Probing Current Sheet Instabilities from Flare Ribbon Dynamics

The presence of current sheet instabilities, such as the tearing mode instability, are needed to account for the observed rate of energy release in solar flares. Insights into these current sheet dynamics can be revealed by the behavior of flare ribbon substructure, as magnetic reconnection accelerates particles down newly reconnected field lines into the chromosphere to mark the flare footpoints. Behavior in the ribbons can therefore be used to probe processes occurring in the current sheet. In this study, we use high-cadence (1.7 s) IRIS Slit Jaw Imager observations to probe for the growth and evolution of key spatial scales along the flare ribbons—resulting from dynamics across the current sheet of a small solar flare on 2016 December 6. Combining analyses of spatial scale growth with Si iv nonthermal velocities, we piece together a timeline of flare onset for this confined event, and provide evidence of the tearing mode instability triggering a cascade and inverse cascade toward a power spectrum consistent with plasma turbulence

Conceptualising and mapping coupled estuary, coast and inner shelf sediment systems

Whilst understanding and predicting the effects of coastal change are primarily modelling problems, it is essential that we have appropriate conceptual frameworks for (1) the formalisation of existing knowledge; (2) the formulation of relevant scientific questions and management issues; (3) the implementation and deployment of predictive models; and (4) meaningful engagement involvement of stakeholders. Important progress continues to be made on the modelling front, but our conceptual frameworks have not evolved at a similar pace. Accordingly, this paper presents a new approach that re-engages with formal systems analysis and provides a mesoscale geomorphological context within which the coastal management challenges of the 21st century can be more effectively addressed. Coastal and Estuarine System Mapping (CESM) is founded on an ontology of landforms and human interventions that is partly inspired by the coastal tract concept and its temporal hierarchy of sediment sharing systems, but places greater emphasis on a hierarchy of spatial scales. This extends from coastal regions, through landform complexes, to landforms, the morphological adjustment of which is constrained by diverse forms of human intervention. Crucially, CESM integrates open coastal environments with estuaries and relevant portions of the inner shelf that have previously been treated separately. In contrast to the nesting of littoral cells that has hitherto framed shoreline management planning, CESM charts a complex web of interactions, of which a sub-set of mass transfer pathways defines the sediment budget, and a multitude of human interventions constrains natural landform behaviour. Conducted within a geospatial framework, CESM constitutes a form of knowledge formalisation in which disparate sources of information (published research, imagery, mapping, raw data etc.) are generalised into usable knowledge. The resulting system maps provide a framework for the development and application of predictive models and a repository for the outputs they generate (not least, flux estimates for the major sediment system pathways). They also permit comparative analyses of the relative abundance of landforms and the multi-scale interactions between them. Finally, they articulate scientific understanding of the structure and function of complex geomorphological systems in a way that is transparent and accessible to diverse stakeholder audiences. As our models of mesoscale landform evolution increase in sophistication, CESM provides a platform for a more participatory approach to their application to coastal and estuarine management

Jupiter’s equatorial X-ray emissions over two solar cycles

Jupiter’s disk is bright in X-rays as H2 molecules in the atmosphere are very effective at scattering solar X-rays. K-shell fluorescence from carbon atoms in atmospheric methane is thought to also provide a minor contribution. XMM-Newton has now observed Jupiter over a span of nearly two solar cycles from 2003 to 2021, offering the opportunity to determine whether Jupiter’s disk emissions are driven by solar activity or not. We compare the count rates of X-rays of energies 0.2–10.0 keV, 0.2–2.0 keV, 2.1–5.0 keV, and 5.1–10.0 keV from the planet’s equatorial region, with the sunspot number and F10.7 adjusted solar radio flux. The respective Pearson’s Correlation Coefficients for both are 0.88/0.84, 0.86/0.83, 0.40/0.34 and 0.29/0.22 for each energy demonstrating that the low energy X-ray disk emissions are indeed controlled by the Sun’s activity. This relationship is less clear for the higher energy emissions, raising questions around the source of these emissions

Genomic variations define divergence of water/wildlife-associated Campylobacter jejuni niche specialists from common clonal complexes

Although the major food-borne pathogen Campylobacter jejuni has been isolated from diverse animal, human and environmental sources, our knowledge of genomic diversity in C. jejuni is based exclusively on human or human food-chain-associated isolates. Studies employing multilocus sequence typing have indicated that some clonal complexes are more commonly associated with particular sources. Using comparative genomic hybridization on a collection of 80 isolates representing diverse sources and clonal complexes, we identified a separate clade comprising a group of water/wildlife isolates of C. jejuni with multilocus sequence types uncharacteristic of human food-chain-associated isolates. By genome sequencing one representative of this diverse group (C. jejuni 1336), and a representative of the bank-vole niche specialist ST-3704 (C. jejuni 414), we identified deletions of genomic regions normally carried by human food-chain-associated C. jejuni. Several of the deleted regions included genes implicated in chicken colonization or in virulence. Novel genomic insertions contributing to the accessory genomes of strains 1336 and 414 were identified. Comparative analysis using PCR assays indicated that novel regions were common but not ubiquitous among the water/wildlife group of isolates, indicating further genomic diversity among this group, whereas all ST-3704 isolates carried the same novel accessory regions. While strain 1336 was able to colonize chicks, strain 414 was not, suggesting that regions specifically absent from the genome of strain 414 may play an important role in this common route of Campylobacter infection of humans. We suggest that the genomic divergence observed constitutes evidence of adaptation leading to niche specialization

Assessment and attribution of mangrove forest changes in the indian sundarbans from 2000 to 2020

The Indian Sundarbans, together with Bangladesh, comprise the largest mangrove forest in the world. Reclamation of the mangroves in this region ceased in the 1930s. However, they are still subject to adverse environmental influences, such as sediment starvation due to migration of the main river channels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta over the last few centuries, cyclone landfall, wave action from the Bay of Bengal—changing hydrology due to upstream water diversion—and the pervasive effects of relative sea-level rise. This study builds on earlier work to assess changes from 2000 to 2020 in mangrove extent, genus composition, and mangrove ‘health’ indicators, using various vegetation indices derived from Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery by performing maximum likelihood supervised classification. We show that about 110 km2 of mangroves disappeared within the reserve forest due to erosion, and 81 km2 were gained within the inhabited part of Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve (SBR) through plantation and regeneration. The gains are all outside the contiguous mangroves. However, they partially compensate for the losses of the contiguous mangroves in terms of carbon. Genus composition, analyzed by amalgamating data from published literature and ground-truthing surveys, shows change towards more salt-tolerant genus accompanied by a reduction in the prevalence of freshwater-loving Heiritiera, Nypa, and Sonneratia assemblages. Health indicators, such as the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), show a monotonic trend of deterioration over the last two decades, which is more pronounced in the sea-facing parts of the mangrove forests. An increase in salinity, a temperature rise, and rainfall reduction in the pre-monsoon and the post-monsoon periods appear to have led to such degradation. Collectively, these results show a decline in mangrove area and health, which poses an existential threat to the Indian Sundarbans in the long term, especially under scenarios of climate change and sea-level rise. Given its unique values, the policy process should acknowledge and address these threats

Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems

As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion-accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a model, the modeller can readily assess if critical feedback loops are included

Pseudorehearsal in value function approximation

Catastrophic forgetting is of special importance in reinforcement learning, as the data distribution is generally non-stationary over time. We study and compare several pseudorehearsal approaches for Q-learning with function approximation in a pole balancing task. We have found that pseudorehearsal seems to assist learning even in such very simple problems, given proper initialization of the rehearsal parameters

Integrating Estuarine, Coastal and Inner Shelf Sediment Systems in a Common Conceptual Framework as a Basis for Participatory Shoreline Management

Coastal and estuarine margins are home to an increasing proportion of the global human population and its activities. Within this context, landforms play a critical role in mediating the translation of erosion and flood risk to human receptors in environmental settings that are vulnerable to the likely impacts of climate change. Predicting how coastal and estuarine landforms will evolve in response to changes in sea level and wave climate is thus of considerable importance. This is naturally a modelling problem but previous efforts have often failed to translate generic principles into models that do justice to the place-specific interactions between contemporary processes, antecedent geology, sea level history, historical morphology, engineering interventions and, not least, broader societal concerns. Progress clearly requires better models but, as we argue here, more sophisticated conceptual frameworks are also needed. Accordingly, we outline a new Coastal and Estuarine System Mapping (CESM) approach that captures the configuration of estuarine, coastal and inner shelf landform complexes within a unifying framework that also explicitly resolves the multitude of human interventions that influence shoreline change. An illustrative application to the Suffolk coast of eastern England demonstrates the potential of CESM to encourage a more participatory approach to regional shoreline management and the application of scientific understanding to the challenge of living with human and climate change impacts at the coast