions between the States and Territories. In particular, given that there is free movement between labour markets, to analyse economic policy it is important to understand the factors influencing inter- regional migration. In this paper we use data from 1982 to 1996 to estimate a structural econometric model of inter-regional migration. The results are then used to re-specify and calibrate the Computable General Equilibrium model MONASH-MRF. This then provides a more detailed picture of labour market responses when we subsequently simulate the response of net interstate migration to changes in State Government spending.CGE models, Migration, MONASH-MRF.

Towards breaking the Omega-bias degeneracy in density--velocity comparisons

I derive a second-order local relation between the REDSHIFT-space mass density field and the REAL-space velocity field. This relation can be useful for comparisons between the cosmic density and peculiar velocity fields, for a number of reasons. First, relating the real-space velocity directly to the redshift-space density enables one to avoid the Omega-dependent reconstruction of the density field in real space. Secondly, the reconstruction of the three-dimensional velocity field in redshift space, questionable because of its vorticity, is also unnecessary. Finally, a similar relation between the GALAXY density field and the velocity field offers a way to break the Omega-bias degeneracy in density--velocity comparisons, when combined with an additional measurement of the redshift-space galaxy skewness. I derive the latter relation under the assumption of nonlinear but local bias; accounting for stochasticity of bias is left for further study.Comment: 13 pages, no figures, uses mn.sty. The calculation properly redone for bias in real space, added references. Accepted by MNRA

Mortgage innovation?

Mortgages ; Hawaii

Statistical modelling of financial crashes: Rapid growth, illusion of certainty and contagion

We develop a rational expectations model of financial bubbles and study ways in which a generic risk-return interplay is incorporated into prices. We retain the interpretation of the leading Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, namely, that the price must rise prior to a crash in order to compensate a representative investor for the level of risk. This is accompanied, in our stochastic model, by an illusion of certainty as described by a decreasing volatility function. The basic model is then extended to incorporate multivariate bubbles and contagion, non-Gaussian models and models based on stochastic volatility. Only in a stochastic volatility model where the mean of the log-returns is fixed does volatility increase prior to a crash.financial crashes; super-exponential growth; illusion of certainty; contagion

Inflation and economic growth in Pacific Basin developing economies

Inflation (Finance) - Pacific Basin ; Interest rates - Pacific Basin ; Pacific Area ; Economic development - Pacific Basin

Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices.

We develop a rational expectations model of financial bubbles and study ways in which a generic risk-return interplay is incorporated into prices. We retain the interpretation of the leading Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, namely, that the price must rise prior to a crash in order to compensate a representative investor for the level of risk. This is accompanied, in our stochastic model, by an illusion of certainty as described by a decreasing volatility function. As the volatility function goes to zero, crashes can be seen to represent a phase transition from stochastic to deterministic behaviour in prices.financial crashes; super-exponential growth; illusion of certainty; housing-bubble

Bubbles and contagion in English house prices

Using methods originating from statistical physics we model bubbles in English house prices. It is found that there was a nationwide housing bubble 2002-2007. Typically prices were 30-40% over-valued and fell around 20%. London is atypical in that the level of over-pricing was lower, only around 20%, and experienced a drop in prices of only around 15%. There is some suggestion of contagious effects, with the bubble in London affecting prices in Yorkshire and the North.financial crashes; super-exponential growth; illusion of certainty; contagion; housing-bubble; Enlish house prices

Foreign direct investment in a macroeconomic framework : finance, efficiency, incentives, and distortions

Does foreign direct investment (FDI) increase domestic investment, or does it provide additional foreign exchange for a pre-existing current account deficit, or some linear combination of the two? The author investigates this question for a group of five Pacific Basin countries and a control group of 11 other developing countries. For the sample of all 16 developing countries, the author finds that FDI does not provide additional balance of payments financing for a pre-existing current account deficit. In the control group of 11 developing countries, FDI is associated with reduced domestic investment - implying that FDI to those countries is simply a close substitute for other capital inflows. For the five Pacific Basin market economies, however, FDI raises domestic investment by the full extent of the FDI inflow. The author finds that FDI has a significantly negative impact on national saving in the sample of all 16 developing countries. For the control group, this negative effect is similar in magnitude to FDI's negative effect on domestic investment - implying a zero effect on the current account. But FDI's negative effect on national saving in the five Pacific Basin developing market economies implies that FDI could have more of a negative effect on the current account than through increased domestic investment alone. The author also investigates the impact of FDI on economic growth in these 16 countries, taking into account distortions in the economies. He estimates reduced-form current account equations, and presents an analytical framework for estimating FDI's effect on economic growth in the presence of incentive-disincentive packages and other economic distortions. He illustrates his framework using indicators of foreign trade and financial distortions. His main conclusion: the effect of FDI differs markedly from one group of countries to another. FDI has a negative effect on economic growth in the control group. It has the same positive effect on growth as domestically financed investment does in the Pacific Basin countries. The main cause for the different effect is the low level of distortion in the Pacific Basin countries.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Foreign Direct Investment,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Macroeconomic Management

Through a Pedagogy of Belonging: Creating Cross-Cultural Bridges in Doctoral Programs

In this article, a student (Jessica) and professor (Julie) with cross-cultural characteristics—such as race, various identities, power dynamics, and backgrounds—offer a thesis that pedagogies of belonging, or educational strategies meant to foster a sense of belonging, that start in the classroom can create cross-cultural bridges that endure throughout doctoral study, and enrich the lives of both teacher and student. We begin with our personal stories: a Ph.D. student who is Asian American, cisgender and heterosexual, an immigrant, and a transracial adoptee raised by white parents; and a professor who is white, LGBTQ, and raised by biological parents of the same race. We each identify a parallel experience in education where a sense of belonging was borne of a cross-cultural interaction, and where key, positive academic outcomes resulted. The article then reflects on the importance of finding a sense of belonging in higher education, and the ways in which a pedagogy of belonging—an approach to teaching that places emphasis on every student being and feeling like a valuable, integral part of the classroom community—can help create cross-cultural bridges between faculty mentors and doctoral students. We conclude by explaining how to deploy a pedagogy of belonging in the classroom and beyond.Educatio

Redshift distortions of galaxy correlation functions

To examine how peculiar velocities can affect the 2-, 3-, and 4-point redshift correlation functions, we evaluate volume-average correlations for configurations that emphasize and minimize redshift distortions for four different volume-limited samples from each of the CfA, SSRS, and IRAS redshift catalogs. We find a characteristic distortion for the 2-point correlation, \xibar_2: the slope $\gamma$ is flatter and the correlation length is larger in redshift space than in real space; that is, redshift distortions ``move'' correlations from small to large scales. At the largest scales (up to 12 \Mpc), the extra power in the redshift distribution is compatible with $\Omega^{4/7}/b \approx 1$. We estimate $\Omega^{4/7}/b$ to be $0.53 \pm 0.15$, $1.10 \pm 0.16$ and $0.84 \pm 0.45$ for the CfA, SSRS and IRAS catalogs. Higher order correlations \xibar_3 and \xibar_4 suffer similar redshift distortions, but in such a way that, within the accuracy of our analysis, the normalized amplitudes $S_3$ and $S_4$ are insensitive to this effect. The hierarchical amplitudes $S_3$ and $S_4$ are constant as a function of scale between 1--12 \Mpc and have similar values in all samples and catalogues, $S_3 \approx 2$ and $S_4 \approx 6$, despite the fact that \xibar_2, \xibar_3, and \xibar_4 differ from one sample to another by large factors (up to a factor of 4 in \xibar_2, 8 for \xibar_3, and 12 for \xibar_4). The agreement between the independent estimations of $S_3$ and $S_4$Comment: 20 pages (12 figues available on request), LaTeX, FERMILAB-Pub-93-097-