Global Demand for Environmental Goods and Services on the Rise: Good Growth Opportunities for German Suppliers

According to conservative calculations, over $580 billion was spent worldwide on environmental goods and services and renewable energy technologies1 in 2004. So-called "green spending" is set for strong growth in the future on account of the long-term expansion of the global economy and mounting environmental challenges. Significant opportunities for growth and employment in Germany are also offered by forecasted trends in the market for green technologies. DIW Berlin has developed a method to quantify future global demand for environmental goods and services based on alternative economic scenarios. The method places a key focus on the international trade of environmental goods and services. Our calculations predict that the effective annual demand for environmental goods and services in Germany will increase from$75 billion in 2004 to between $106 and 171 billion by 2020 (at 2004 prices and exchange rates).The high growth in German exports is responsible in particular for this trend. Nevertheless, sensitivity calculations indicate that demand could also grow at a much slower rate through 2020 under unfavorable economic conditions.Environmental Goods and Services Sector, World Trade, Scenarios

Erneuerbare Energien: Brandenburg an der Spitze

Erneuerbare Energien tragen wesentlich zum Klimaschutz, zur Schonung erschöpfbarer Ressourcen und zur Energieversorgungssicherheit bei. Ziel der Europäischen Union ist es, den Anteil erneuerbarer Energien bis 2020 auf mindestens 20 Prozent des Energieverbrauchs zu erhöhen. Deutschlands Anteil soll dabei von 8,6 Prozent im Jahr 2007 auf 18 Prozent steigen. Im Juni 2008 hat der Deutsche Bundestag beschlossen, bis 2020 den Anteil erneuerbarer Energien am Stromverbrauch auf mindestens 30 Prozent und den Anteil an der Wärmebereitstellung auf mindestens 14 Prozent zu verdoppeln. Um diese Ziele zu erreichen wurden auf Bundesebene insbesondere das Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz novelliert, ein spezielles Wärmegesetz eingeführt und die Ausgaben für Forschung und Entwicklung aufgestockt. Neben dem Bund spielen auch die Bundesländer eine wichtige Rolle bei der Förderung erneuerbarer Energien. Sie setzen eigene Ausbauziele, führen Förderprogramme durch und beeinflussen die Entwicklung maßgeblich durch die Gestaltung von rechtlichen und administrativen Rahmenbedingungen. Zum Vergleich der Anstrengungen und Erfolge der Bundesländer in diesem Bereich hat das DIW Berlin im Auftrag der Agentur für Erneuerbare Energien e. V. ein umfangreiches Indikatorensystem entwickelt. Es zeigt sich, dass sich die Bundesländer unterschiedlich stark für erneuerbare Energien engagieren und dabei verschiedene Schwerpunkte setzen. Auf der Grundlage dieser Studie ist im November der Preis "Leitstern 2008" in der Gesamtbewertung dem Land Brandenburg verliehen worden. Künftig müssen allerdings alle Bundesländer ihre Anstrengungen im Bereich der erneuerbaren Energien verstärken, damit die längerfristigen Ausbauziele erreicht werden können

Key parameters and efficiency of Mexican manufacturing: Are there still differences between the north and the south? An application of nested and stochastic frontier panel data models

This study explores the prevalence and nature of the regional divide for the Mexican manufacturing production across sub-national regions. We utilize a unique panel of municipality-level data from the manufacturing sector. An important contribution is the use of different panel methods to account for latent regional characteristics and the computation of performance indicators for each municipality which will enable detailed regional rankings. Firstly, we apply nested panel methods to estimate regional production functions and to analyze production characteristics and scale economies. Subsequently, we use stochastic frontier analysis methods to test for productivity and efficiency differences in manufacturing throughout the country. Our results suggest that the economic structure and productivity of southern Mexico is considerably different from the centrally located manufacturing belt and the north. Remarkably, rankings based on nested panel and stochastic frontier estimations confirm very similar regional patterns. Nevertheless, efficiency varies strongly within states, indicating that 'islands of excellence' prevail in otherwise highly inefficient and lagging states

Innovative Activity in Wind and Solar Technology: Empirical Evidence on Knowledge Spillovers Using Patent Data

This paper studies technological change in renewable energies, providing empirical evidence on the determinants of innovative activity with a special emphasis on the role of knowledge spillovers. We investigate two major renewable energy technologies - wind and solar - across a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1978 to 2004. Spillovers may occur at the national level, either within the same technology field or economic sector (intra-sectoral spillovers) or in related technologies or sectors (inter-sectoral spillovers), or at the international level. We find that innovation is strongly driven by knowledge spillovers, especially those occurring at the national level. Wind and solar technologies exhibit distinct innovation characteristics: both are stimulated by intra-sectoral spillovers, but respond differently to inter-sectoral spillovers, which are only influential in the case of wind technology. We also find evidence that public R&D stimulates innovation, particularly in solar technologies.Technological change, renewable energy, patents, knowledge spillover, climate change, innovation

Innovation in Concentrating Solar Power Technologies: A Study Drawing on Patent Data

Better understanding the innovative process of renewable energy technologies is important for tackling climate change. Though concentrating solar power is receiving growing interest, innovation studies so far have explored innovative activity in solar technologies in general, ignoring the major differences between solar photovoltaic and solar thermal technologies. This study relies on patent data to examine international innovative activity in concentrating solar power technologies. Our unique contribution, based on engineering expertise and detailed datawork, is a classification system matching solar thermal technologies to the International Patent Classification (IPC) system. To this end we suggest a narrowly defined set of IPC classes and a broader one of technologies relevant to CSP, but not exclusively so. We moreover exploit information from three international patent offices, the European, the United States and the Japanese patent office. Innovative activity in narrowly defined CSP technologies has experienced an early boom before 1980 and only recently showed some signs of more activity - a pattern closely resembling the R&D support path. R&D and innovation are concentrated in few high-tech countries - such as the U.S. or Germany. Large CSP potential is not a sufficient condition for innovation, only developed countries such as Australia with both CSP potential and adequate economic and scientific capabilities are found to be among the group of relevant innovators.Innovation, patent data, solar technologies, climate change

Economic Effects of Renewable Energy Expansion: A Model-Based Analysis for Germany

Increasing utilization of renewable energy sources (RES) is a priority worldwide. Germany has been a forerunner in the deployment of RES and has ambitious goals for the future. The support and use of renewables affects the economy: It creates business opportunities in sectors producing renewable energy facilities, but also comes along with costs for supporting the deployment of renewables. This paper analyses and quantifies the net balance of economic effects associated with renewable energy deployment in Germany until 2030. To this end, we use a novel model, the 'Sectoral Energy-Economic Econometric Model' (SEEEM). SEEEM is an econometric multi-country model which, for Germany, contains a detailed representation of industries, including 14 renewable energy technology sectors. Our results show that renewable energy expansion can be achieved without compromising growth or employment. The analysis reveals a positive net effect on economic growth in Germany. Net employment effects are positive. Their size depends strongly on labour market conditions and policies. Results at the industry level indicate the size and direction of the need for restructuring across the sectors of the Germany economy.

Economic Opportunities and Structural Effects of Sustainable Energy Supply

Renewable energy sources and increased energy efficiency are not only crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other negative impacts of conventional energy supply; they also hold enormous economic opportunity. Significant and dynamically growing sectors have emerged in the area of renewable energy over the last several years. In 2010, 26.6 billion euros were invested in Germany alone in renewable energy facilities. Altogether, renewable energy sources created 35.5 billion euros in demand for the German economy. Gross employment in the area of renewable energy is estimated at 367,400 persons for 2010. Likewise, the net economic balance for the expansion of renewables is positive. Model calculations conducted by DIW Berlin show that the gross domestic product is by 2.9 percent higher in 2030 in the "Expansion Scenario" than following a "Null Scenario" with no expansion. Depending on the labor market conditions, the net employment effects appear to be weak to moderate, but in any case positive. These scenario calculations also illustrate that the impact of the expansion differs across sectors. Furthermore, the transition from the current energy supply regime to one where renewable energy sources contribute a large share and energy efficiency has been substantially increased will require a structural change in business and the working world that will have to be followed closely in the future.Renewable energy, economic impacts, structural change, Germany

Global Demand for Environmental Goods and Services on the Rise: Good Growth Opportunities for German Suppliers

According to conservative calculations, over $580 billion was spent worldwide on environmental goods and services and renewable energy technologies1 in 2004. So-called "green spending" is set for strong growth in the future on account of the long-term expansion of the global economy and mounting environmental challenges. Significant opportunities for growth and employment in Germany are also offered by forecasted trends in the market for green technologies. DIW Berlin has developed a method to quantify future global demand for environmental goods and services based on alternative economic scenarios. The method places a key focus on the international trade of environmental goods and services. Our calculations predict that the effective annual demand for environmental goods and services in Germany will increase from$75 billion in 2004 to between $106 and 171 billion by 2020 (at 2004 prices and exchange rates).The high growth in German exports is responsible in particular for this trend. Nevertheless, sensitivity calculations indicate that demand could also grow at a much slower rate through 2020 under unfavorable economic conditions

Weltweite Nachfrage nach Umwelt- und Klimaschutzgütern steigt: gute Wachstumschancen für deutsche Anbieter

Die weltweiten Ausgaben für Umweltschutzgüter und Investitionen in erneuerbare Energien beliefen sich im Jahr 2004 auf über 580 Milliarden US-Dollar - konservativ gerechnet. Aufgrund des langfristigen Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft und zunehmender ökologischer Herausforderungen werden die Ausgaben in Zukunft stark wachsen. Daraus ergeben sich für Deutschland erhebliche Chancen für Wachstum und Beschäftigung. Das DIW Berlin hat jetzt ein methodisches Verfahren entwickelt, das die zukünftige weltweite Nachfrage nach Umweltschutzgütern in ökonomischen Szenarien quantifiziert. Dabei wird vor allem auch der internationale Handel mit solchen Gütern analysiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die in Deutschland wirksame Nachfrage nach Umwelt- und Klimaschutzgütern von derzeit rund 75 Milliarden US-Dollar bis zum Jahr 2020 auf 106 bis 171 Milliarden zunehmen dürfte (zu Preisen und Wechselkursen von 2004). Die Dynamik ergibt sich insbesondere aus der Entwicklung der deutschen Exporte. Sensitivitätsrechnungen weisen darauf hin, dass diese unter ungünstigen Bedingungen auch geringer ausfallen können.Environmental Goods and Services Sector, World Trade, Scenarios

Economic opportunities and structural effects of sustainable energy supply

Renewable energy sources and increased energy efficiency are not only crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other negative impacts of conventional energy supply; they also hold enormous economic opportunity. Significant and dynamically growing sectors have emerged in the area of renewable energy over the last several years. In 2010, 26.6 billion euros were invested in Germany alone in renewable energy facilities. Altogether, renewable energy sources created 35.5 billion euros in demand for the German economy. Gross employment in the area of renewable energy is estimated at 367,400 persons for 2010. Likewise, the net economic balance for the expansion of renewables is positive. Model calculations conducted by DIW Berlin show that the gross domestic product is by 2.9 percent higher in 2030 in the Expansion Scenario than following a Null Scenario with no expansion. Depending on the labor market conditions, the net employment effects appear to be weak to moderate, but in any case positive. These scenario calculations also illustrate that the impact of the expansion differs across sectors. Furthermore, the transition from the current energy supply regime to one where renewable energy sources contribute a large share and energy efficiency has been substantially increased will require a structural change in business and the working world that will have to be followed closely in the future