Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Rain-triggered lahars are a significant secondary hydrological and geomorphic hazard at volcanoes where unconsolidated pyroclastic material produced by explosive eruptions is exposed to intense rainfall, often occurring for years to decades after the initial eruptive activity. Previous studies have shown that secondary lahar initiation is a function of rainfall parameters, source material characteristics and time since eruptive activity. In this study, probabilistic rain-triggered lahar forecasting models are developed using the lahar occurrence and rainfall record of the Belham River valley at the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, collected between April 2010 and April 2012. In addition to the use of peak rainfall intensity (PRI) as a base forecasting parameter, considerations for the effects of rainfall seasonality and catchment evolution upon the initiation of rain-triggered lahars and the predictability of lahar generation are also incorporated into these models. Lahar probability increases with peak 1 h rainfall intensity throughout the 2-year dataset and is higher under given rainfall conditions in year 1 than year 2. The probability of lahars is also enhanced during the wet season, when large-scale synoptic weather systems (including tropical cyclones) are more common and antecedent rainfall and thus levels of deposit saturation are typically increased. The incorporation of antecedent conditions and catchment evolution into logistic-regression-based rain-triggered lahar probability estimation models is shown to enhance model performance and displays the potential for successful real-time prediction of lahars, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates and temporal catchment recovery

The archaeology of a landslide: Unravelling the Azores earthquake disaster of 1522 and its consequences

The multidisciplinary research described here shows how archaeologists can help reconstruct past seismic episodes and understand the subsequent relief operation, rehabilitation, and reconstruction processes. In October 1522, a major earthquake and landslide struck the then capital of the Azores, Vila Franca do Campo, 1500 km from the European mainland. Damage was extensive, destroying key monuments, affecting most of the inhabited area, and leaving few survivors among the early colonists. The results from twenty-six archaeological trenches, geological and geoarchaeological investigations, and documentary analysis are reviewed here. Distinctive archaeological deposits are identified and explained, using the high density of artefacts and the erosional contact between the landslide and the pre-1522 palaeosol to reconstruct the episode in detail

A flexible, quantitative plasmonic-fluor lateral flow assay for the rapid detection of Orthoebolavirus zairense and Orthoebolavirus sudanense

Filoviruses comprise a family of single-stranded, negative-sense RNA viruses with a significant impact on human health. Given the risk for disease outbreaks, as highlighted by the recent outbreaks across Africa, there is an unmet need for flexible diagnostic technologies that can be deployed in resource-limited settings. Herein, we highlight the use of plasmonic-fluor lateral flow assays (PF-LFA) for the rapid, quantitative detection of an Ebolavirus-secreted glycoprotein, a marker for infection. Plasmonic fluors are a class of ultrabright reporter molecules that combine engineered nanorods with conventional fluorophores, resulting in improved analytical sensitivity. We have developed a PF-LFA fo

Rapid detection of an Ebola biomarker with optical microring resonators

Ebola virus (EBOV) is a highly infectious pathogen, with a case mortality rate as high as 89%. Rapid therapeutic treatments and supportive measures can drastically improve patient outcome; however, the symptoms of EBOV disease (EVD) lack specificity from other endemic diseases. Given the high mortality and significant symptom overlap, there is a critical need for sensitive, rapid diagnostics for EVD. Facile diagnosis of EVD remains a challenge. Here, we describe a rapid and sensitive diagnostic for EVD through microring resonator sensors in conjunction with a unique biomarker of EBOV infection, soluble glycoprotein (sGP). Microring resonator sensors detected sGP in under 40 min with a limit of detection (LOD) as low as 1.00 ng/mL in serum. Furthermore, we validated our assay with the detection of sGP in serum from EBOV-infected non-human primates. Our results demonstrate the utility of a high-sensitivity diagnostic platform for detection of sGP for diagnosis of EVD

Detection of biomarkers for filoviral infection with a silicon photonic resonator platform

This protocol describes the use of silicon photonic microring resonator sensors for detection of Ebola virus (EBOV) and Sudan virus (SUDV) soluble glycoprotein (sGP). This protocol encompasses biosensor functionalization of silicon microring resonator chips, detection of protein biomarkers in sera, preparing calibration standards for analytical validation, and quantification of the results from these experiments. This protocol is readily adaptable toward other analytes, including cytokines, chemokines, nucleic acids, and viruses. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Qavi et al. (2022)

The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill

Atmospheric predictability revisited

This article examines the potential to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) by estimating upper and lower bounds on predictability by re-visiting the original study of Lorenz (1982) but applied to the most recent version of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast system, for both the deterministic and ensemble prediction systems (EPS). These bounds are contrasted with an older version of the same NWP system to see how they have changed with improvements to the NWP system. The computations were performed for the earlier seasons of DJF 1985/1986 and JJA 1986 and the later seasons of DJF 2010/2011 and JJA 2011 using the 500-hPa geopotential height field. Results indicate that for this field, we may be approaching the limit of deterministic forecasting so that further improvements might only be obtained by improving the initial state. The results also show that predictability calculations with earlier versions of the model may overestimate potential forecast skill, which may be due to insufficient internal variability in the model and because recent versions of the model are more realistic in representing the true atmospheric evolution. The same methodology is applied to the EPS to calculate upper and lower bounds of predictability of the ensemble mean forecast in order to explore how ensemble forecasting could extend the limits of the deterministic forecast. The results show that there is a large potential to improve the ensemble predictions, but for the increased predictability of the ensemble mean, there will be a trade-off in information as the forecasts will become increasingly smoothed with time. From around the 10-d forecast time, the ensemble mean begins to converge towards climatology. Until this point, the ensemble mean is able to predict the main features of the large-scale flow accurately and with high consistency from one forecast cycle to the next. By the 15-d forecast time, the ensemble mean has lost information with the anomaly of the flow strongly smoothed out. In contrast, the control forecast is much less consistent from run to run, but provides more detailed (unsmoothed) but less useful information

Liquiñe-Ofqui’s fast slipping intra-volcanic arc crustal faulting above the subducted Chile Ridge

The southernmost portion of the Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone (LOFZ) lies within the proposed slab window which formed due to oblique subduction of the Chile Ridge in Patagonia. Mapping of paleo-surface ruptures, offsets, and lithological separations along the master fault allowed us to constrain geologic slip rates for the first time with dextral rates of 11.6–24.6 mm/year (Quaternary) and 3.6–18.9 mm/year (Late-Cenozoic) respectively. We had trouble mapping the LOFZ in one local because of a partially collapsed and previously undiscovered volcanic complex, Volcan Mate Grande (VMG: 1,280 m high and thus Vesuvius-sized) that grew in a caldera also offset along the LOFZ and has distinct geochemistry from adjacent stratovolcanoes. Besides the clear seismic and volcanic hazard implications, the structural connection along the main trace of the fast slipping LOFZ and geochemistry of VMG provides evidence for the slab window and insight into interplay between fast-slipping crustal intra-arc crustal faults and volcanoes

Increased reports of severe myocarditis associated with enterovirus infection in neonates, United Kingdom, 27 June 2022 to 26 April 2023

Enteroviruses are a common cause of seasonal childhood infections. The vast majority of enterovirus infections are mild and self-limiting, although neonates can sometimes develop severe disease. Myocarditis is a rare complication of enterovirus infection. Between June 2022 and April 2023, twenty cases of severe neonatal enteroviral myocarditis caused by coxsackie B viruses were reported in the United Kingdom. Sixteen required critical care support and two died. Enterovirus PCR on whole blood was the most sensitive diagnostic test. We describe the initial public health investigation into this cluster and aim to raise awareness among paediatricians, laboratories and public health specialists