Survival Analysis in LGD Modeling

The paper proposes an application of the survival time analysis methodology to estimations of the Loss Given Default (LGD) parameter. The main advantage of the survival analysis approach compared to classical regression methods is that it allows exploiting partial recovery data. The model is also modified in order to improve performance of the appropriate goodness of fit measures. The empirical testing shows that the Cox proportional model applied to LGD modeling performs better than the linear and logistic regressions. In addition a significant improvement is achieved with the modified pseudo Cox LGD model

Mobile Criminals, Immobile Crime: The Efficiency of Decentralized Crime Deterrence

In this paper we examine a class of local crimes that involve perfectly mobile criminals, and perfectly immobile criminal opportunities. We focus on local non-rival crime deterrence that is more efficient against criminals pursuing domestic crimes than criminals pursuing crimes elsewhere. In a standard case of sincerely delegated politicians and zero transfers to other districts, we show that centralized deterrence unambiguously dominates the decentralized deterrence. With strategic delegation and voluntary in-kind transfers, the tradeoff is exactly the opposite: Decentralization achieves the social optimum, whereas cooperative centralization overprovides for enforcement. This is robust to various cost-sharing modes. We also examine the effects of the growing interdependence of districts, stemming from criminals' increasing opportunities to strategically displace. Contrary to the supposition in Oates's decentralization theorem, increasing interdependence makes centralization less desirable

Valuation of Convexity Related Derivatives

We will investigate valuation of derivatives with payoff defined as a nonlinear though close to linear function of tradable underlying assets. Derivatives involving Libor or swap rates in arrears, i.e. rates paid in a wrong time, are a typical example. It is generally tempting to replace the future unknown interest rates with the forward rates. We will show rigorously that indeed this is not possible in the case of Libor or swap rates in arrears. We will introduce formally the notion of plain vanilla derivatives as those that can be replicated by a finite set of elementary operations and show that derivatives involving the rates in arrears are not plain vanilla. We will also study the issue of valuation of such derivatives. Beside the popular convexity adjustment formula, we will develop an improved two or more variable adjustment formula applicable in particular on swap rates in arrears. Finally, we will get a precise fully analytical formula based on the usual assumption of log-normality of the relevant tradable underlying assets applicable to a wide class of convexity related derivatives. We will illustrate the techniques and different results on a case study of a real life controversial exotic swap