The Scottish economy [June 1991]

In this Quarterly Economic Commentary this section will concentrate solely on the Scottish Chambers Business Survey (SCBS) due to difficulties in obtaining information from the CBI. The SCBS is now the largest, most comprehensive regular Survey of the Scottish economy. The summarised below results refer to the first quarter of 1991 for six major sectors of the economy ie. manufacturing, construction, retail and wholesale distribution, financial institutions, tourism and leisure and oil. 4000 companies from Aberdeen, Central, Dundee, Edinburgh, Fife and Glasgow Chambers of Commerce are surveyed each quarter

The world economy [March 1991]

Despite some evidence of a decline in September, year-on-year growth in industrial production continued to be healthy in the third quarter of 1990. In the year to September both the G7 countries and the OECD as a whole experienced 2.6% growth in industrial production. As in previous quarters, the German and Japanese economies continued to provide the bulk of the growth, with increases in industrial production of 6.0% and 7.7% respectively for the year to September (October for Japan). While less spectacular, France (2.4%) and the United States (1.8%) also showed reasonably healthy growth, while the UK went into sharp decline, with annual growth of - 2.3% for the year to September. Growth rates of industrial production for the remaining G7 countries were Italy, 0.6% and Canada, -4.2%. Analyses of macroeconomic trends, including an analysis of the economic health of the United States, Japan and Germany, is also provided

Scottish Labour Market Trends [November 2016]

On key indicators, Scotland’s labour market continues to hold up well despite a challenging economic environment. Employment for example, remains close to record highs. Since the mid-2000s, there has been a rise in the number of women in the labour force, reflecting, in part, progress in knocking down barriers to equality of economic opportunity. Youth unemployment, having risen substantially during the first years of the decade, has fallen back. However, on other indicators, performance is more mixed. Employment in the Scottish economy fell slightly this quarter (by 12,000), and Scotland’s employment rate remains lower than for the UK as a whole. The proportion of people working full-time and the number of hours worked on average has fallen. So in effect, whilst close to record numbers of people may be in work, as a whole they are working fewer hours (often not of their own choosing). Relatively slow growth in the overall economy combined with high employment has damaged productivity. And on wider indicators, such as wage growth, underemployment, and job security, performance has been weak. Over the last year, unemployment fell by 38,000 to 4.7% (for all those aged 16-64) – and back to rates close to those witnessed pre-2008. However, the recent fall in unemployment appears to stem not from people finding work, but from a fall in the number of people actively looking for work. If this reflects an increase in ‘discouraged’ workers then it is a concern. At the very least, it undermines comments by politicians who measure success solely by changes in unemployment and not the overall health of the labour market. Labour market conditions have weakened in the areas most exposed to the slowdown in oil and gas – Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire. – although their rates of unemployment typically remain below the Scottish average. Most forward indicators – at least at the UK level – suggest that the outlook for 2017 and 2018 is weaker than it was just 6 months ago. Arguably, the most significant development over the next few months is likely to be rising inflation. The Bank of England forecast that prices will rise sharply in the months ahead reducing real incomes and fuelling wage demands. With heightened economic uncertainty and ongoing fiscal restraint in the public sector, the near-time outlook for people in work is likely to be just as important an issue for policymakers as the prospects for those still seeking work

Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [February 2009]

Since we last reported in October there has been a considerable deterioration in the actual and forecast performance of all the major economies. In October we considered there was a ‘high probability’ that Scotland would go into recession in 2009. Now, we are certain that not only is Scotland currently in recession but that the recession looks likely to be as severe as that in the 1980s and could even be worse. The tentacles of recession are spreading throughout the economy with construction and financial service activity subject to sustained contraction, hotels & catering turning down from the first quarter of last year and real estate & business services contracting appreciably after March. Economy-wide GVA contracted by -0.8% in the third quarter and seems likely to have fallen markedly in the fourth quarter if the UK’s performance is any guide. Third-quarter manufactured exports decreased by 1% in real terms and by 0.4% over the year. Business surveys covering the fourth quarter period reinforce the expectation that the slowdown will be severe. In the labour market employment is falling and unemployment is rising

Alt Graz: Ursulinenkloster Leonhardstraße 1907

Blick zum Ursulinenkloste

Scotland's innovation performance : a review of recent evidence

This paper summarises recent data on Scotland's innovation performance and how this compares to other countries, using data from the UK Innovation Survey and the European Union’s Community Innovation Survey. The paper assesses the reasons for Scotland's absolute and relative improvement in innovation activity by examining the performance of individual types of innovation. The paper concludes that although Scotland's headline innovation performance has improved, this has been driven more by improved performance of 'organisational innovation' than by companies introducing new products, services or processes. This implications of this for company performance are unclear

Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [November 2010]

The Scottish and UK economies strengthened appreciably in their recovery from recession in the 2nd quarter of this year. Preliminary UK dat a for the 3rd quarter indicates some weakening but at 0.8% over the quarter growth exceeded expectations. Scottish GDP growth fell again in the first quarter, by -0.2%, and with zero growth in 2009q3 and 0.1% growth in the final quarter of 2009, there is a case for arguing that the Scottish economy did not emerge from recession until the 2010q2, two quarters after the UK. The Scottish economy went into recession one quarter later than the UK. The fall in Scottish GDP during the 'recession' to 2010q1 was therefore -5. 81% compared to a fall of -6.32% during the recession in the UK, still less severe than the UK. But with growth of 1.3% in the 2010q2, compared to 1.2% in the UK, the Scottish bounce back was considerable. However, there is reason to believe that an unsustainable bounce back in construction and re-stocking were key reasons for the strength of the recovery in the second quarter which would tend to fade away in later quarters. The 0.8% preliminary estimate of UK 3rd quarter growth in part appeared to contradict that assumption, but construction growth remained strong to the incredulity of many associated with the industry. We still await further data to ascertain the spending composition of the 3rd quarter UK growth rate and whether temporary re-stocking was still a principal driver, or whether there had been a pick-up in more sustainable export and investment growth

GRAZ, Hauptplatz

Hauptplatz mit Markstände

The performance of Scotland's high growth companies

The process of establishing and growing a strong business base is an important hallmark of any successful economy. The pace of business start-ups and their subsequent growth has challenged policymakers for decades. While there has been a major research focus on entrepreneurship in Scotland, less attention has been focused on how Scotland is doing at the top end of SMEs. This article examines key data on new high-growth companies in Scotland. It first examines the age profile of Scotland's Top 100 companies, especially the extent to which these are new or well-established, and compares this UK and US experience. The article then focuses on Scotland's high growth firms (HGFs), in particular how Scotland performs in producing top high growth firms in relation to the UK. A key question is how many of these firms are amongst the top performing UK high growth companies and whether this has changed over time

The Economic Contribution of Celtic FC

Celtic FC is a leading professional football club in Glasgow, Scotland, founded in 1888 and participating in domestic and European competitions. The club has enjoyed considerable "on field" success and has become a significant business in its own right with a strong financial record from ticket sales, merchandise, and broadcasting rights. During the course of a season, the club's matches draw significant attendances, the bulk of which are in Glasgow but also further afield. Millions more will be aware of Celtic FC from broadcasting of matches through various media outlets. Whilst the majority of people attending Celtic FC matches will be from Scotland, a significant number of attendees reside outside Scotland. The clubs "reach" therefore spans not only the domestic market but – like many major clubs – extends internationally. Increasingly, major football clubs are becoming a visible representation of a town, city or region on a global scale. Celtic is no different. The aim of this report is to estimate the contribution of Celtic FC to the Scottish economy. This contribution is the sum of two elements: i) the economic footprint of the club itself plus ii) the economic boost from supporters attending matches (home and away) involving the club