Recent Increases in Tasmanian Huon Pine Ring Widths from a Subalpine Stand: Natural Climate Variability, CO2 Fertilisation, or Greenhouse Warming?

Tasmanian subalpine Huon pines from the extreme high-altitude limit of the species distribution provide a summer temperature reconstruction extending back beyond 800 Be. Compared to low elevation Huon pine sites, the subalpine ring-widths exhibit a straightforward direct response to current growth-season temperatures and indicate anomalous warming of 0.33 ± O.06°C from 1967- 91. This warming is consistent with Tasmanian instrumental records and with hemispheric and global records. The possibility that the trees are responding directly to CO2 fertilisation is explored, using a high-precision record of CO2, obtained from air in Antarctic ice and firn, plus direct measurements of air from Cape Grim. The temperature forcing appears capable of explaining the ring-width variations in the alpine trees over the full range of observed periods, whereas CO2 fertilisation would require a more complex interaction and is not supported by other arguments. Two millennia-long tree-ring reconstructions of summer temperatures from South America do not exhibit the recent warming, nor other features found in the Tasmanian record on decadal to century time-scales. In fact, the South American chronologies bear little resemblance to each other, but do, however, reflect their own regional instrumental records. The Mt Read ring-width chronology, and the instrumental temperature series used for its calibration, also co-vary with climate influences of a distinctly regional character, yet still replicate many of the features reported as hemispheric and global temperatures over the last century. Spectral analysis of the Mt Read tree-ring data over the full 2,792 years suggests that at least part of the recent warming in the instrumental records could be a consequence of "natural forcing" of the record, complicating an interpretation in terms of a greenhouse-forced warming

Partitioning of the global fossil CO2 sink using a 19-year trend in atmospheric O2

O2/N2 is measured in the Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA), a suite of tanks filled with background air at Cape Grim, Tasmania (40.7°S, 144.8°E) between April 1978 and January 1997. Derived trends are compared with published O2/N2 records and assessed against limits on interannual variability of net terrestrial exchanges imposed by trends of δ13C in CO2. Two old samples from 1978 and 1987 and eight from 1996/97 survive critical selection criteria and give a mean 19-year trend in δ(O2/N2) of -16.7 ± 0.5 per meg yr-1, implying net storage of +2.3 ± 0.7 GtC (1015 g carbon) yr-1 of fossil fuel CO2 in the oceans and +0.2 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1 in the terrestrial biosphere. The uptake terms are consistent for both O2/N2 and δ13C tracers if the mean 13C isotopic disequilibrium flux, combining terrestrial and oceanic contributions, is 93 ± 15 GtC ‰ yr-1. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union

RXTE Observations of an Outburst of Recurrent X-ray Nova GS 1354-644

We present the results of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of GS 1354-644 during a modest outburst in 1997-1998. The source is one of a handful of black hole X-ray transients that are confirmed to be recurrent in X-rays. A 1987 outburst of the same source observed by Ginga was much brighter, and showed a high/soft spectral state. In contrast the 1997-1998 outburst showed a low/hard spectral state. Both states are typical for black hole binaries. The RXTE All Sky Monitor observed an outburst duration of 150 to 200 days. PCA and HEXTE observations covered ~70 days near the maximum of the light curve and during the flux decline. Throughout the observations, the spectrum can be approximated by Compton upscattering of soft photons by energetic electrons. The hot electron cloud has a temperature kT ~30 keV and optical depth tau~4--5. To fit the data well an additional iron fluorescent line and reflection component are required, which indicates the presence of optically thick cool material, most probably in the outer part of the accretion disk. Dramatic fast variability was observed, and has been analyzed in the context of a shot noise model. The spectrum appeared to be softest at the peaks of the shot-noise variability. The shape of the power spectrum was typical for black hole systems in a low/hard state. We note a qualitative difference in the shape of the dependence of fractional variability on energy, when we compare systems with black holes and with neutron stars. Since it is difficult to discriminate these systems on spectral grounds, at least in their low/hard states, this new difference might be important.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ (Feb. 2000, v.530), uses emulateapj.st

Continuing upward trend in Mt Read Huon pine ring widths – Temperature or divergence?

To date, no attempt has been made to assess the presence or otherwise of the “Divergence Problem” (DP) in existing multi-millennial Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. We have updated the iconic Mt Read Huon pine chronology from Tasmania, southeastern Australia, to now include the warmest decade on record, AD 2000–2010, and used the Kalman Filter (KF) to examine it for signs of divergence against four different temperature series available for the region. Ring-width growth for the past two decades is statistically unprecedented for the past 1048 years. Although we have identified a decoupling between temperature and growth in the past two decades, the relationship between some of the temperature records and growth has varied over time since the start of instrumental records. Rather than the special case of ‘divergence’, we have identified a more general time-dependence between growth and temperature over the last 100 years. This time-dependence appears particularly problematic at interdecadal time scales. Due to the time-dependent relationships, and uncertainties related to the climate data, the use of any of the individual temperature series examined here potentially complicates temperature reconstruction. Some of the uncertainty in the climate data may be associated with changing climatic conditions, such as the intensification of the sub-tropical ridge (STR) and its impact on the frequency of anticyclonic conditions over the Mt Read site. Increased growth at the site, particularly in the last decade, over and above what would be expected based on a linear temperature model alone, may be consistent with a number of hypotheses. Existing uncertainties in the climate data need to be resolved and independent physiological information obtained before a range of hypotheses for this increased growth can be effectively evaluated

The Local Edge Machine: inference of dynamic models of gene regulation

We present a novel approach, the Local Edge Machine, for the inference of regulatory interactions directly from time-series gene expression data. We demonstrate its performance, robustness, and scalability on in silico datasets with varying behaviors, sizes, and degrees of complexity. Moreover, we demonstrate its ability to incorporate biological prior information and make informative predictions on a well-characterized in vivo system using data from budding yeast that have been synchronized in the cell cycle. Finally, we use an atlas of transcription data in a mammalian circadian system to illustrate how the method can be used for discovery in the context of large complex networks.Department of Applied Mathematic

Overview of the Large Hadron Collider cryo-magnets logistics

More than 1700 superconducting cryo-magnets have to be installed in the Large Hadron Collider tunnel. The long, heavy and fragile LHC cryo-magnets are difficult to handle and transport in particular in the LEP tunnel environment originally designed for smaller, lighter LEP magnets. An installation rate of more than 20 cryo-magnets per week is needed to cope with the foreseen LHC installation end date. The paper gives an overview of the transport and installation sequence complexity, from the storage area at the surface to the cryo-magnet final position in the tunnel. The success of this task depends on a series of independent factors that have to be considered at the same time. The equipment needed for the transport and tunnel installation of the LHC cryo-magnets is briefly described. The manpower and equipment organisation as well as the challenges of logistics are then detailed. The paper includes conclusions and some of the lessons learned during the first phase of the LHC cryo-magnets installation

A revised 1000 year atmospheric δ\u3csup\u3e13\u3c/sup\u3e C-CO2 record from Law Dome and South Pole, Antarctica

We present new measurements of δ13C of CO2 extracted from a high-resolution ice core from Law Dome (East Antarctica), together with firn measurements performed at Law Dome and South Pole, covering the last 150 years. Our analysis is motivated by the need to better understand the role and feedback of the carbon (C) cycle in climate change, by advances in measurement methods, and by apparent anomalies when comparing ice core and firn air δ13C records from Law Dome and South Pole. We demonstrate improved consistency between Law Dome ice, South Pole firn, and the Cape Grim (Tasmania) atmospheric δ13C data, providing evidence that our new record reliably extends direct atmospheric measurements back in time. We also show a revised version of early δ13C measurements covering the last 1000 years, with a mean preindustrial level of -6.50‰. Finally, we use a Kalman Filter Double Deconvolution to infer net natural CO2 fluxes between atmosphere, ocean, and land, which cause small δ13C deviations from the predominant anthropogenically induced δ13C decrease. The main features found from the previous δ13C record are confirmed, including the ocean as the dominant cause for the 1940 A.D. CO2 leveling. Our new record provides a solid basis for future investigation of the causes of decadal to centennial variations of the preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentration. Those causes are of potential significance for predicting future CO2 levels and when attempting atmospheric verification of recent and future global carbon emission mitigation measures through Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Models. Key Points New and revised, firn and ice δ13C-CO2 measurements from Antarctica Improve consistency between ice and firn δ13C-CO2 measurements Net natural CO2 fluxes between atmosphere, ocean and land inferred ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

An open label pilot trial of low‐dose lithium for young people at ultra‐high risk for psychosis

Aim: Lithium, even at low doses, appears to offer neuroprotection against a wide variety of insults. In this controlled pilot, we examined the safety (i.e., side‐effect profile) of lithium in a sample of young people identified at ultra‐high risk (UHR) for psychosis. The secondary aim was to explore whether lithium provided a signal of clinical efficacy in reducing transition to psychosis compared with treatment as usual (TAU). Methods: Young people attending the PACE clinic at Orygen, Melbourne, were prescribed a fixed dose (450 mg) of lithium (n = 25) or received TAU (n = 78). The primary outcome examined side‐effects, with transition to psychosis, functioning and measures of psychopathology assessed as secondary outcomes. Results: Participants in both groups were functionally compromised (lithium group GAF = 56.6; monitoring group GAF = 56.9). Side‐effect assessment indicated that lithium was well‐tolerated. 64% (n = 16) of participants in the lithium group were lithium‐adherent to week 12. Few cases transitioned to psychosis across the study period; lithium group 4% (n = 1); monitoring group 7.7% (n = 6). There was no difference in time to transition to psychosis between the groups. No group differences were observed in other functioning and symptom domains, although all outcomes improved over time. Conclusions: With a side‐effect profile either comparable to, or better than UHR antipsychotic trials, lithium might be explored for further research with UHR young people. A definitive larger trial is needed to determine the efficacy of lithium in this cohort