Developing a Logistics Risk Assessment Tool

Economies around the world have thrived in the wake of the development and keen understanding of effective supply chain management practices. As a result, organizations have become more dependent on other organizations to move their products and services to completion due to complex sourcing and shipping arrangements that have precipitated from the formation of sophisticated supply chains. A supply chain is in general a flow of products or services. When this flow is disrupted or halted, disastrous consequences can ensue. In the worst cases, such as with a disaster relief organization like the American Red Cross, disruptions in supply chains could mean the loss of human life. Although more supply chain managers recognize that disruptions along supply chains can cause millions of dollars in lost revenue and large losses of goodwill, very few know exactly what risks their organizations are exposed to. The aim of this research is to better understand what risks are present along each point in the supply chain – both internally and externally – and to develop a way to assess those risks. Furthermore, this research aims to understand how to mitigate these risks for organizations. Ultimately, the goal is to employ these findings in the form of a web tool that surveys users about their supply chain, assesses their current levels of risk, and suggests ways to mitigate this risk

The Marginal Enumeration Bayesian Cramer-Rao Bound for Jump Markov Systems

A marginal version of the enumeration Bayesian Cramer-Rao Bound (EBCRB) for jump Markov systems is proposed. It is shown that the proposed bound is at least as tight as EBCRB and the improvement stems from better handling of the nonlinearities. The new bound is illustrated to yield tighter results than BCRB and EBCRB on a benchmark example

Financially incentivized knowledge assessments to improve provider compliance with treatment guidelines: a cluster-randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing access to health care, under-5 mortality remains high in many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. Interventions to improve quality of care have mostly focused on additional training for medical staff, but generally shown little impact. We will assess the impact of financially incentivized quarterly provider knowledge assessment on compliance with Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) protocols in Congo, DRC. METHODS: Out of a total of 1738 facilities currently receiving results-based financing under an ongoing health financing program, 110 facilities were chosen for this study. All health care workers providing outpatient services to children under age 5 in these facilities will be included in the study. Facilities were randomized with equal probability to control and treatment. Treatment facilities will receive quarterly medical staff knowledge assessments using interactive vignettes. Performance on these vignettes will be rewarded through financial bonus payments to facilities. A baseline survey of health worker knowledge was conducted in 2018. An endline assessment is scheduled to start in the second half of 2021. The primary outcome of interest is health worker compliance with Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines. Compliance will be verified through direct observation of medical staff-patient interactions. DISCUSSION: This is to our knowledge the first trial assessing whether linking health financing to health care worker performance on knowledge assessments can increase compliance with under-5 case management protocols. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04634019 . Registered on November 18, 2020

The Sub-Pulmonary Conus And The Arterial Anastomosis As Important Sites Of Cardiovascular Regulation In The Crocodile Crocodylus porosus

We present evidence to support the hypothesis that the arterial anastomosis and the cogteeth-like valves located in the sub-pulmonary conus in the right ventricle are important sites of cardiovascular regulation in the crocodile Crocodylus porosus. The influence of the arterial anastomosis on the development of the 'foramen spike' in the left aortic pressure trace, which occurs at the onset of diastole when the pressures in the right and left aortas become equal, and on gastrointestinal blood flow was examined in unanaesthetised C. porosus using blood vessel occluders. Measurements of blood flow in the arterial anastomosis showed that, during non-shunting conditions, there was a substantial systolic blood flow from the right aorta into the coeliac artery. The total coeliac artery blood flow was the sum of the anastomosis flow from the right aorta plus the left aortic flow originating from the right aorta via the foramen of Panizza during diastole. During mechanically induced pulmonary-to-systemic shunting, the anastomosis blood flow was reversed, with blood flowing from the left to the right aorta. The magnitude of the 'foramen spike' was directly related to the vascular resistance in the anastomosis. When vascular resistance in the anastomosis was high, such as during mechanical occlusion, there was an increase in the right aortic to left aortic pressure gradient during systole which resulted in an increase the foramen spike amplitude. Recordings of right intraventricular pressure in unanaesthetised C. porosus showed spontaneous changes in right intracardiac systolic pressure. The pressure recordings were biphasic, with the second contraction (isometric) being highly variable in size, indicating the control of pulmonary outflow resistance, possibly via the 'cogteeth valves' located in the sub-pulmonary conus in the right ventricle

Mercury evasion from a boreal peatland determined with advanced REA and chamber methods

Gasförmiges, elementares Quecksilber (Hg^0) ist die dominierende Form von Hg in der Atmosphäre und steht in ständigem Austausch mit Böden und Wasseroberflächen. In borealen Mooren ist dieser Land-Atmosphären-Austausch von Hg^0 von besonderer Relevanz. - in solch anoxischen Ökosystem bildet sich das hochtoxische Methylquecksilber (MeHg) - , da sich verändernde Depositions- und Emissionsraten den Hg-Pool im Boden beeinflussen. Um natürliche influssfaktoren zu bestimmen, welche die Reduktion von Hg(II) zu Hg^0 und damit die Ausgasung fördern, haben wir dynamische Durchflusskammern (DFCs) verwendet. Der Effekt von erhöhter Schwefel- und Stickstoffdeposition sowie veränderten Temperatur- und Feuchtebedingungen auf den Hg^0-Fluss wurden untersucht und typische Flussraten für unser Untersuchungsgebiet quantifiziert. Das boreale Moor liegt etwa 10 Kilometer westlich von Vindeln, in der Provinz Västerbotten in Schweden. Um den ganzjährigen In- und Output von Hg^0 über die Atmosphäre zu quantifizieren, entwickelten wir ein neues Relaxed Eddy Accumulation (REA) System mit zwei Lufteinlässen, nur einem Detektor und einem ausgefeilten, automatischen Kalibrationsmodul. Während den Hg-Messungen wurden meteorologische Parameter, im Wasser gelöstes Hg^0(DGM) und die Gesamtdeposition von Hg gemessen. Letztere während der Vegetationsperiode 2014. Das Gesamt-Hg im Boden und im Abflussbereich des Moores wurde vorgängig bestimmt und trägt zum besseren Verständnis des Hg-Kreislaufs bei. Hohe Schwefeldepositionen, wie sie in den 80er-Jahren in Schweden üblich waren, führten zu einer Hemmung von Hg-Emissionen. Dies ist mit einer initialen Ausgasung von Hg zu Beginn des Versuches oder mit dem Binden von Hg an Schwefelgruppen und anschliessendem Abtransport im Oberflächenwasser zu erklären. DFC-Messungen im Juli 2014 wurden während Strahlungstagen durchgeführt und zeigten einen deutlichen Tagesgang und eine starke lineare Abhängigkeit von der Temperatur innerhalb und ausserhalb der Kammern. Erste Auswertungen der REA-Daten zeigten eine Spannweite der Monatsmittelwerte zwischen -6 ng m^-2 h^-1 im November 2013 und 15 ng m^-2 h^-1 im Juni 2014. Hg^0-Emissionen dominierten während des Sommers und Hg^0-Deposition von Spätherbst bis Frühling. Als erste Forschungsgruppe gelang es uns, den Hg^0-Fluss über einem borealen Moor während eines ganzen Jahres zu messen und dabei REA erfolgreich anzuwenden. Des Weiteren konnten wir mit DFC-Messungen Faktoren identifizieren, welche Hg^0-Emissionen hemmen oder begünstigen. Die Ausgasung von Hg^0 in die Atmosphäre scheint die Menge im Abfluss deutlich zu übersteigen und deutet darauf hin, dass das boreale Moor heute nicht nur eine Quelle für MeHg, sondern auch für Gesamt-Hg ist

Accuracy and simultaneous selection gains for grain yield and earliness in tropical maize lines

Winter maize is sown between January and March in Brazil. Although this maize is sown in unfavorable weather conditions, many farmers are successful, and winter maize has become an important crop. The sowing of early hybrids is a strategy to reduce the effects of stress on yield; however, low yields may result from earliness. Thus, the objectives in this study were to investigate tropical maize lines for the possibility of simultaneous selection for yield and earliness and to compare the differences among the simultaneous selection methods. Therefore, 64 lines were evaluated in two locations for grain yield, days to female flowering and grain moisture at harvest. The genotypic values for these traits were predicted using Restricted Maximum Likelihood/Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (REML/BLUP) single-trait (univariate) and multi-trait (multivariate) methods. Using three simultaneous selection methods (i.e., Additive index, Mulamba-Mock index and Independent culling levels) with two methods of prediction for genotypic values (single-trait and multi-trait), six simultaneous selection scenarios were considered and then compared for selection gains and accuracy. Because of the low correlation between these traits, the pre- dictions of genotypic values were similar for single-trait and multi-trait methods. Thus, single-trait analysis should be prioritized because of its practicality. The Additive index obtained the highest selection gain for grain yield and simultaneously achieved good gains for days to female flowering and grain moisture at harvest. Therefore, the Additive index, using the single-trait prediction method, is the best simultaneous selection method for yield and earliness in tropical maize lines

Seleção genômica ampla e novos métodos de melhoramento do milho.

Os objetivos deste trabalho foram verificar a acurácia do método da Seleção Genômica Ampla (GWS) no melhoramento de milho nas condições de estresse nutricional e propor novos métodos de melhoramento baseados em GWS. Foram estimados os dois componentes da eficiência no uso de nitrogênio e de fósforo (eficiência de absorção e de utilização) em 41 combinações híbridas, em dois experimentos, sob baixa e alta disponibilidades de N e P. Para a genotipagem da população de estimação, foram utilizados 80 marcadores microssatélites. As estimativas dos parâmetros genéticos foram obtidas via REML/BLUP, e a predição dos valores genéticos genômicos, via regressão aleatória (Random Regression - RR) aplicada à seleção genômica ampla (RR-BLUP/GWS). Para os caracteres em que a GWS apresentou altos valores de acurácia, essa foi comparada com os métodos de Seleção Recorrente Intra e Interpopulacional. Com o uso da GWS houve aumento significativo na acurácia seletiva e nos ganhos genéticos por unidade de tempo

Effects of RAF inhibitors on PI3K/AKT signalling depend on mutational status of the RAS/RAF signalling axis

Targeted therapies within the RAS/RAF/MEK/ERK signalling axis become increasingly popular, yet cross-talk and feedbacks in the signalling network lead to unexpected effects. Here we look systematically into how inhibiting RAF and MEK with clinically relevant inhibitors result in changes in PI3K/AKT activation. We measure the signalling response using a bead-based ELISA, and use a panel of three cell lines, and isogenic cell lines that express mutant forms of the oncogenes KRAS and BRAF to interrogate the effects of the MEK and RAF inhibitors on signalling. We find that treatment with the RAF inhibitors have opposing effects on AKT phosphorylation depending on the mutational status of two important oncogenes, KRAS and BRAF. If these two genes are in wildtype configuration, RAF inhibitors reduce AKT phosphorylation. In contrast, if BRAF or KRAS are mutant, RAF inhibitors will leave AKT phosphorylation unaffected or lead to an increase of AKT phosphorylation. Down-regulation of phospho-AKT by RAF inhibitors also extends to downstream transcription factors, and correlates with apoptosis induction. Our results show that oncogenes rewire signalling such that targeted therapies can have opposing effects on parallel pathways, which depend on the mutational status of the cell