Preferential Trade Arrangements and the Pattern of Production and Trade when Inputs are Differentiated

This paper is concerned with rules of origin when intermediate goods are differentiated. An analytical model emphasizes trade patterns and the relative importance of trade in intermediates given trade preferences. Econometric evidence based on intra-OECD trade in motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts points to a systematic impact of trade costs and FTA membership, following from rules of origin and reduction in border measures, on the role of intermediates and their relative importance in production and trade. These results are consistent with a conceptual framework involving rules-base trade costs and two-way trade in differentiated intermediate goods and final goods.rules of origin, trading costs, trade in intermediates, industry location

Formulas for Success? Some Options for Market Access Negotiations

Most of the large tariff reductions achieved in multilateral trade negotiations have involved the use of tariff-cutting formulas, such as the “Swiss” formula. But the wide variations in initial tariff rates between active participants may create a demand for new approaches in the Doha Development Agenda. This paper surveys a range of formula options and examines new, flexible versions of the Swiss formula that might be used to target tariff escalation and peaks, and would allow policy makers to directly target how far they will move towards free trade, while providing some flexibility for trading off reductions in peak tariffs against reductions in lower-tariff sectors.tariff formulas, WTO, market access modalities

Integration of the Central and East European Countries Into the European Union: Implications for the CEECs

International Relations/Trade,

NONLINEAR PANEL ESTIMATION OF TIME-VARYING EFFECTS OF IMPORT QUOTAS

We develop a panel-based ICLS framework for estimating the export tax equivalent (ETE) of quotas where the ETEs vary over time. Working with a panel of bilateral data on textile and clothing trade, underlying bilateral tari?s, and the country-pair coverage of quotas under the WTOÕs Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC), we use this framework to examine the evolution of market access conditions in the textile and clothing sectors. Our estimating framework takes advantage of the panel nature of trade data when calculating export tax equivalents while allowing for inequality constraints on the quota premium estimates. We also implement quadrature methods for calculating conÞdence intervals for our regression-based NTB measures.NTB, ICLS, quadrature, quotas, ATC, MFA, MPEC, gravity model

Market structure and market access

The authors examine an issue at the nexus of domestic competition policy and international trade, the interaction between goods trade and market power in domestic trade and distribution sectors. Theory suggests a set of linkages between service-sector competition and goods trade supported by econometrics involving imports of 22 OECD countries compared with 69 exporters. Competition in services affects the volume of goods trade. Additionally, because of interaction between tariffs and competition, the market structure of the domestic service sector becomes increasingly important as tariffs are reduced. Empirically service competition apparently matters most for exporters in smaller, poorer countries. The results also suggest that while negotiated agreements leading to cross-border services liberalization may boost goods trade as well, they may also lead to a fall in goods trade when such liberalization involves foreign direct investment leading to increased service sector concentration.Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Access to Markets,Trade Policy

National and international income dispersion and aggregate expenditures

We examine linkages between aggregate household income, distribution of that income, and aggregate cross-country expenditure patterns. We are able to decompose income effects into international income dispersion effects (from variations in average income) and national income dispersion (income distribution) effects. This yields insights for relevant aggregate household specifications in computational policy models emphasizing household distribution of income. This also yields a consumption-pattern based inequality index that summarizes the projection of inequality through expenditure patterns. Estimation of flexible demand systems with representative expenditures (which reflects income distribution within countries) yields a significant relationship between representative consumption and cross-country demand patterns.income distribution, aggregate demand, demand system estimation, Engel curves

Antitrust in Open Economies

We examine antitrust rules in a two county general equilibrium trade model, contrasting national and multilateral (cooperative) determination of competition policy, exploring the properties of the policy equilibrium. It is not imperfect competition, but variation in competitive stance between sectors that matters for trading partners. Beggar-thy-neighbor competition policies relate to countries’ comparative advantages, and hurt the factor intensively used, or specific to, the imperfectly competitive sector. They also create a competitive advantage for export firms. FDI can be pro-competitive in this context, reducing the scope for beggar-thy-neighbor policies and reducing the gains from a multilateral competition agreement.antitrust policy, competition policy, merger policy, trade and imperfect competition, FDI

Institutions, infrastructure, and trade

The authors examine the influence of infrastructure, institutional quality, colonial and geographic context, and trade preferences on the pattern of bilateral trade. They are interested in threshold effects, and so emphasize those cases where bilateral country pairs do not actually trade. The authors depart from the institutions and infrastructure literature in this respect, using selection-based gravity modeling of trade flows. They also depart from this literature by mixing principal components (to condense the institutional and infrastructure measures) with a focus on deviations in the resulting indexes from expected values for given income cohorts to control for multicollinearity. The authors work with a panel of 284,049 bilateral trade flows from 1988 to 2002. Matching bilateral trade and tariff data and controlling for tariff preferences, level of development, and standard distance measures, they find that infrastructure and institutional quality are significant determinants not only of export levels, but also of the likelihood exports will take place at all. Their results support the notion that export performance, and the propensity to take part in the trading system at all, depends on institutional quality and access to well-developed transport and communications infrastructure. Indeed, this dependence is far more important, empirically, than variations in tariffs in explaining sample variations in North-South trade.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Free Trade,Economic Theory&Research,Trade Law,Trade Policy

Bilateral Exchange Rates and Jobs

We study the labor market effects of bilateral exchange rate realignment. We place emphasis on the composition of trade, the role of intermediates, and the underlying conditions of the labor market. Employment effects hinge on the fraction exported to and imported from the trading partner. A larger fraction exported to and a smaller fraction imported from the trading partner make it more likely that appreciation has beneficial effects. Furthermore, more sticky price expectations in wage formation, a smaller fraction of intermediates in the production process, and a lower rate of importer pass through make it more likely that appreciation of the exchange rate of the trade partner has positive employment effects. At a more technical level, the scope for substitution away from higher priced inputs, either toward other sources of supply, or toward value added, is also important to the direction and magnitude of changes in employment.bilateral exchange rates, devaluation, exchange rates and trade, trade and employment