Testing Long Run Relationship between Exports and Imports: Evidence from Ghana

This study examines the long-run relationship between exports and imports for the Ghanaian economy for the period of 1948 to 2010. Empirically, we find that Ghana’s exports and imports are cointegrated using Granger and Engle (1987) two-step procedure. However, the slope coefficients from the cointegration equations were not statistically equal to 1 and the equilibrium relationship further indicates that the economy of Ghana imports more than 1 dollar to get 1-dollar exports revenue. Conclusively, the sustainability of Ghana’s foreign deficit is doubtful

A Regional Analysis of Corn Yield Models: Comparing Quadratic versus Cubic Trends

This study investigates county-level corn yield trend models using quadratic and cubic trend estimations. The study empirically revealed that the cubic trend is more appropriate for yield data from the West, Midwest and South regions. The linear and the quadratic trend models were respectively found to be more appropriate for yield data from the Plains and Atlantic regions. Results suggest that the data should be allowed to determine the appropriate trend relationships to avoid trend misspecification. Additionally, the yield trends are found to be inconsistent across all the regions. Different locations tend to exhibit different yield trends. It is therefore recommended that differences between regions be recognized when we conduct yield trend tests and not to generalize our results to other regions

Economics of Contracts and Risks

Abstracting from potential incentive costs, both theoretical and applied research on contracts and contract choice suggest that bundling multiple contracts may be optimal. With the abundance of risk and uncertainty, especially among low-income environments that are often ill-prepared, the design and commercial success of contracts for mitigating these risks remain crucial. This dissertation brings together applied microeconomic theory along with careful empirical analyses to study three issues about contracts and risks, with implications for the functioning of markets, financial inclusion, unequal impacts of climate extremes and the design of insurance and financial contracts aim at mitigating environmental risks that confront society. Chapter 2 studies the potential moral hazard and welfare consequences of interlinking credit with insurance market contracts, establishing that interlinking these two markets not only increases insurance demand, but induces large moral hazard effects in develop- ing countries. Chapter 3 examines environmental risks and their differential impacts on human capital investments, specifically, documenting how Harmattan-induced “Meningitis” outbreaks potentially explain the observed gender gaps in educational attainments in Niger. Chapter 4 evaluates the impact of informal risk-sharing schemes on the adoption of “index” insurance contracts aimed at mitigating climate risks among low-income societies. Two com- peting forces are identified to show that informal network schemes have ambiguous effect on the demand for formal index insurance, which provides novel explanations for two empirical puzzles about index contracts along with an experimental evidence from rural India. The third project connects the first two via contracts and environmental risks, respectively

Schooling in Sickness and in Health: The Effects of Epidemic Disease on Gender Inequality

Disease epidemics can worsen social inequality by increasing gender gaps in educational attainment through raising the direct and opportunity costs of investing in girls, particularly in poorer countries. We investigate this hypothesis by examining the effects of sudden exposure to the 1986 meningitis epidemic in Niger on the gender gap in education. We document a significant reduction in years of education for school-aged girls relative to boys following the epidemic. We explore several channels underlying the results and find evidence highlighting income effects of epidemics on households and increased early marriage of girls

Disease and Gender Gaps in Human Capital Investment: Evidence from Niger's 1986 Meningitis Epidemic

This paper examines whether disease burdens, especially prevalent in the tropics, contribute significantly to widening gender gaps in educational attainments. We estimate the impact of sudden exposure to the 1986 meningitis epidemic in Niger on girls’ education relative to boys. Our results suggest that increases in meningitis cases during epidemic years significantly reduce years of education disproportionately for primary school-aged going girls in areas with higher meningitis exposure. There is no significant effect for boys in the same cohort and no effects of meningitis exposure for non-epidemic years. Our findings have broader implications for climate-induced disease effects on social inequality

'An Ill Wind that Blows No Girl Any Good': The Impacts of Climate-Induced Disease on Gender Inequality

Disease epidemics with climate links can worsen social inequality by increasing gender gaps in educational attainment through raising the direct and opportunity costs of investing in girls, particularly in poorer countries in the tropics. We investigate this hypothesis by examining the effects of sudden exposure to the 1986 meningitis epidemic in Niger on the gender gap in education. We document a significant reduction in years of education for school-aged girls relative to boys following the epidemic. We explore several channels underlying the results and find evidence highlighting income effects of epidemics on households and increased early marriage of girls

The Epidemic Effect: On the Politics and Economic Burden of Infectious Disease

Epidemics of infectious disease can have deleterious effects on economic development except mitigated through global health governance and domestic institutions. We investigate this hypothesis by examining the effects of sudden exposure to meningitis on economic outcomes using evidence from the meningitis belt in sub-Saharan Africa. Meningitis shocks reduce economic activity and child health outcomes in periods when the World Health Organization (WHO) does not declare an epidemic year. These effects are reversed when the WHO declares an epidemic year. A primary mechanism explaining the heterogeneity in results may be the influx of donor aid when the WHO declares an epidemic year. We document an increase in World Bank health aid projects approved during epidemic years. Areas that receive more health aid have more economic activity though health projects funded during epidemic years are rated relatively worse by independent evaluators. Domestic institutions influence resource distribution, with regions that are co-ethnic with the president having better outcomes than non-co-ethnic areas. The results are robust to extensive controls and using the timing of the Islamic Hajj to instrument for meningitis shocks

Climate Change, Epidemics and Inequality

What are the links between climate change, epidemics and socioeconomic inequality? While recent epidemics have focused attention on the effects of epidemics on economic outcomes, and a separate literature in climate science and environmental health has linked global environmental change to increased incidence of epidemics of infectious disease, there's relatively little work connecting these two literatures. We explore the links between climate change, epidemics and group-based inequality by first reviewing the scientific literature modeling the effects of global warming on epidemics of infectious disease. We highlight the ways in which climate variables like temperature, precipitation and wind speeds, and adaptive human behavior like migration may more easily facilitate the spread of infectious disease. We then examine the effects of climate-induced epidemics on gender inequality using evidence from the African meningitis belt. The results show that epidemics can worsen outcomes for groups in already relatively economically precarious circumstances, thereby widening group-based socioeconomic inequality. Effective polices to combat the negative effects of epidemics must be mindful not to increase existing group-based inequalities, and should focus on minimizing damage for members of the most marginalized groups

'We Are Not Guinea Pigs': The Effects of Negative News on Vaccine Compliance

In 1996, following an epidemic, Pfizer tested a new drug on 200 children in Muslim Nigeria. 11 children died and multiple were disabled. We study the effects of negative news on vaccine compliance using evidence from the 2000 disclosure of deaths of Muslim children in the Pfizer trials. Muslim mothers reduced routine vaccination of children born after the 2000 disclosure. The effect was stronger for educated mothers and mothers residing in minority Muslim neighborhoods with relatively stronger ties to religious networks. The disclosure did not affect other health-seeking behavior of mothers, and the reduction effect is specific to child vaccination

The Value of Communication for Mental Health

Mental health disorders account for a significant share of the overall global disease burden and translate into staggeringly large economic losses, particularly in low-income countries, where people are faced with several unexpected shocks. We test whether improved communication can mitigate such mental health disorders. Partnering with a major telecommunications company, we implement low-cost communication interventions that provide mobile calling credits to a nationally representative set of low-income adults in Ghana during the COVID-19 pandemic. Individuals’ inability to make unexpected calls, need to borrow SOS airtime, and to seek digital loans decreased significantly relative to a control group. As a result, the programs led to a significant decrease in mental distress (-9.8%) and the likelihood of severe mental distress by -2.3 percentage points (a quarter of the mean prevalence), with null impact on consumption expenditure. The effects are stronger for monthly mobile credits than a lump-sum. Simple cost-benefit analysis shows that providing communication credit to low-income adults is a cost-effective policy for improving mental health. Communication – the ability to stay connected – meaningfully improves mental well-being and interventions about communication are particularly valuable when implemented as many installments