How ice anisotropy contributes to fold and ice stream in large-scale ice-sheet models

Satellite and airborne sensors have provided detailed data on ice surface flow velocities, englacial structures of ice sheets and bedrock elevations. These data give insight into the flow behaviour of ice sheets and glaciers. One significant phenomenon observed is large-scale folds (over 100 m in amplitude) in the englacial stratigraphy in the Greenland ice sheet. A large population of folds is located at ice streams, where the flow is distinctly faster than in the surroundings, such as the North-East Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS). While there is no consensus regarding the formation of large-scale folds, unraveling the underlying mechanisms presents significant potential for enhancing our understanding of the formation and dynamics of ice streams. Ice in ice sheets is a ductile material, i.e., it can flow as a thick viscous fluid with a power-law rheology. Furthermore, ice is significantly anisotropic in its flow properties due to its crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO). Here, we use the Full-Stokes code Underworld2 (Mansour et al.,2022) for 3D modelling of the power-law and transversely isotropic ice flow, also in comparison with the isotropic ice models. Our simulated folds with anisotropic ice show complex patterns on a bumpy bedrock, and are classified into three types: large-scale folds (fold amplitudes >100 m), small-scale folds (fold amplitudes <<100 m, wavelength <<km) and recumbent basal-shear folds. Our results indicate that bedrock topography contributes to perturbations in ice layers, and that ice anisotropy due to the CPO amplifies these into large-scale folds in convergent flow by horizontal shortening. As for our ice stream model, we simulate convergent flow as initial condition, which subsequently initiates the development of shear margins due to the rotation of the ice crystal basal planes. As soon as the shear margins develop, the ice stream starts to propagate upstream in a short time and narrows in the upstream part. Our modeling shows that the anisotropic rheology of ice and CPO change play a significant role for large-scale folding and for the initiation of ice streams with distinct shear margins. Hence, we promote the implementation of ice anisotropy in large-scale ice-sheet evolution models as it holds the potential to introduce novel perspectives to the glaciological community on the dynamics of ice flow

Railways, Growth, and Industrialisation in a Developing German Economy, 1829-1910

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the effect of railways on the spatial economic development of a German economy, the Kingdom of Württemberg, during the Industrial Revolution. Our identification strategy compares the economic development of `winning' municipalities that were connected to the railway in 1845-54 to the development of `losing' municipalities that were the runners-up choice for a given railway line between two major towns. Estimates from both differences-in-differences and inverse-probability-weighted models suggest that railway access increased annual population growth by 0.4 percentage points over more than half a century. Railways also increased wages, income and housing values, in line with predictions of economic geography models of transport infrastructure improvements, reduced the gender wage gap, and accelerated the transition away from agriculture. We find little evidence that these effects are driven by localised displacement effects

Railways, Growth, and Industrialisation in a Developing German Economy, 1829-1910

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the effect of railways on the spatial economic development of a German economy, the Kingdom of Württemberg, during the Industrial Revolution. Our identification strategy compares the economic development of `winning' municipalities that were connected to the railway in 1845-54 to the development of `losing' municipalities that were the runners-up choice for a given railway line between two major towns. Estimates from both differences-in-differences and inverse-probability-weighted models suggest that railway access increased annual population growth by 0.4 percentage points over more than half a century. Railways also increased wages, income and housing values, in line with predictions of economic geography models of transport infrastructure improvements, reduced the gender wage gap, and accelerated the transition away from agriculture. We find little evidence that these effects are driven by localised displacement effects

Reversing fortunes of German regions, 1926-2019: Boon and bane of early industrialization?

This paper shows that 19th-century industrialization is an important determinant of the significant changes in Germany’s economic geography observed in recent decades. Using novel data on economic activity in 163 labor market regions in West Germany, we establish that nearly half of them experienced a reversal of fortune between 1926 and 2019, i.e., they moved from the lower to the upper median of the income distribution or vice versa. Economic decline is concentrated in North Germany, economic ascent in the South. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in access to coal, we show that early industrialization turned from an advantage for economic development to a burden after World War II. The dominant position of heavy industry, supported by the local political-administrative system, limited regional adaptability when the old industries fell into crisis. Today, the early industrialized regions suffer from low innovation and deindustrialization. The (time-varying) effect of industrialization explains most of the decline in regional inequality observed in the 1960s and 1970s and about half of the current north-south gap in economic development

Formation Mechanisms of Large‐Scale Folding in Greenland's Ice Sheet

Radio‐echo sounding (RES) shows large‐scale englacial stratigraphic folds are ubiquitous in Greenland's ice sheet. However, there is no consensus yet on how these folds form. Here, we use the full‐Stokescode Underworld2 to simulate ice movements in three‐dimensional convergent flow, mainly considering iceanisotropy due to a crystallographic preferred orientation, vertical viscosity and density gradients in ice layers,and bedrock topography. Our simulated folds show complex patterns and are classified into: large‐scale folds(>100 m amplitude), small‐scale folds (<<100 m) and basal‐shear folds. The amplitudes of large‐scale foldstend to be at their maximum in the middle of the ice column or just below, in accordance with observations inRES data. We conclude that ice anisotropy amplifies the perturbations in ice layers (mainly due to bedrock topography) into large‐scale folds during flow. Density differences between the warm deep ice and cold iceabove may enhance fold amplification

Comment on “Exceptionally high heat flux needed to sustain the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream” by Smith-Johnsen et al. (2020)

Smith-Johnsen et al. (The Cryosphere, 14, 841–854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-841-2020, 2020) model the effect of a potential hotspot on the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS). They argue that a heat flux of at least 970 mW m−2 is required to have initiated or to control NEGIS. Such an exceptionally high heat flux would be unique in the world and is incompatible with known geological processes that can raise the heat flux. Fast flow at NEGIS must thus be possible without the extraordinary melt rates invoked in Smith-Johnsen et al. (2020)

Widening the lens of population-based health research to climate change impacts and adaptation: the climate change and health evaluation and response system (CHEERS)

BackgroundClimate change significantly impacts health in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), exacerbating vulnerabilities. Comprehensive data for evidence-based research and decision-making is crucial but scarce. Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites (HDSSs) in Africa and Asia provide a robust infrastructure with longitudinal population cohort data, yet they lack climate-health specific data. Acquiring this information is essential for understanding the burden of climate-sensitive diseases on populations and guiding targeted policies and interventions in LMICs to enhance mitigation and adaptation capacities.ObjectiveThe objective of this research is to develop and implement the Change and Health Evaluation and Response System (CHEERS) as a methodological framework, designed to facilitate the generation and ongoing monitoring of climate change and health-related data within existing Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites (HDSSs) and comparable research infrastructures.MethodsCHEERS uses a multi-tiered approach to assess health and environmental exposures at the individual, household, and community levels, utilizing digital tools such as wearable devices, indoor temperature and humidity measurements, remotely sensed satellite data, and 3D-printed weather stations. The CHEERS framework utilizes a graph database to efficiently manage and analyze diverse data types, leveraging graph algorithms to understand the complex interplay between health and environmental exposures.ResultsThe Nouna CHEERS site, established in 2022, has yielded significant preliminary findings. By using remotely-sensed data, the site has been able to predict crop yield at a household level in Nouna and explore the relationships between yield, socioeconomic factors, and health outcomes. The feasibility and acceptability of wearable technology have been confirmed in rural Burkina Faso for obtaining individual-level data, despite the presence of technical challenges. The use of wearables to study the impact of extreme weather on health has shown significant effects of heat exposure on sleep and daily activity, highlighting the urgent need for interventions to mitigate adverse health consequences.ConclusionImplementing the CHEERS in research infrastructures can advance climate change and health research, as large and longitudinal datasets have been scarce for LMICs. This data can inform health priorities, guide resource allocation to address climate change and health exposures, and protect vulnerable communities in LMICs from these exposures

COSMOS-Europe: a European network of cosmic-ray neutron soil moisture sensors

[EN] Climate change increases the occurrence and severity of droughts due to increasing temperatures, altered circulation patterns, and reduced snow occurrence. While Europe has suffered from drought events in the last decade unlike ever seen since the beginning of weather recordings, harmonized long-term datasets across the continent are needed to monitor change and support predictions. Here we present soil moisture data from 66 cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNSs) in Europe (COSMOS-Europe for short) covering recent drought events. The CRNS sites are distributed across Europe and cover all major land use types and climate zones in Europe. The raw neutron count data from the CRNS stations were provided by 24 research institutions and processed using state-of-the-art methods. The harmonized processing included correction of the raw neutron counts and a harmonized methodology for the conversion into soil moisture based on available in situ information. In addition, the uncertainty estimate is provided with the dataset, information that is particularly useful for remote sensing and modeling applications. This paper presents the current spatiotemporal coverage of CRNS stations in Europe and describes the protocols for data processing from raw measurements to consistent soil moisture products. The data of the presented COSMOS-Europe network open up a manifold of potential applications for environmental research, such as remote sensing data validation, trend analysis, or model assimilation The dataset could be of particular importance for the analysis of extreme climatic events at the continental scale. Due its timely relevance in the scope of climate change in the recent years, we demonstrate this potential application with a brief analysis on the spatiotemporal soil moisture variability. The dataset, entitled "Dataset of COSMOS-Europe: A European network of Cosmic-Ray Neutron Soil Moisture Sensors", is shared via Forschungszentrum Julich: https://doi.org/10.34731/x9s3-kr48 (Bogena and Ney, 2021).We thank TERENO (Terrestrial Environmental Observatories), funded by the Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft for the financing and maintenance of CRNS stations. We acknowledge financial support by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) of the research unit FOR 2694 Cosmic Sense (grant no. 357874777) and by the German Federal Ministry of Education of the Research BiookonomieREVIER, Digitales Geosystem -Rheinisches Revier project (grant no. 031B0918A). COSMOS-UK has been supported financially by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (grant no. NE/R016429/1). The Olocau experimental watershed is partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the research project TETISCHANGE (grant no. RTI2018-093717-BI00). The Calderona experimental site is partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the research projects CEHYRFO-MED (grant no. CGL2017-86839C3-2-R) and SILVADAPT.NET (grant no. RED2018-102719-T) and the LIFE project RESILIENT FORESTS (grant no. LIFE17 CCA/ES/000063). The University of Bristol's Sheepdrove sites have been supported by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council through a number of projects (grant nos. NE/M003086/1, NE/R004897/1, and NE/T005645/1) and by the International Atomic Energy Agency of the United Nations (grant no. CRP D12014).Bogena, HR.; Schrön, M.; Jakobi, J.; Ney, P.; Zacharias, S.; Andreasen, M.; Baatz, R.... (2022). COSMOS-Europe: a European network of cosmic-ray neutron soil moisture sensors. Earth System Science Data. 14(3):1125-1151. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-20221125115114

ExternE : externalities of energy : methodology 2005 update

The ExternE methodology provides a framework for transforming impacts that are expressed in different units into a common unit - monetary values. It has the following principal stages: 1) Definition of the activity to be assessed and the background scenario where the activity is embedded. Definition of the important impact categories and externalities. 2) Estimation of the impacts or effects of the activity (in physical units). In general, the impacts allocated to the activity are the difference between the impacts of the scenario with and the scenario without the activity. 3) Monetisation of the impacts, leading to external costs. 4) Assessment of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis. 5) Analysis of the results, drawing of conclusions. The ExternE methodology aims to cover all relevant (i.e. not negligible) external effects. The purpose of ongoing research is to cover more effects and thus reduce gaps and in addition refine the methodology to reduce uncertainties. Currently, the following impact categories are included in the methodology and described in detail in this report: 1) Environmental impacts: Impacts that are caused by releasing either substances (e.g. fine particles) or energy (noise, radiation, heat) into the environmental media air, soil and water. The methodology used here is the impact pathway approach. 2) Global warming impacts: For global warming, two approaches are followed. First, the quantifiable damage is estimated. However, due to large uncertainties and possible gaps, an avoidance cost approach is used as the recommended methodology. 3) Accidents: Accidents are rare unwanted events in contrast to normal operation. A distinction can be made between impacts to the public and occupational accident risks. Public risks can in principle be assessed by describing the possible accidents, calculating the damage and by multiplying the damage with the probability of the accidents. An issue not yet accounted for here is the valuation so-called ‘Damocles’ risks, for which high impacts with low probability are seen as more problematic than vice versa, even if the expected value is the same. A method for addressing this risk type has still to be developed