Non-Parametric Analysis of ENSO Impacts on Yield Distributions: Implications for GRP Contract Design

The paper reports preliminary results of non-parametric analysis of historical and crop model generated peanut yield series in the Southwest Georgia. The results suggest ENSO phase dependent differences in yield distributions that are similar for both the simulated and actual series. The differences are magnified in GRP insurance premiums.Crop Production/Industries,

MASCOTTE: Model for AnalySing and foreCasting shOrT TErm developments

MASCOTTE is the new version of the Banque de France's macro-econometric forecasting model. Following the last rebasing of National Accounts (currently at 1995 price), the previous version of the model was simplified, re-specified and re-estimated. The model is essentially used for making macro-economic projections of the French economy over a two-to-three year horizon, which requires an accounting framework as close as possible to the French National Accounts. The main agents are companies, households, general government and the rest of the world. The new version now includes a supply block derived from the explicit optimisation behaviour of companies using a Cobb-Douglas technology under imperfect competition, and a new Wage Setting schedule. Full homogeneity of the nominal side of the model ensures the independence between the nominal equilibrium and the real equilibrium, the latter being only determined in the long run by relative prices. Furthermore, as regards the specification of equations, special attention was paid to the consequences of changes in short-term interest rates.Macro-economic model ; Applied econometrics ; Forecasting ; France

PIB potentiel et écart de PIB : quelques évaluations pour la France.

This Study and Research Paper is devoted to different estimates of the French economy's potential output and output gap. Several methods, which are presented in detail, are put forward to measure these indicators. The first two sections of the paper profile statistical univariate approaches: smoothing using the Hodrick-Prescott filter; and estimation of a trend, potentially including breaks. The next two sections extend the discussion on statistical techniques to multivariate cases. To be precise, they involve the analysis of structural VAR models and unobserved component models. The final section proposes a structural method for estimating potential output, where business sector output is described by a Cobb-Douglas function, while that of the non-business sector is assumed to be exogenous. For this structural method, the NAIRU has to be calculated before estimating the short to medium-term level of potential output.

The Thermal Design, Characterization, and Performance of the SPIDER Long-Duration Balloon Cryostat

We describe the SPIDER flight cryostat, which is designed to cool six millimeter-wavelength telescopes during an Antarctic long-duration balloon flight. The cryostat, one of the largest to have flown on a stratospheric payload, uses liquid helium-4 to deliver cooling power to stages at 4.2 and 1.6 K. Stainless steel capillaries facilitate a high flow impedance connection between the main liquid helium tank and a smaller superfluid tank, allowing the latter to operate at 1.6 K as long as there is liquid in the 4.2 K main tank. Each telescope houses a closed cycle helium-3 adsorption refrigerator that further cools the focal planes down to 300 mK. Liquid helium vapor from the main tank is routed through heat exchangers that cool radiation shields, providing negative thermal feedback. The system performed successfully during a 17 day flight in the 2014-2015 Antarctic summer. The cryostat had a total hold time of 16.8 days, with 15.9 days occurring during flight.Comment: 15 pgs, 17 fig

Design and construction of a carbon fiber gondola for the SPIDER balloon-borne telescope

We introduce the light-weight carbon fiber and aluminum gondola designed for the SPIDER balloon-borne telescope. SPIDER is designed to measure the polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation with unprecedented sensitivity and control of systematics in search of the imprint of inflation: a period of exponential expansion in the early Universe. The requirements of this balloon-borne instrument put tight constrains on the mass budget of the payload. The SPIDER gondola is designed to house the experiment and guarantee its operational and structural integrity during its balloon-borne flight, while using less than 10% of the total mass of the payload. We present a construction method for the gondola based on carbon fiber reinforced polymer tubes with aluminum inserts and aluminum multi-tube joints. We describe the validation of the model through Finite Element Analysis and mechanical tests.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures. Presented at SPIE Ground-based and Airborne Telescopes V, June 23, 2014. To be published in Proceedings of SPIE Volume 914

SPIDER: Probing the Early Universe with a Suborbital Polarimeter

We evaluate the ability of SPIDER, a balloon-borne polarimeter, to detect a divergence-free polarization pattern ("B-modes") in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). In the inflationary scenario, the amplitude of this signal is proportional to that of the primordial scalar perturbations through the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. We show that the expected level of systematic error in the SPIDER instrument is significantly below the amplitude of an interesting cosmological signal with r=0.03. We present a scanning strategy that enables us to minimize uncertainty in the reconstruction of the Stokes parameters used to characterize the CMB, while accessing a relatively wide range of angular scales. Evaluating the amplitude of the polarized Galactic emission in the SPIDER field, we conclude that the polarized emission from interstellar dust is as bright or brighter than the cosmological signal at all SPIDER frequencies (90 GHz, 150 GHz, and 280 GHz), a situation similar to that found in the "Southern Hole." We show that two ~20-day flights of the SPIDER instrument can constrain the amplitude of the B-mode signal to r<0.03 (99% CL) even when foreground contamination is taken into account. In the absence of foregrounds, the same limit can be reached after one 20-day flight.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables; v2: matches published version, flight schedule updated, two typos fixed in Table 2, references and minor clarifications added, results unchange

280 GHz Focal Plane Unit Design and Characterization for the SPIDER-2 Suborbital Polarimeter

We describe the construction and characterization of the 280 GHz bolometric focal plane units (FPUs) to be deployed on the second flight of the balloon-borne SPIDER instrument. These FPUs are vital to SPIDER's primary science goal of detecting or placing an upper limit on the amplitude of the primordial gravitational wave signature in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by constraining the B-mode contamination in the CMB from Galactic dust emission. Each 280 GHz focal plane contains a 16 x 16 grid of corrugated silicon feedhorns coupled to an array of aluminum-manganese transition-edge sensor (TES) bolometers fabricated on 150 mm diameter substrates. In total, the three 280 GHz FPUs contain 1,530 polarization sensitive bolometers (765 spatial pixels) optimized for the low loading environment in flight and read out by time-division SQUID multiplexing. In this paper we describe the mechanical, thermal, and magnetic shielding architecture of the focal planes and present cryogenic measurements which characterize yield and the uniformity of several bolometer parameters. The assembled FPUs have high yields, with one array as high as 95% including defects from wiring and readout. We demonstrate high uniformity in device parameters, finding the median saturation power for each TES array to be ~3 pW at 300 mK with a less than 6% variation across each array at one standard deviation. These focal planes will be deployed alongside the 95 and 150 GHz telescopes in the SPIDER-2 instrument, slated to fly from McMurdo Station in Antarctica in December 2018

Percutaneous Pulmonary Valve Implantation in Small Conduits: A Multicenter Experience

BACKGROUND: Guidelines allow percutaneous pulmonary valve implantation (PPVI) in conduits above 16mm diameter. Balloon dilatation of a conduit to a diameter>110% of the original implant size is also not recommended. We analyzed patients undergoing PPVI in such conditions. METHODS AND RESULTS: Nine patients (May 2008-July 2016) from 8 institutions underwent PPVI in conduits 110%. Mean age and weight of the 14 patients was 12.1 (7.7 to 16) years and 44.9 (19 to 83) kg. Median conduit diameter at PPVI was 12 (10 to 17) mm. Median systolic right ventricular pressure was 70 (40 to 94) mmHg. Procedure was successful in all cases. A confined conduit rupture occurred in 7 patients (50%) and was treated with covered stent in 6. One patient experienced dislocation of 2 pulmonary artery stents that were parked distally. The post-implantation median systolic right ventricular pressure was 36 (28 to 51) mmHg. A fistula between right-ventricle outflow and aorta was found in one patient, secondary to undiagnosed conduit rupture. This was closed surgically. After a median follow-up of 20.16 (6.95 to 103.61) months, all the patients are asymptomatic with no significant RVOT stenosis. CONCLUSIONS: PPVI is feasible in small conduits but rate of ruptures is high. Although such ruptures remain contained and can be managed with covered stents in our experience, careful selection of patients and high level of expertise are necessary. More studies are needed to better assess the risk of PPVI in this population.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio