The econometric challenge to Keynes: arguments and contradictions in the early debates about a late issue

The paper investigates the discussions between Keynesians and 'reconcilers' about the interpretation of the 'General Theory', and the effect of the transformation of economics during the thirties as the outcome of that discussion. It highlights the contribution of some of the first econometriians, who argued for a new view of economics as an exact science based on mechanical models and mathematically defined theories, while supporting planning rather than the indirect steering devices suggested by Keynes. The inroduction of this type of mathematical models in the framework of Keynesian macro-policies is related to two major events: the Oxford meeting of the Econometric Society in which the IS-LM model emerged, and the Cambridge meeting dedicated to the discussion of Tinbergen's work on business cycles. The framework, antecedents and consequences of Keynes-Tinbergen debate on the role of econometrics is here assessed on the basis of unpublished documental evidence. Although most of the econometricians took sides with tinbergen against Keynes's scepticism on the use of formal models and simple representations in macroeconomics, several of them, including the more influential of the then young mathematically inclined economists, shared some of the basic elements of the critique. These discussions among Frisch, Tinbergen, Lange, Divisia, Roos, Marschak and others are reviewed in the paper and related to the evolution of the Cambridge group itself.Keynes, Frisch, Tinbergen, Econometrics, Economic Policy, Equilibrium,

As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution

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Octahedral to tetrahedral bonding transitions in the local structure of phase change optical media Ge2Sb2Se5xTe5−5x with Se doping

Random access memories utilize fast, reversible switching between ordered and disordered states of matter in phase change materials (PCMs) such as Ge2Sb2Te5−5x. The short-range structure in the disordered phase has been described either as (i) a network of Ge tetrahedra or (ii) Peierls distorted Ge/Sb octahedra. The PCM transition was investigated in bulk Ge2Sb2Se5xTe5−5x (GSST), in which amorphization sets in with Se doping (x ≈ 0.85) upon quenching. GSST has a hexagonal crystalline ground state with Ge/Sb octahedral coordination, but the phase change transition to the amorphous state that is only observed when the system is quenched brings a short-range structure with sharp, tetrahedrally coordinated Ge/Sb correlations and shortened bonds that are distinctly different from the expected octahedral pairing

The international experience of in-situ recovery of the DCD heart: a multicentre retrospective observational study.

BackgroundHeart transplantation is an effective treatment offering the best recovery in both quality and quantity of life in those affected by refractory, severe heart failure. However, transplantation is limited by donor organ availability. The reintroduction of heart donation after the circulatory determination of death (DCD) in 2014 offered an uplift in transplant activity by 30%. Thoraco-abdominal normothermic regional perfusion (taNRP) enables in-situ reperfusion of the DCD heart. The objective of this paper is to assess the clinical outcomes of DCD donor hearts recovered and transplanted from donors undergoing taNRP.MethodThis was a multicentre retrospective observational study. Outcomes included functional warm ischaemic time, use of mechanical support immediately following transplantation, perioperative and long-term actuarial survival and incidence of acute rejection requiring treatment. 157 taNRP DCD heart transplants, performed between February 2, 2015, and July 29, 2022, have been included from 15 major transplant centres worldwide including the UK, Spain, the USA and Belgium. 673 donations after the neurological determination of death (DBD) heart transplantations from the same centres were used as a comparison group for survival.FindingstaNRP resulted in a 23% increase in heart transplantation activity. Survival was similar in the taNRP group when compared to DBD. 30-day survival was 96.8% ([92.5%-98.6%] 95% CI, n = 156), 1-year survival was 93.2% ([87.7%-96.3%] 95% CI, n = 72) and 5-year survival was 84.3% ([69.6%-92.2%] 95% CI, n = 13).InterpretationOur study suggests that taNRP provides a significant boost to heart transplantation activity. The survival rates of taNRP are comparable to those obtained for DBD transplantation in this study. The similar survival may in part be related to a short warm ischaemic time or through a possible selection bias of younger donors, this being an uncontrolled observational study. Therefore, our study suggests that taNRP offers an effective method of organ preservation and procurement. This early success of the technique warrants further investigation and use.FundingNone of the authors have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject

The international experience of in-situ recovery of the DCD heart: a multicentre retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Heart transplantation is an effective treatment offering the best recovery in both quality and quantity of life in those affected by refractory, severe heart failure. However, transplantation is limited by donor organ availability. The reintroduction of heart donation after the circulatory determination of death (DCD) in 2014 offered an uplift in transplant activity by 30%. Thoraco-abdominal normothermic regional perfusion (taNRP) enables in-situ reperfusion of the DCD heart. The objective of this paper is to assess the clinical outcomes of DCD donor hearts recovered and transplanted from donors undergoing taNRP. METHOD: This was a multicentre retrospective observational study. Outcomes included functional warm ischaemic time, use of mechanical support immediately following transplantation, perioperative and long-term actuarial survival and incidence of acute rejection requiring treatment. 157 taNRP DCD heart transplants, performed between February 2, 2015, and July 29, 2022, have been included from 15 major transplant centres worldwide including the UK, Spain, the USA and Belgium. 673 donations after the neurological determination of death (DBD) heart transplantations from the same centres were used as a comparison group for survival. FINDINGS: taNRP resulted in a 23% increase in heart transplantation activity. Survival was similar in the taNRP group when compared to DBD. 30-day survival was 96.8% ([92.5%-98.6%] 95% CI, n = 156), 1-year survival was 93.2% ([87.7%-96.3%] 95% CI, n = 72) and 5-year survival was 84.3% ([69.6%-92.2%] 95% CI, n = 13). INTERPRETATION: Our study suggests that taNRP provides a significant boost to heart transplantation activity. The survival rates of taNRP are comparable to those obtained for DBD transplantation in this study. The similar survival may in part be related to a short warm ischaemic time or through a possible selection bias of younger donors, this being an uncontrolled observational study. Therefore, our study suggests that taNRP offers an effective method of organ preservation and procurement. This early success of the technique warrants further investigation and use. FUNDING: None of the authors have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject

The international experience of in-situ recovery of the DCD heart: a multicentre retrospective observational study.

peer reviewed[en] BACKGROUND: Heart transplantation is an effective treatment offering the best recovery in both quality and quantity of life in those affected by refractory, severe heart failure. However, transplantation is limited by donor organ availability. The reintroduction of heart donation after the circulatory determination of death (DCD) in 2014 offered an uplift in transplant activity by 30%. Thoraco-abdominal normothermic regional perfusion (taNRP) enables in-situ reperfusion of the DCD heart. The objective of this paper is to assess the clinical outcomes of DCD donor hearts recovered and transplanted from donors undergoing taNRP. METHOD: This was a multicentre retrospective observational study. Outcomes included functional warm ischaemic time, use of mechanical support immediately following transplantation, perioperative and long-term actuarial survival and incidence of acute rejection requiring treatment. 157 taNRP DCD heart transplants, performed between February 2, 2015, and July 29, 2022, have been included from 15 major transplant centres worldwide including the UK, Spain, the USA and Belgium. 673 donations after the neurological determination of death (DBD) heart transplantations from the same centres were used as a comparison group for survival. FINDINGS: taNRP resulted in a 23% increase in heart transplantation activity. Survival was similar in the taNRP group when compared to DBD. 30-day survival was 96.8% ([92.5%-98.6%] 95% CI, n = 156), 1-year survival was 93.2% ([87.7%-96.3%] 95% CI, n = 72) and 5-year survival was 84.3% ([69.6%-92.2%] 95% CI, n = 13). INTERPRETATION: Our study suggests that taNRP provides a significant boost to heart transplantation activity. The survival rates of taNRP are comparable to those obtained for DBD transplantation in this study. The similar survival may in part be related to a short warm ischaemic time or through a possible selection bias of younger donors, this being an uncontrolled observational study. Therefore, our study suggests that taNRP offers an effective method of organ preservation and procurement. This early success of the technique warrants further investigation and use. FUNDING: None of the authors have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject