Labour Share Heterogeneity and Fiscal Consolidation Programs

We show that the labour share of income is an important factor affecting the mechanisms behind fiscal consolidation programs, thus requiring consideration when evaluating fiscal multipliers across countries. We calibrate a life-cycle, overlapping generations model to match key characteristics of different European economies and evaluate the recessive impacts of fiscal consolidation programs. We find a positive relationship between the labour share and the impact fiscal multipliers generated by our model. This result directly follows from the higher weight of labour on production and the lower opportunity cost of leisure present in economies with a higher labour share. Following the impact period, the relationship between the labour share and the fiscal multipliers is dependent on the type of fiscal instrument employed in the consolidation

Labour Share Heterogeneity and Fiscal Consolidation Programs

We show that the labour share of income is an important factor affecting the mechanisms behind fiscal consolidation programs, thus requiring consideration when evaluating fiscal multipliers across countries. We calibrate a life-cycle, overlapping generations model to match key characteristics of different European economies and evaluate the recessive impacts of fiscal consolidation programs. We find a positive relationship between the labour share and the impact fiscal multipliers generated by our model. This result directly follows from the higher weight of labour on production and the lower opportunity cost of leisure present in economies with a higher labour share. Following the impact period, the relationship between the labour share and the fiscal multipliers is dependent on the type of fiscal instrument employed in the consolidation

The Infancy of the Esports Industry as a Risk to its Sponsors

In less than 10 years, esports have turned into a global phenomenon with a large following that rivals the audience size of popular established sports. This has resulted in a massive influx of esports sponsors. However, because it appeared and evolved so rapidly, sponsors have no idea of what esports really are nor of what risks they may face. Ergo, this research aimed to determine what issues are being caused by the infancy of the esports industry that is threatening sponsors. Hence, this exploratory research used a convergent-parallel mixed method with equal status. Empirical data was obtained through interviews with 22 experts in esports sponsoring and the application of a survey to 5,638 esports fans. Quantitative data was analysed with SPSS 25 and qualitative data with NVIVO 10. The results showed that the majority of experts considered that the problems associated with the infancy of the esports industry are a risk to esports sponsors and almost all esports fans reckon that the competitive gaming market has infancy-related issues to solve. Esports are not like general sports, so sponsors must holistically study this industry to mitigate the dangers of suffering from the problems of this new and unknown market

Numerical study of the unsteadiness of a ground vortex

Single impinging jets in a crossflow are typical in impingement cooling applications in industry, as well as of the flow beneath a V/STOL aircraft. In this latter application, a primary design consideration is the flow environment induced by the propulsion system during hover with zero or small forward momentum. Ground effect phenomena may occur and change the lift forces on the aircraft, cause re-ingestion of exhaust gases into the engine intake and raise fuselage skin temperatures. An important source of each is the ground vortex which forms far upstream of the impinging jet when the resulting radial wall jet meets a crossflow. Numerical and experimental studies have also been performed in this area. Some were dedicated to the study of the more fundamental configurations: single or multiple impinging jets through a crossflow. The present thesis extends the analysis of (Pandya, Murman, & Sankaran, 2003) to a wider range of velocity ratios, VR, from 0.065 to 0.2. The impact zone of a wall jet with a boundary layer was studied computationally using a Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach with the “k-ε” turbulence model. The computational domain corresponds to complete experimental rig of (Cimbala, Billet, Gaublomme, & Oefelein, 1991) and the measured boundary conditions were used. It was found that the gross features of the flow are well predicted, and the fluctuations of the flowfield around the ground vortex occur in a very small region near the wall where the impact between each flow occurs. The computational results showed a cyclic formation of two small secondary vortexes that appear and disappear cyclically around the separation and maximum penetration points of the ground vortex. This result confirms the observation of (Pandya, Murman, & Sankaran, 2003). The frequency of the “puffing” was found to compare well with the experimental results for VR=0.1, and the structure of the impact zone is similar. First, the wall jet fluid start to penetrate into the boundary layer side until a very small counterclockwise rotating vortex appears. Then it starts to grow blocking the passage of the clockwise rotating fluid of the wall jet, and a new small vortex appears, but now with clockwise vorticity. A particular result was obtained for VR=0.175. The flow exhibits a periodic behaviour, but no secondary vortexes are detected. Nevertheless, in this case the frequency was found to correlate well with the values obtained for VR=0.1, 0.125, and 0.15. For the case of very low velocity crossflow (small VR) the computations exhibit a stationary solution, which is in agreement with previous experimental results. For strong crossflows (large VR) the flow is also stationary, although there is a transition region of some unsteadiness without secondary vortexes present. The present work has shown that for a finite interval of velocity ratios between the impinging jet and the crossflow periodic oscillations of the ground vortex are observed. The results indicate a pattern similar to the “puffing” mechanism described by (Cimbala, Billet, Gaublomme, & Oefelein, 1991)

Labour share heterogeneity and fiscal consolidation programs

We show that the labour share of income is an important factor affecting the mechanisms behind fiscal consolidation programs, thus requiring consideration when evaluating fiscal mul- tipliers across countries. We calibrate a life-cycle, overlapping generations model to match key characteristics of different European economies and evaluate the recessive impacts of fiscal consolidation programs. We find a positive relationship between the labour share and the impact fiscal multipliers generated by our model. This result directly follows from the higher weight of labour on production and the lower opportunity cost of leisure present in economies with a higher labour share. Following the impact period, the relationship between the labour share and the fiscal multipliers is dependant on the type of fiscal instrument employed in the consolidation

Poder preditivo de métodos de Machine Learning com processos de seleção de variáveis : uma aplicação às projeções de produto de países

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Departamento de Economia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Econômicas, 2017.A tese procura aplicar métodos orientados a dados e de aprendizado de máquina para tratar de problemas estruturais de base e dados e fazer previsões com dados novos em ambientes de painéis de países. A questão de estudar e comparar países é muito interessante em economia. A tese faz os exercícios orientados a dados em painéis de países em dois trabalhos. No primeiro trabalho buscamos agrupar países com dinâmicas internas semelhantes com vistas a entender como e porque as dinâmicas internas dos países se diferenciam. Nesse sentido, em um ambiente com poucas observações amostrais, simulamos uma amostra grande o suficiente para conseguirmos estimar sistemas de equações identificados. Estes sistemas de equações visam estudar os canais de transmissão entre produto, investimento, poupança e preços do investimento e da poupança. No segundo trabalho, utilizamos uma abordagem de aprendizado de máquina para desenvolver um procedimento que visa (i) ter um desempenho preditivo com dados novos tão bom quanto os melhores estimadores disponíveis ao mesmo tempo que (ii) possui vantagens interpretativas sobre esses estimadores. Assim, em um primeiro estágio identificamos as variáveis" signals" em um conjunto de preditores e em um segundo estágio escolhemos, por validação cruzada, a melhor especificação para fazer previsão de PIB de países. Para avaliar a eficiência do método, comparamos nosso procedimento com outros procedimentos em igualdade de condições. Os resultados de ambos os trabalhos, apesar de usarem bases de dados e métodos distintos, apontam na mesma direção. O mais relevante para diferenciar um país, ou para antecipar flutuações do produto, é como esse país interage com o mercado internacional. No caso do primeiro trabalho, verificamos que a principal característica que assemelha ou diferencia os países é como ele responde a mudanças no humor dos investidores estrangeiros. No caso do segundo trabalho, a característica mais importante para antecipar informação nova é verificar como o país está absorvendo renda internacional em relação ao que fazia no passado.The thesis has two main objectives. The first is to use data-driven and machine learning methods to address structural database problems. The second is to make predictions with new data in country panel environments. We do the exercises in country panels in two studies. In the first study, we group countries with similar internal dynamics in order to understand how and why countries differ from the structural point of view. To solve the problem of few sample observations, we simulate a large enough sample, based on the observed data, to make our estimates. The systems of structural equations used in this work aim to study the transmission channels between product, investment, savings and interest rates. In the second work, we use a machine learning approach to propose a two-stage estimation procedure that aims to: (i) make predictions with new data as good as the best estimators of machine learning, and (ii) present a better interpretation of the estimates. Thus, in the first stage, we identified the signals variables in a large set of predictors and in the second stage we defined a good specification to forecast countries' GDP. Finally, we confirm the efficiency of the method by comparing our procedure with other procedures on equal terms. The results of the two papers indicate similar lessons. The most important thing to differentiate a country, or to anticipate product fluctuations, is how that country interacts with the international market

A filosofia na UDV: Imaginários do Panenteísmo, Hermetismo e Hermenêutica

Ayahuasca religions such as Santo Daime, Barquinha and União do Vegetal are considered legitimately Brazilian because they syncretize Christian, Spiritist and Afro-descendant elements. We intend to establish a reflection that begins with a udvist cosmology, goes through ethical, epistemological elements and arrives at a philosophy of language with panentheistic foundations of the theology of the UDV, we will try to understand the União do Vegetal as a religious and philosophical system and demonstrate how the caboclo popular wisdom is permeated by ancient hermetic and hermeneutic ideas. Although it was founded by an almost illiterate person, as was the case of Mestre Gabriel, the disciples of this master using the entheogen Ayahuasca are able to develop their memory degrees to remember details from childhood to past lives, that is, unfolding as part of a Christian conception of a form of spiritism.  This knowledge is very similar to that of Pythagoras, Socrates, and even the theological presuppositions of St. Augustine. Therefore, we will try to approach an overview of the ritual aspect of the UDV, as well as a more critical view of the principles that make this society establish itself as the largest Brazilian hoasqueira religion with tens of thousands of adherents. We will use a methodology based on bibliographic reviews, as well as an analysis of an oral history of how the teachings can be preserved and faithful to the doctrine of Mestre Gabriel, which will finally be contextualized in a hermeneutic perspective of Hoasqueira religiosity.Religiões ayahuasqueiras como o Santo Daime, Barquinha e União do Vegetal são consideradas legitimamente brasileiras porque sincretizam elementos cristãos, espíritas e afrodescendentes. Pretendemos estabelecer uma reflexão que se inicia por uma cosmologia udvista, perpassa por elementos éticos, epistemológicos e chegam a uma filosofia da linguagem com fundamentos panenteístas da teologia da UDV, tentaremos compreender a União do Vegetal como um sistema religioso e filosófico e demonstrar como a sabedoria popular cabocla está permeada de ideias herméticas e hermenêuticas antigas. Ainda que tenha sido fundado por uma pessoa quase analfabeta, como foi o caso do Mestre Gabriel, os discípulos deste mestre se utilizam do enteógeno Ayahuasca se mostram capazes de desenvolver seus graus de memória para recordar detalhes desde a infância até as vidas passadas, ou seja, desdobrando-se como parte de uma concepção cristã de uma forma de espiritismo.  Estes são conhecimentos bem semelhante ao que Pitágoras, Sócrates e até mesmo dos pressupostos teológicos de Santo Agostinho. Logo, tentaremos abordar uma visão geral do aspecto ritual da UDV, bem como uma visão mais crítica dos princípios que fazem esta sociedade se estabelecer como a maior religião hoasqueira brasileira com dezenas de milhares de adeptos. Nos utilizaremos de uma metodologia baseada em revisões bibliográficas, bem como de uma análise de uma história oral de como os ensinos conseguem ser preservados e fiéis a doutrina do Mestre Gabriel que por fim, serão contextualizados numa perspectiva hermenêutica da religiosidade hoasqueira