Calibrating QALYs to Respect Equality of Persons

Comparative valuation of different policy interventions often requires interpersonal comparability of benefit. In the field of health economics, the metric commonly used for such comparison, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, has been criticized for failing to respect the equality of all persons’ intrinsic worth, including particularly those with disabilities. A methodology is proposed that interprets ‘full quality of life’ as the best health prospect that is achievable for the particular individual within the relevant budget constraint. This calibration is challenging both conceptually and operationally as it shifts dramatically when technology or budget developments alter what can be achieved for incapacitated individuals. The proposal nevertheless ensures that the maximal achievable satisfaction of one person’s preferences can carry no more intrinsic value than that of another. This approach, which can be applied to other domains of social valuation, thus prevents implicit discrimination against the elderly and those with irremediable incapacities

Climate change adaptation strategies for Australian birds

Abstract In the first continental analysis of the effects of climate change on a faunal group, we identified that the climate space of 101 Australian terrestrial and inland water bird taxa is likely to be entirely gone by 2085, 16 marine taxa have breeding sites that are predicted to be at least 10% less productive than today, and 55 terrestrial taxa are likely to be exposed to more frequent or intense fires.  Birds confined to Cape York Peninsula, the Wet Tropics, the Top End of the Northern Territory (particularly the Tiwi Islands), the arid zone, King Island and southern South Australia (particularly Kangaroo Island) are most likely to lose climate space. There was some variation in the predictions of the 18 climate models deployed, but all predicted that the rainforest avifauna of Cape York Peninsula is likely to face the strongest challenge from climate change, particularly taxa currently confined to the Iron and McIlwraith Ranges. For marine birds, those nesting on Lord Howe and Norfolk Islands, the Great Barrier Reef and the Houtman Abrolhos are likely to face the greatest declines in local marine productivity. Changes in local marine productivity may also affect the endemic terrestrial birds of these islands, for which no climate modelling was possible. A small group of beach-nesting and saltmarsh birds may be affected by sea level rise.  Many taxa, and particularly seabirds, are potentially highly sensitive to climate change based on a set of ecological and morphological metrics. Small island taxa were most likely to be both exposed and sensitive to climate change, followed by marine and shoreline taxa. While threatened birds were more likely than non-threatened taxa to be exposed or sensitive to climate change, or both, a substantial proportion was neither. A key action that needs to be undertaken immediately is fine scale modelling of regions identified as having numerous highly exposed bird taxa, in order to identify climatic refugia within the landscape. Such refugia can then be secured and managed appropriately for the future. The most urgent ongoing action is monitoring, with support for the Atlas of Australian Birds seen as a particularly cost-effective investment. In the future, the most expensive actions will be management of refugia, and captive breeding should all other approaches to conservation in the wild fail. However, most of those for which captive breeding is recommended as a last resort are subspecies of species that are widespread, either in Australia or in New Guinea.  For in situ management, the most important actions will be those that are already important – fire management, weed and feral animal control and, for marine taxa, controls on fishing. A small number of species-specific actions are suggested, and there appears to be no urgent requirement for corridors for the maintenance of taxa likely to be threatened with extinction – those few taxa not already living in areas where there are likely to be refugia will require assistance to colonise new climate space. The cost of management over the next 50 years for persistence in the face of climate change of the 396 bird taxa that are very highly exposed, sensitive or both is estimated at $18.8 million per year –$47,700 per year for each taxon. The biggest ongoing costs are monitoring and direct species management but refugia management and captive breeding may eventually be needed, and will be much more expensive. Please cite this report as: Garnett, S, Franklin, D, Ehmke, G, VanDerWal, J, Hodgson, L, Pavey, C, Reside, A, Welbergen, J, Butchart, S, Perkins, G, Williams, S 2013 Climate change adaptation strategies for Australian birds,  National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast. pp.109. In the first continental analysis of the effects of climate change on a faunal group, we identified that the climate space of 101 Australian terrestrial and inland water bird taxa is likely to be entirely gone by 2085, 16 marine taxa have breeding sites that are predicted to be at least 10% less productive than today, and 55 terrestrial taxa are likely to be exposed to more frequent or intense fires.  Birds confined to Cape York Peninsula, the Wet Tropics, the Top End of the Northern Territory (particularly the Tiwi Islands), the arid zone, King Island and southern South Australia (particularly Kangaroo Island) are most likely to lose climate space. There was some variation in the predictions of the 18 climate models deployed, but all predicted that the rainforest avifauna of Cape York Peninsula is likely to face the strongest challenge from climate change, particularly taxa currently confined to the Iron and McIlwraith Ranges. For marine birds, those nesting on Lord Howe and Norfolk Islands, the Great Barrier Reef and the Houtman Abrolhos are likely to face the greatest declines in local marine productivity. Changes in local marine productivity may also affect the endemic terrestrial birds of these islands, for which no climate modelling was possible. A small group of beach-nesting and saltmarsh birds may be affected by sea level rise.  Many taxa, and particularly seabirds, are potentially highly sensitive to climate change based on a set of ecological and morphological metrics. Small island taxa were most likely to be both exposed and sensitive to climate change, followed by marine and shoreline taxa. While threatened birds were more likely than non-threatened taxa to be exposed or sensitive to climate change, or both, a substantial proportion was neither. A key action that needs to be undertaken immediately is fine scale modelling of regions identified as having numerous highly exposed bird taxa, in order to identify climatic refugia within the landscape. Such refugia can then be secured and managed appropriately for the future. The most urgent ongoing action is monitoring, with support for the Atlas of Australian Birds seen as a particularly cost-effective investment. In the future, the most expensive actions will be management of refugia, and captive breeding should all other approaches to conservation in the wild fail. However, most of those for which captive breeding is recommended as a last resort are subspecies of species that are widespread, either in Australia or in New Guinea.  For in situ management, the most important actions will be those that are already important – fire management, weed and feral animal control and, for marine taxa, controls on fishing. A small number of species-specific actions are suggested, and there appears to be no urgent requirement for corridors for the maintenance of taxa likely to be threatened with extinction – those few taxa not already living in areas where there are likely to be refugia will require assistance to colonise new climate space. The cost of management over the next 50 years for persistence in the face of climate change of the 396 bird taxa that are very highly exposed, sensitive or both is estimated at $18.8 million per year –$47,700 per year for each taxon. The biggest ongoing costs are monitoring and direct species management but refugia management and captive breeding may eventually be needed, and will be much more expensive

Value chain analysis of Paprika and Bird's Eye Chillies in Malawi

Total LandCare Malawi (TLC) is implementing a three-year USAID-funded Spice Promotion in Commercial Enterprises (SPICE) project in collaboration with NALI Limited and ASSNAP. The main aim of the project is to link small-scale spice producers to high-value markets and develop the competitiveness of bird’s eye chillies and paprika through commercial upgrading of the major players in their respective value chains. Under the SPICE project, TLC commissioned the paprika and bird’s eye chillies’ value chain study in February 2010 with the overall objective of providing technical guidance, professional expertise and knowledge on the current status of the paprika and bird’s eye chillies sector in Malawi and the prospects for value addition of the two crops in Malawi. The study covered Dowa, Dedza, Ntcheu, Salima, Nkhotakota, Nkhatabay, Mzimba and Thyolo districts. A value chain approach was used to identify the main players in paprika and bird’s eye chillies sub-sectors, the governance of the respective value chains, the vertical and horizontal linkages along the value chains and opportunities for value chain upgrading. A review of the different policies that relate to agriculture was also done to highlight the extent to which different policies promote or inhibit paprika and bird’s eye chillies production and marketing in Malawi. An analysis of the institutional framework was also conducted to determine the degree of coordination between different institutions in the paprika and bird’s eye chillies sub-sector. Among the major findings of the study, male farmers dominate the production of both paprika and bird’s eye chillies in Malawi and the two crops are largely sold to large-scale traders, most of whom are also exporters of the commodities. The smallholder farmers allocated relatively less land (18 percent) to paprika production in 2009/2010 season, compared to 40 percent of land to bird’s eye chillies. Although production is dominated by small-scale farmers, a number of commercial producers are also involved, such as Africa Invest Malawi. Some of the commercial producers are also engaged in out-grower schemes with the smallholder farmers. It was also observed that a large proportion of the farmers of both paprika and chillies access their seed through market-based sources. Among the major constraints facing the smallholder farmers is access to market information, especially as it relates to prices. Gross margins for bird’s eye chillies were found to be significantly higher (MK79,057/Ha) than that of paprika in the study areas (MK11,553/Ha). The Malawi paprika value chain has a number of actors. Paprika is mostly grown by smallholder producers, with Africa Invest Malawi being the only commercial producer. Apart from NALI LTD that buys fresh paprika as an ingredient into its Mango achar, most of the paprika is sold to large-scale traders/players as de-seeded pods. Most of the Malawi paprika is exported to spice manufacturing companies and brokers in South Africa. The brokers then export the product to Europe and USA, among other markets. The governance of the Malawi paprika value chain rests with the final buyers. In this buyer-driven chain, the quality demanded by the international buyers is enforced through prices. Similarly, the bird’s eye chilli value chain also has few players. The producers are mostly smallholder farmers, who sell their dry chillies to large-scale traders (Nali LTD, Africa Invest Malawi, Cheetah Malawi LTD, and Duconti Produce, among others). The large-scale traders export the commodity mostly to brokers in South Africa, and to end-users in Europe, the United Kingdom and others parts of the developed world. In this buyer-driven chain, prices are dictated by the final consumers. In order to improve the paprika and bird’s eye chillies sector in Malawi, there is an urgent need to substantially increase the production levels and the productivity of the two crops. Specifically, there is need to improve the paprika and bird’s eye chillies seed system; improve farmer’s agronomic practices through the provision of quality agricultural extension services and also improve the organization of farmers into groups. In order to improve marketing of the two commodities there is need to promote legally-binding contracts between producers and buyers, promote value-adding activities and processes so that different players experience value chain upgrading, promote domestic demand for chillies and paprika, promote vertical linkages among the buyers of paprika and chillies, and also improve the quality, timeliness and utilization of market information. On the policy front, there is an urgent need to develop a horticultural policy, as the sector is operating without a policy, an institutional framework or a legislative framework. It is expected that the three-year SPICE project will help the targeted farmers to address the major constraints and challenges highlighted in this report.value chain analysis; paprika; bird's eye chillies; Malawi

Analysis of rocks and minerals by attenuated total reflection with atlas

Routine non-destructive analyses of rocks and minerals in slab or powder form maybe practicable by the application of the technique of attenuated total reflection [ATR] in infrared [IR] spectrophotometry. An atlas of spectra would serve the analytical chemist and geologist, who in turn would serve the miner, the lapidarist, and other groups interested in rocks and minerals. No effort has been made to produce an atlas of spectra of rocks and minerals by ATR. No ATR spectra of rocks and minerals were found in the literature. The history of ATR indicates that it is still in its early stages of development. The application of all phases of IR to the study of minerals has been employed much less than to the study of organics. For the analysis of rocks and minerals, ATR is more versatile and more convenient than most methods. It is applicable for both opaque and transparent materials of thick or thin films. It is often requires no sample preparation. This study of ATR of minerals involves the development of an atlas of mineral powder spectra and of mineral slab spectra, the comparison of the two sets of spectra with each other, and the comparison of powder spectra from ATR with transmission spectra in the literature. the study is confined to the spectral range of 0.5 - 15.5 microns

The genealogy of morals: contemporary empirical accounts

In the late twentieth century, moral realists began to resurrect a type of argument that emerged during the Enlightenment. These realists appealed to moral progress as evidence for moral facts, and their arguments took the form of inferences to the best explanation. Recently, the argument style has emerged again. This time, the inference to the best explanation is being used by empirically-informed sentimentalists to argue that their theories can provide accounts of moral evolution that have greater explanatory and predictive power than the accounts offered by the moral realists. This thesis examines the arguments to the best explanation of such moral realists as Nicholas Sturgeon, Michael Slote, Michael Smith, Peter Singer, and Thomas Nagel. The views of these moral realists are confronted with the substantial empirical evidence provided by Shaun Nichols to bolster his Sentimental Rules account, which is a variety of sentimentalism. Nichols attempts to expand epidemiological approaches to cognitive anthropology to accommodate his research on affect-backed norms. I elucidate Nichols’ research and his own inference to the best explanation of the data he examines as well as his attack on the accounts provided by the moral realists. After examining this substantive piece of the debate over what actually counts as the best explanation of moral evolution, I argue that the inference to the best explanation is actually being employed in two distinct uses by these theorists. The first use presupposes a metaethical thesis regarding the nature of moral facts and renders the inference circular. The majority of the moral realists examined employ the inference in this fashion. The second use is not circular, but leaves the theorist with a very restricted ability to fill out the content of moral beliefs and moral facts

ORIGIN OF BLUE RIDGE BASEMENT ROCKS, DELLWOOD QUAD, WESTERN NC: NEW EVIDENCE FROM U-PB ZIRCON GEOCHRONOLOGY AND WHOLE ROCK GEOCHEMISTRY

Terrane discrimination in polycyclic continental basement rocks is challenging due to high-grade metamorphism and intense deformation. Based on early USGS mapping the Blue Ridge basement in the Dellwood quadrangle of the eastern Great Smoky Mountains was proposed to consist of augen orthogneisses of Laurentian (Grenvillian) affinity interfolded with migmatitic hornblende and biotite paragneisses (“Carolina Gneiss”) and amphibolites of uncertain affinity. However, detailed study reveals that the hornblende gneiss of Hadley and Goldsmith (1963) is a heterogeneous map unit consisting of (1)metaplutonic rocks; (2) variably foliated and folded felsic orthogneisses; (3) strongly migmatitic, folded Hbl+Bt-bearing gneisses; (4) foliated and lineated garnet amphibolites Field relations, petrology, and geochemistry demonstrate that felsic orthogneisses are related to metaplutonic rocks via (post-Taconian) progressive deformation and reconstitution. Whole rock XRF geochemistry reveals likely protoliths of Hbl gneiss and Bt gneiss are geochemically similar and have common sources. U-Pb zircon geochronology and field relationships suggest felsic orthogneisses (1050 Ma,1150-1190 Ma, 1250-1300 Ma) are components of the Mesoproterozoic Grenville basement, and not part of a metamorphosed Neoproterozoic syn-rift Laurentian margin cover sequence. A previously unknown age mode for Mesoproterozoic plutonism in the southern Appalachians was discovered (~1250-1300 Ma) suggesting the presence of a component exotic to pre-Grenvillian Laurentia (Amazonia?)