Modeling Patient Decision-Making: The Role of Base-Rate and Anecdotal Information

Guidelines for managing patient–physician relationships often stem from either paternalistic or shared decision-making perspectives. Despite a number of advantages shown for the shared decision-making model, questions remain as to whether lay people make the most optimal decisions about their health care. This study explored the influence of anecdotal and base-rate information on health-care decisions. Three hundred and seventeen undergraduates read two vignettes describing a fictitious disease, followed by a description of two potential treatment protocols. The comparison treatment was 50% effective and accompanied by an anecdote that described a patient whose treatment resulted in an ambiguous outcome. A second treatment was presented as 30, 50, 70, or 90% effective, and accompanied by an anecdote that described a patient whose treatment resulted in a positive, ambiguous, or negative outcome. Subjects weighted anecdotal information more heavily than base-rate, or statistical, information when the anecdotal information was clearly positive or negative. Subjects presented with ambiguous anecdotal information weighed base-rate information most heavily. Implications for enhancing patient decision-making are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44856/1/10880_2004_Article_489105.pd

The incidence and clinical burden of respiratory syncytial virus disease identified through hospital outpatient presentations in Kenyan children

There is little information that describe the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated disease in the tropical African outpatient setting. Methods We studied a systematic sample of children aged <5 years presenting to a rural district hospital in Kenya with acute respiratory infection (ARI) between May 2002 and April 2004. We collected clinical data and screened nasal wash samples for RSV antigen by immunofluorescence. We used a linked demographic surveillance system to estimate disease incidence. Results Among 2143 children tested, 166 (8%) were RSV positive (6% among children with upper respiratory tract infection and 12% among children with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). RSV was more likely in LRTI than URTI (p<0.001). 51% of RSV cases were aged 1 year or over. RSV cases represented 3.4% of hospital outpatient presentations. Relative to RSV negative cases, RSV positive cases were more likely to have crackles (RR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.34–1.97), nasal flaring (RR = 2.66; 95% CI 1.40–5.04), in-drawing (RR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.47–3.40), fast breathing for age (RR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.03–1.75) and fever (RR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.33–1.80). The estimated incidence of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTI, per 100,000 child years, among those aged <5 years was 767 and 283, respectively. Conclusion The burden of childhood RSV-associated URTI and LRTI presenting to outpatients in this setting is considerable. The clinical features of cases associated with an RSV infection were more severe than cases without an RSV diagnosis

Twelve years' detection of respiratory viruses by immunofluorescence in hospitalised children: impact of the introduction of a new respiratory picornavirus assay

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Direct immunofluorescence assays (DFA) are a rapid and inexpensive method for the detection of respiratory viruses and may therefore be used for surveillance. Few epidemiological studies have been published based solely on DFA and none included respiratory picornaviruses and human metapneumovirus (hMPV). We wished to evaluate the use of DFA for epidemiological studies with a long-term observation of respiratory viruses that includes both respiratory picornaviruses and hMPV.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Since 1998 all children hospitalized with respiratory illness at the University Hospital Bern have been screened with DFA for common respiratory viruses including adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B, and parainfluenza virus 1-3. In 2006 assays for respiratory picornaviruses and hMPV were added. Here we describe the epidemiological pattern for these respiratory viruses detected by DFA in 10'629 nasopharyngeal aspirates collected from 8'285 patients during a 12-year period (1998-2010).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Addition of assays for respiratory picornaviruses and hMPV raised the proportion of positive DFA results from 35% to 58% (p < 0.0001). Respiratory picornaviruses were the most common viruses detected among patients ≥1 year old. The seasonal patterns and age distribution for the studied viruses agreed well with those reported in the literature. In 2010, an hMPV epidemic of unexpected size was observed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>DFA is a valid, rapid, flexible and inexpensive method. The addition of assays for respiratory picornaviruses and hMPV broadens its range of viral detection. DFA is, even in the "PCR era", a particularly adapted method for the long term surveillance of respiratory viruses in a pediatric population.</p

Effects of Reynolds Number and Flapping Kinematics on Hovering Aerodynamics

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/76695/1/AIAA-2007-129-236.pd

Detection of viral respiratory pathogens in mild and severe acute respiratory infections in Singapore.

To investigate the performance of laboratory methods and clinical case definitions in detecting the viral pathogens for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) from a prospective community cohort and hospital inpatients, nasopharyngeal swabs from cohort members reporting ARIs (community-ARI) and inpatients admitted with ARIs (inpatient-ARI) were tested by Singleplex Real Time-Polymerase Chain Reaction (SRT-PCR), multiplex RT-PCR (MRT-PCR) and pathogen-chip system (PathChip) between April 2012 and December 2013. Community-ARI and inpatient-ARI was also combined with mild and severe cases of influenza from a historical prospective study as mild-ARI and severe-ARI respectively to evaluate the performance of clinical case definitions. We analysed 130 community-ARI and 140 inpatient-ARI episodes (5 inpatient-ARI excluded because multiple pathogens were detected), involving 138 and 207 samples respectively. Detection by PCR declined with days post-onset for influenza virus; decrease was faster for community-ARI than for inpatient-ARI. No such patterns were observed for non-influenza respiratory virus infections. PathChip added substantially to viruses detected for community-ARI only. Clinical case definitions discriminated influenza from other mild-ARI but performed poorly for severe-ARI and for older participants. Rational strategies for diagnosis and surveillance of influenza and other respiratory virus must acknowledge the differences between ARIs presenting in community and hospital settings

Procalcitonin levels in acute exacerbation of COPD admitted in ICU: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Antibiotics are recommended for severe acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) admitted to intensive care units (ICU). Serum procalcitonin (PCT) could be a useful tool for selecting patients with a lower probability of developing bacterial infection, but its measurement has not been investigated in this population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a single center prospective cohort study in consecutive COPD patients admitted to the ICU for AECOPD between September 2005 and September 2006. Sputum samples or tracheal aspirates were tested for the presence of bacteria and viruses. PCT levels were measured at the time of admittance, six hours, and 24 hours using a sensitive immunoassay.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirty nine AECOPD patients were included, 31 of which (79%) required a ventilator support at admission. The median [25%–75% interquartile range] PCT level, assessed in 35/39 patients, was: 0.096 μg/L [IQR, 0.065 to 0.178] at the time of admission, 0.113 μg/L [IQR, 0.074 to 0.548] at six hours, and 0.137 μg/L [IQR, 0.088 to 0.252] at 24 hours. The highest PCT (PCTmax) levels were less than 0.1 μg/L in 14/35 (40%) patients and more than 0.25 μg/L in 10/35 (29%) patients, suggesting low and high probability of bacterial infection, respectively. Five species of bacteria and nine species of viruses were detected in 12/39 (31%) patients. Among the four patients positive for <it>Pseudomonas aeruginosa</it>, one had a PCTmax less than 0.25 μg/L and three had a PCTmax less than 0.1 μg/L. The one patient positive for <it>Haemophilus influenzae </it>had a PCTmax more than 0.25 μg/L. The presence or absence of viruses did not influence PCT at time of admission (0.068 vs 0.098 μg/L respectively, <it>P </it>= 0.80).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The likelihood of bacterial infection is low among COPD patients admitted to ICU for AECOPD (40% with PCT < 0.1 μg/L) suggesting a possible inappropriate use of antibiotics. Further studies are necessary to assess the impact of a procalcitonin-based therapeutic strategy in critically ill COPD patients.</p

Detection of multiple respiratory pathogens during primary respiratory infection: nasal swab versus nasopharyngeal aspirate using real-time polymerase chain reaction

In this study, we present the multiple detection of respiratory viruses in infants during primary respiratory illness, investigate the sensitivity of nasal swabs and nasopharyngeal aspirates, and assess whether patient characteristics and viral load played a role in the sensitivity. Healthy infants were included at signs of first respiratory tract infection. Paired nasopharyngeal aspirates and nasal swabs were collected. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was carried out for 11 respiratory pathogens. Paired nasopharyngeal aspirates and nasal swabs were collected in 98 infants. Rhinovirus (n = 67) and respiratory syncytial virus (n = 39) were the most frequently detected. Co-infection occurred in 48% (n = 45) of the infants. The sensitivity of the nasal swab was lower than the nasopharyngeal aspirate, in particular, for respiratory syncytial virus (51% vs. 100%) and rhinovirus (75% vs. 97%). The sensitivity of the nasal swab was strongly determined by the cycle threshold (CT) value (p < 0.001). The sensitivity of the swab for respiratory syncytial virus, but not rhinovirus, was 100% in children with severe symptoms (score ≥11). It is concluded that, for community-based studies and surveillance purposes, the nasal swab can be used, though the sensitivity is lower than the aspirate, in particular, for the detection of mild cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection

Validation of Statistical Models for Estimating Hospitalization Associated with Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

BACKGROUND: Reliable estimates of disease burden associated with respiratory viruses are keys to deployment of preventive strategies such as vaccination and resource allocation. Such estimates are particularly needed in tropical and subtropical regions where some methods commonly used in temperate regions are not applicable. While a number of alternative approaches to assess the influenza associated disease burden have been recently reported, none of these models have been validated with virologically confirmed data. Even fewer methods have been developed for other common respiratory viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza and adenovirus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We had recently conducted a prospective population-based study of virologically confirmed hospitalization for acute respiratory illnesses in persons <18 years residing in Hong Kong Island. Here we used this dataset to validate two commonly used models for estimation of influenza disease burden, namely the rate difference model and Poisson regression model, and also explored the applicability of these models to estimate the disease burden of other respiratory viruses. The Poisson regression models with different link functions all yielded estimates well correlated with the virologically confirmed influenza associated hospitalization, especially in children older than two years. The disease burden estimates for RSV, parainfluenza and adenovirus were less reliable with wide confidence intervals. The rate difference model was not applicable to RSV, parainfluenza and adenovirus and grossly underestimated the true burden of influenza associated hospitalization. CONCLUSION: The Poisson regression model generally produced satisfactory estimates in calculating the disease burden of respiratory viruses in a subtropical region such as Hong Kong