Agent-Based Markov Modeling for Improved COVID-19 Mitigation Policies

The year 2020 saw the covid-19 virus lead to one of the worst global pandemics in history. As a result, governments around the world have been faced with the challenge of protecting public health while keeping the economy running to the greatest extent possible. Epidemiological models provide insight into the spread of these types of diseases and predict the e_ects of possible intervention policies. However, to date, even the most data-driven intervention policies rely on heuristics. In this paper, we study how reinforcement learning (RL) and Bayesian inference can be used to optimize mitigation policies that minimize economic impact without overwhelming hospital capacity. Our main contributions are (1) a novel agent-based pandemic simulator which, unlike traditional models, is able to model _ne-grained interactions among people at speci_c locations in a community; (2) an RL- based methodology for optimizing _ne-grained mitigation policies within this simulator; and (3) a Hidden Markov Model for predicting infected individuals based on partial observations regarding test results, presence of symptoms, and past physical contacts

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus among people of South Asian origin in Glasgow: results from a community based survey and laboratory surveillance

Background South Asians often present late with HCV or HBV related liver disease which could have been avoided with early diagnosis and subsequent treatment; however the prevalence of HCV/HBV among South Asians in Glasgow is not known. Accordingly, to inform the need for case finding among this group we aimed to examine the prevalence of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) among South Asians living in Glasgow. Methods A community-based survey recruited individuals at six mosques and four community centres serving the South Asian community during 2009-2010; participants had predominantly never been HCV tested. Laboratory surveillance data involving all individuals tested for HCV during 1993-2009 were examined and South Asians were identified using Nam Pehchan software. Results In the community-based survey, 2.6% of 1288 participants tested HCV-antibody positive; the prevalence ranged from 0.6% among those born in the UK to 3.1% among those born in Pakistan. The odds of testing HCV-antibody positive were significantly raised among those who had surgery in South Asia (aOR: 5.0, 95% CI: 2.0-12.3) and had either medical/dental treatment or an injection in South Asia (aOR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.0-5.0). Of 6404 South Asians identified from laboratory surveillance data, 9.3% tested HCV positive. An estimated 38% (330/870) of HCV-infected South Asians living in Glasgow remain undiagnosed. Conclusions South Asians living in Glasgow, particularly those born outside the UK are at greater risk of HCV infection than the general population. Efforts to increase awareness and testing in this population are warranted.</p

Identifying optimal clustering structures for residential energy consumption patterns using competency questions

Traditional cluster analysis metrics rank clustering structures in terms of compactness and distinctness of clusters. However, in real world applications this is usually insufficient for selecting the optimal clustering structure. Domain experts and visual analysis are often relied on during evaluation, which results in a selection process that tends to be adhoc, subjective and difficult to reproduce. This work proposes the use of competency questions and a cluster scoring matrix to formalise expert knowledge and application requirements for qualitative evaluation of clustering structures. We show how a qualitative ranking of clustering structures can be integrated with traditional metrics to guide cluster evaluation and selection for generating representative energy consumption profiles that characterise residential electricity demand in South Africa. The approach is shown to be highly effective for identifying usable and expressive consumption profiles within this specific application context, and certainly has wider potential for efficient, transparent and repeatable cluster selection in real-world applications

Using automated pharmacy records to assess the management of tuberculosis.

We used automated pharmacy dispensing data to characterize tuberculosis (TB) management for 45 health maintenance organization (HMO) members. Pharmacy records distinguished patients treated in HMOs from those treated elsewhere. For cases treated in HMOs, they provided useful information about appropriateness of prescribed regimens and adherence to therapy

Investigation of attentional bias in obsessive compulsive disorder with and without depression in visual search

Copyright: © 2013 Morein-Zamir et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedWhether Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) is associated with an increased attentional bias to emotive stimuli remains controversial. Additionally, it is unclear whether comorbid depression modulates abnormal emotional processing in OCD. This study examined attentional bias to OC-relevant scenes using a visual search task. Controls, non-depressed and depressed OCD patients searched for their personally selected positive images amongst their negative distractors, and vice versa. Whilst the OCD groups were slower than healthy individuals in rating the images, there were no group differences in the magnitude of negative bias to concern-related scenes. A second experiment employing a common set of images replicated the results on an additional sample of OCD patients. Although there was a larger bias to negative OC-related images without pre-exposure overall, no group differences in attentional bias were observed. However, OCD patients subsequently rated the images more slowly and more negatively, again suggesting post-attentional processing abnormalities. The results argue against a robust attentional bias in OCD patients, regardless of their depression status and speak to generalized difficulties disengaging from negative valence stimuli. Rather, post-attentional processing abnormalities may account for differences in emotional processing in OCD.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Deweyan tools for inquiry and the epistemological context of critical pedagogy

This article develops the notion of resistance as articulated in the literature of critical pedagogy as being both culturally sponsored and cognitively manifested. To do so, the authors draw upon John Dewey\u27s conception of tools for inquiry. Dewey provides a way to conceptualize student resistance not as a form of willful disputation, but instead as a function of socialization into cultural models of thought that actively truncate inquiry. In other words, resistance can be construed as the cognitive and emotive dimensions of the ongoing failure of institutions to provide ideas that help individuals both recognize social problems and imagine possible solutions. Focusing on Dewey\u27s epistemological framework, specifically tools for inquiry, provides a way to grasp this problem. It also affords some innovative solutions; for instance, it helps conceive of possible links between the regular curriculum and the study of specific social justice issues, a relationship that is often under-examined. The aims of critical pedagogy depend upon students developing dexterity with the conceptual tools they use to make meaning of the evidence they confront; these are background skills that the regular curriculum can be made to serve even outside social justice-focused curricula. Furthermore, the article concludes that because such inquiry involves the exploration and potential revision of students\u27 world-ordering beliefs, developing flexibility in how one thinks may be better achieved within academic subjects and topics that are not so intimately connected to students\u27 current social lives, especially where students may be directly implicated

GRB 060505: A possible short-duration gamma-ray burst in a star forming region at redshift of 0.09

On 2006 May 5, a four second duration, low energy, ~10^49 erg, Gamma-Ray Burst (GRB) was observed, spatially associated with a z=0.0894 galaxy. Here, we report the discovery of the GRB optical afterglow and observations of its environment using Gemini-south, Hubble Space Telescope (HST), Chandra, Swift and the Very Large Array. The optical afterglow of this GRB is spatially associated with a prominent star forming region in the Sc-type galaxy 2dFGRS S173Z112. Its proximity to a star forming region suggests that the progenitor delay time, from birth to explosion, is smaller than about 10 Myr. Our HST deep imaging rules out the presence of a supernova brighter than an absolute magnitude of about -11 (or -12.6 in case of ``maximal'' extinction) at about two weeks after the burst, and limits the ejected mass of radioactive Nickel 56 to be less than about 2x10^-4 solar mass (assuming no extinction). Although it was suggested that GRB 060505 may belong to a new class of long-duration GRBs with no supernova, we argue that the simplest interpretation is that the physical mechanism responsible for this burst is the same as for short-duration GRBs.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, ApJ submitte

An Observational Cohort Comparison of Facilitators of Retention in Care and Adherence to Anti-Eetroviral Therapy at an HIV Treatment Center in Kenya

BACKGROUND: Most HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings utilize multiple facilitators of adherence and retention in care but there is little data on the efficacy of these methods. We performed an observational cohort analysis of a treatment program in Kenya to assess which program components promote adherence and retention in HIV care in East Africa. METHODS: Patients initiating ART at A.I.C. Kijabe Hospital were prospectively enrolled in an observational study. Kijabe has an intensive program to promote adherence and retention in care during the first 6 months of ART that incorporates the following facilitators: home visits by community health workers, community based support groups, pharmacy counseling, and unannounced pill counts by clinicians. The primary endpoint was time to treatment failure, defined as a detectable HIV-1 viral load; discontinuation of ART; death; or loss to follow-up. Time to treatment failure for each facilitator was calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. The relative effects of the facilitators were determined by the Cox Proportional Hazards Model. RESULTS: 301 patients were enrolled. Time to treatment failure was longer in patients participating in support groups (448 days vs. 337 days, P<0.001), pharmacy counseling (480 days vs. 386 days, P = 0.002), pill counts (482 days vs. 189 days, P<0.001) and home visits (485 days vs. 426 days, P = 0.024). Better adherence was seen with support groups (89% vs. 82%, P = 0.05) and pill counts (89% vs. 75%, P = 0.02). Multivariate analysis using the Cox Model found significant reductions in risk of treatment failure associated with pill counts (HR = 0.19, P<0.001) and support groups (HR = 0.43, P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Unannounced pill counts by the clinician and community based support groups were associated with better long term treatment success and with better adherence

Genetic Association for Renal Traits among Participants of African Ancestry Reveals New Loci for Renal Function

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an increasing global public health concern, particularly among populations of African ancestry. We performed an interrogation of known renal loci, genome-wide association (GWA), and IBC candidate-gene SNP association analyses in African Americans from the CARe Renal Consortium. In up to 8,110 participants, we performed meta-analyses of GWA and IBC array data for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2), urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), and microalbuminuria (UACR >30 mg/g) and interrogated the 250 kb flanking region around 24 SNPs previously identified in European Ancestry renal GWAS analyses. Findings were replicated in up to 4,358 African Americans. To assess function, individually identified genes were knocked down in zebrafish embryos by morpholino antisense oligonucleotides. Expression of kidney-specific genes was assessed by in situ hybridization, and glomerular filtration was evaluated by dextran clearance. Overall, 23 of 24 previously identified SNPs had direction-consistent associations with eGFR in African Americans, 2 of which achieved nominal significance (UMOD, PIP5K1B). Interrogation of the flanking regions uncovered 24 new index SNPs in African Americans, 12 of which were replicated (UMOD, ANXA9, GCKR, TFDP2, DAB2, VEGFA, ATXN2, GATM, SLC22A2, TMEM60, SLC6A13, and BCAS3). In addition, we identified 3 suggestive loci at DOK6 (p-value = 5.3×10−7) and FNDC1 (p-value = 3.0×10−7) for UACR, and KCNQ1 with eGFR (p = 3.6×10−6). Morpholino knockdown of kcnq1 in the zebrafish resulted in abnormal kidney development and filtration capacity. We identified several SNPs in association with eGFR in African Ancestry individuals, as well as 3 suggestive loci for UACR and eGFR. Functional genetic studies support a role for kcnq1 in glomerular development in zebrafish

The gamma-ray burst GRB060614 requires a novel explosive process

Over the past decade our physical understanding of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) has progressed rapidly thanks to the discovery and observation of their long-lived afterglow emission. Long-duration (T < 2 s) GRBs are associated with the explosive deaths of massive stars (``collapsars''), which produce accompanying supernovae, while the short-duration (T > 2 s) GRBs arise from a different origin, which has been argued to be the merger of two compact objects, either neutron stars or black holes. Here we present observations of GRB060614, a 100-s long burst discovered by the Swift satellite, which require the invocation of a new explosive process: either a massive ``collapsar'' that powers a GRB without any associated supernova, or a new type of engine, as long-lived as the collapsar but without any such massive stellar host. We also discuss the properties of this burst's redshift z=0.125 host galaxy, which distinguish it from other long-duration GRBs and suggest that an entirely new type of GRB progenitor may be required