The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations

This paper analyses the impact of the monetary regime change from the Bundesbank to the ECB in 1999 on inflation expectations. In the theoretical part, the Barro-Gordon model is used to derive the potential effect of a new central bank on inflation, inflation expectations and forecast errors. The econometric investigation is based on a flexible specification of expectation formation which allows both for rational and adaptive elements. Data on inflation expectations originate from the ZEW Financial Market Survey. The results indicate that the monetary regime change did not have a strong and lasting impact on the formation of inflation expectations and that the anti-inflationary credibility of both central banks is not perceived to differ significantly. However, the analysis also reveals that the years immediately before the start of EMU were characterised by a relatively large degree of uncertainty: in this time, market participants resorted to backward-looking expectations even more than usually. This is a plausible result because of the intitial uncertainty about the new central bank?s characteristics. Once in charge of monetary policy the ECB was quickly successful to restore certainty about its true Bundesbank-like type. --inflation expectations,credibility,ZEW Financial market survey,ECB,EMU,Carlson-Parkin

Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers' Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording

In this analysis, the informational content of central bank rhetoric is assessed based on the experience with the ECB since 1999. Among the ECB?s communication channels we focus on the monthly press conferences. Based on a counting of certain signal words we construct a wording indicator reflecting the ?hawkishness? of monetary rhetorics. For the construction, we develop an objective algorithm representing a learning process of ECB observers. We then integrate this indicator into a standard Taylor type ordered probit model for the explanation of the interest rate. We show that the wording indicator can improve the model?s fit when added to the standard explanatory variables. However, a model based solely on this indicator performs worse than the baseline. The results are confirmed by out of sample analysis where the determination of the wording indicators? weights is based on the early ECB period which, subsequently, is excluded from the tests. Our conclusion is that linguistic analysis can improve but not substitute more rigorous forecasting techniques based on hard economic data. --Taylor rule,wording,central bank communication

Self-Organized Synchronization and Voltage Stability in Networks of Synchronous Machines

The integration of renewable energy sources in the course of the energy transition is accompanied by grid decentralization and fluctuating power feed-in characteristics. This raises new challenges for power system stability and design. We intend to investigate power system stability from the viewpoint of self-organized synchronization aspects. In this approach, the power grid is represented by a network of synchronous machines. We supplement the classical Kuramoto-like network model, which assumes constant voltages, with dynamical voltage equations, and thus obtain an extended version, that incorporates the coupled categories voltage stability and rotor angle synchronization. We compare disturbance scenarios in small systems simulated on the basis of both classical and extended model and we discuss resultant implications and possible applications to complex modern power grids.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figure

Shortest Distances as Enumeration Problem

We investigate the single source shortest distance (SSSD) and all pairs shortest distance (APSD) problems as enumeration problems (on unweighted and integer weighted graphs), meaning that the elements $(u, v, d(u, v))$ -- where $u$ and $v$ are vertices with shortest distance $d(u, v)$ -- are produced and listed one by one without repetition. The performance is measured in the RAM model of computation with respect to preprocessing time and delay, i.e., the maximum time that elapses between two consecutive outputs. This point of view reveals that specific types of output (e.g., excluding the non-reachable pairs $(u, v, \infty)$, or excluding the self-distances $(u, u, 0)$) and the order of enumeration (e.g., sorted by distance, sorted row-wise with respect to the distance matrix) have a huge impact on the complexity of APSD while they appear to have no effect on SSSD. In particular, we show for APSD that enumeration without output restrictions is possible with delay in the order of the average degree. Excluding non-reachable pairs, or requesting the output to be sorted by distance, increases this delay to the order of the maximum degree. Further, for weighted graphs, a delay in the order of the average degree is also not possible without preprocessing or considering self-distances as output. In contrast, for SSSD we find that a delay in the order of the maximum degree without preprocessing is attainable and unavoidable for any of these requirements.Comment: Updated version adds the study of space complexit

Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers' Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording

In this analysis, the informational content of central bank rhetoric is assessed based on the experience with the ECB since 1999. Among the ECB's communication channels we focus on the monthly press conferences. Based on a counting of certain signal words we construct a wording indicator reflecting the "hawkishness" of monetary rhetorics. For the construction, we develop an objective algorithm representing a learning process of ECB observers. We then integrate this indicator into a standard Taylor type ordered probit model for the explanation of the interest rate. We show that the wording indicator can improve the model's fit when added to the standard explanatory variables. However, a model based solely on this indicator performs worse than the baseline. The results are confirmed by out of sample analysis where the determination of the wording indicators' weights is based on the early ECB period which, subsequently, is excluded from the tests. Our conclusion is that linguistic analysis can improve but not substitute more rigorous forecasting techniques based on hard economic data

The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations

This paper analyses the impact of the monetary regime change from the Bundesbank to the ECB in 1999 on inflation expectations. In the theoretical part, the Barro-Gordon model is used to derive the potential effect of a new central bank on inflation, inflation expectations and forecast errors. The econometric investigation is based on a flexible specification of expectation formation which allows both for rational and adaptive elements. Data on inflation expectations originate from the ZEW Financial Market Survey. The results indicate that the monetary regime change did not have a strong and lasting impact on the formation of inflation expectations and that the anti-inflationary credibility of both central banks is not perceived to differ significantly. However, the analysis also reveals that the years immediately before the start of EMU were characterised by a relatively large degree of uncertainty: in this time, market participants resorted to backward-looking expectations even more than usually. This is a plausible result because of the intitial uncertainty about the new central bank's characteristics. Once in charge of monetary policy the ECB was quickly successful to restore certainty about its true Bundesbank-like type

Chancen und Risiken der Bibliothek 2.0: Vom Bestandsnutzer zum Bestandsmitgestalter

With web 2.0 libraries will gain new operational structures which could induce new forms of the classic library functions collection, indexing and distribution of information. The importance of these developments is shown through various web 2.0 platforms that reached millions of users only within months. First library 2.0 services have been created. These examples of web 2.0 developments will be explained in this article by means of the electronic publishing pyramid

Signal transduction around thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) in atopic asthma

Thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), a novel interleukin-7-like cytokine, triggers dendritic cell-mediated inflammatory responses ultimately executed by T helper cells of the Th2 subtype. TSLP emerged as a central player in the development of allergic symptoms, especially in the airways, and is a prime regulatory cytokine at the interface of virus- or antigen-exposed epithelial cells and dendritic cells (DCs). DCs activated by epithelium-derived TSLP can promote naïve CD4+ T cells to adopt a Th2 phenotype, which in turn recruite eosinophilic and basophilic granulocytes as well as mast cells into the airway mucosa. These different cells secrete inflammatory cytokines and chemokines operative in inducing an allergic inflammation and atopic asthma. TSLP is, thus, involved in the control of both an innate and an adaptive immune response. Since TSLP links contact of allergen with the airway epithelium to the onset and maintainance of the asthmatic syndrome, defining the signal transduction underlying TSLP expression and function is of profound interest for a better understandimg of the disease and for the development of new therapeutics